Wood Mackenzie forecasts Brent crude to average $73/barrel in 2025

According to Wood Mackenzie's forecast, the average Brent crude price in 2025 will be $73/barrel, influenced by complex geopolitical and economic factors, including the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Iran.

Share:

Wood Mackenzie has announced that the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach $73 per barrel in 2025. This forecast considers major geopolitical and economic factors, such as potential peace talks between Russia and the United States regarding the Ukraine conflict, as well as ongoing international sanctions against Iran and trade tariffs. These elements significantly influence global supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis estimates that global oil demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, while non-OPEC production is expected to grow by 1.5 million b/d. This supply growth exceeding demand creates challenges for OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 non-OPEC countries), which will need to manage market balance to maintain stability.

Supply and demand dynamics in 2025

Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie, explained that strong production outside OPEC poses a challenge for the organisation, particularly in maintaining market equilibrium. Brent prices are expected to decline throughout the year, from $77/barrel in the first quarter to $70/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting OPEC+’s delicate management of supply.

The projection assumes that OPEC+ will continue its current plan to ease production cuts by 2.2 million b/d between April 2025 and September 2026, depending on market conditions. Regional demand is expected to be driven by the Asia-Pacific region, with China and India leading the growth. Non-OECD countries are forecasted to see an increase of 1.2 million b/d, while OECD countries are expected to experience a slight contraction.

Geopolitical uncertainties and risks

Wood Mackenzie’s forecasts also account for major uncertainties, such as the potential lifting of US sanctions against Russia, the impact of trade tariffs on global GDP growth, and the effects of sanctions on Iran’s oil production. Additionally, the global industrial recovery could support oil demand, although at a limited level compared to pre-pandemic levels.

  • Populaires ​
Prax Group files for insolvency in the UK after losses at Lindsey refinery
Renewable energy: access improving, but financing still insufficient for Africa
Enbridge Gas Ohio challenges tariff ruling cutting its revenues by $30mn
The Indonesian-Chinese lithium-ion battery plant will open with 6.9 GWh in 2026
Natural hydrogen: France on the verge of redefining its national and European energy strategy
Mauritania: Sonatrach and SMH launch strategic partnership in downstream oil sector
Facing an under-equipped downstream sector, Mauritania partners with Sonatrach to create a joint venture aiming to structure petroleum products distribution and reduce import dependency, without yet disclosing specific investments.
Dalinar Energy wins recommendation to acquire Citgo with $7.38bn bid
Dalinar Energy, a subsidiary of Gold Reserve, receives official recommendation from a US court to acquire PDV Holdings, the parent company of refiner Citgo Petroleum, with a $7.38bn bid, despite a higher competing offer from Vitol.
Global Oil Exploration Investments Decline, a First Since 2020
Oil companies may reduce their exploration and production budgets in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and financial caution, according to a new report by U.S. banking group JP Morgan.
US oil inventories unexpectedly rise by 3.8 million barrels
Commercial oil inventories in the United States rose unexpectedly last week, mainly driven by a sharp decline in exports and a significant increase in imports, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
TotalEnergies acquires 25% stake in Block 53 in Suriname and strengthens its offshore presence
TotalEnergies acquires a 25% stake in Block 53 offshore Suriname, joining APA and Petronas after an agreement with Moeve, thereby consolidating its expansion strategy in the region.
Orlen ends Russian oil purchases for Czech refinery after contract expiry
Orlen announces the definitive halt of its Russian oil purchases for the Czech Republic, marking the end of deliveries by Rosneft following the contract expiry, amid evolving logistics and diversification of regional supply sources.
Adura becomes the leading independent oil and gas producer in the North Sea
Equinor and Shell launch Adura, a new joint venture consolidating their main offshore assets in the United Kingdom, aiming to secure energy supply with an expected production of over 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Equinor discovers up to 15 mn barrels of oil at Johan Castberg in the Barents Sea
Equinor announces a new oil discovery estimated at between 9 and 15 mn barrels at the Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, strengthening the reserve potential in Norway's northern region.
Sierra Leone launches extensive offshore oil exploration with 60 potential blocks
Sierra Leone relaunches an ambitious offshore exploration campaign, using a 3D seismic survey to evaluate up to 60 potential oil blocks before opening a new licensing round as early as next October.
Zambia restructures petroleum logistics to stabilise energy supply
Faced with recurrent shortages, Zambia is reorganising its fuel supply chain, notably issuing licences for operating new tanker trucks and service stations to enhance national energy security and reduce external dependence.
Grangemouth Closure: UK Oil Stocks at Highest Level in Three Years
The closure of the Grangemouth refinery has triggered a record increase in UK oil inventories, highlighting growing dependence on imports and an expanding deficit in domestic refining capacity.
Mexco Energy reports 27% increase in annual profit
Mexco Energy Corporation reports an annual net profit of $1.71mn, up 27%, driven by increased hydrocarbon production despite persistently weak natural gas prices in the Permian Basin.
S&P downgrades Ecopetrol to BB, Moody’s maintains Ba1 rating
S&P Global Ratings lowers Ecopetrol's global rating to BB following Colombia's sovereign downgrade, while Moody’s Investors Service confirms the group's Ba1 rating with a stable outlook.
Shell officially rules out any takeover offer for rival BP
Shell group publicly clarifies it is neither considering discussions nor approaches for a potential takeover of its British rival BP, putting an end to recent media speculation about a possible merger between the two oil giants.
Chinese independent refiners poised to increase fuel oil imports
The anticipated increase in the tax deduction rate may encourage independent refineries in Shandong to restart fuel oil imports, compensating for limited crude oil import quotas.
Petro-Victory launches fully-funded drilling campaign in Brazil
Petro-Victory Energy Corp. starts drilling of the AND-5 well in the Potiguar Basin, Brazil, as the first phase of an operation financed through its strategic partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Energia.
Port of Corpus Christi expands capacity for large oil tankers
The Texan Port of Corpus Christi has completed major widening and deepening work designed to accommodate more supertankers, thus strengthening its strategic position in the US market for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust puts Prudhoe Bay royalty up for sale
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust is offering its interest in Prudhoe Bay, North America’s largest oil field, as part of its planned dissolution, assisted by RedOaks Energy Advisors for this strategic asset transaction.
CNOOC partners with KazMunayGas to explore the Zhylyoi subsoil area
CNOOC Limited’s Hong Kong subsidiary and KazMunayGas have concluded a nine-year exploration and production contract covering nine hundred and fifty-eight square kilometres in Kazakhstan, sharing investment and operations equally.
Trump authorizes China to buy Iranian oil, shaking global oil markets
Donald Trump announced that the United States will no longer oppose Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, immediately triggering a drop in global crude oil prices and profoundly reshaping international energy trade partnerships.

LEGAL

FOSSILS

POLICY

RENEWABLE

PLUS

© XMARKET PUBLISHING

Welcome

Your subscription

Included in this subscription:

COMMUNICATE ON ENERGYNEWS