United Kingdom and Europe Facing electricity

The UK is expected to see its record energy exports to Europe decline from November onwards.

Share:

The UK is expected to see its record energy exports to Europe decline from November onwards. The country exported more than 8TWh to European markets this summer. A reversal would be explained by a decline in overall energy production.

NBP gas prices fall against the TTF

The UK has traditionally been a net importer of energy from the European continent with its 4GW interconnection capacity. Nevertheless, the price of NBP (National Balancing Point) gas fell sharply against the TTF price during the summer. Indeed, the price difference between NBP gas and TTF gas reached approximately 90.74MWh in the third quarter.

In addition, the dip in French nuclear generation is driving up prices in France relative to the UK. The National Grid is considering control measures if prices are below the export feed-in tariffs. During the summer, National Grid was buying back exported energy.

Indeed, the buy-back via the interconnector on the Nemo line to Belgium amounted to £9.725MWh. The loss to the UK was £6,000/MWh. However, net imports from the United Kingdom to France continued in October.

The outlook from October onwards

Flows between the Netherlands, Belgium and the United Kingdom, of 1GW each, show a bidirectional trend. Thereafter, net exports from Great Britain will amount to 0.1GW in November, including 1.2GW to France. After that, the UK could return in December to a level of 5.6GW.

The restart will take place after a fire in an IFA -1 interconnector with a capacity of 2GW. This would allow the UK to bring the balance between energy imports and exports to zero. This compares to a net export of 25TWh in 2021.

Finally, projections call for record average import levels of 5.6 GW before a slight decline this summer. The availability of French nuclear power plants, of which less than 50% are in operation, is the variable apart from the weather. Thus, British imports depend on EDF’s ability to restart these 20 reactors by early next year.

European market forecasts

The capacity of the UK subsea interconnector has increased tenfold in recent years. National Grid recalls that the 1.4GW North Sea Link (NSL) was coming on line last year. NSL generated imports of 4.6TWh and exports of 1.1 Wh over this period.

Energy prices reached record levels this past summer. Nevertheless, low-cost, low-carbon energy imports from hydrocarbon-rich Norway were having an impact. In fact, wind power generation capacity remained underutilized during this period.

In addition, the success of the NSL played an important part in Norway’s decision. Oslo decided to reduce its imports and preserve its resources in anticipation of the winter. Market price signals diverge from estimates for connections between Europe and the UK.

The gas for electricity exchange

The gas market spreads are a signal that the NBP will experience an upward price curve in the first quarter of 2023. These forecasts have a significant margin of error. Indeed, the NBP will be close to its central price or slightly below the TTF over this period.

In addition, the UK is expected to continue its net gas exports to the US this winter. The UK’s exit from the European Union in 2020 is projected to play a role. For the first time, this political decision will have consequences on the energy market.

The European Commission is calling for a study on the consequences of the cap, based on a gas-electricity exchange. They wish to analyze the financial impacts of unsubsidized electricity flows to non-European neighboring countries. Indeed, the existence of this gas for electricity exchange on the Iberian Peninsula includes a border adjustment mechanism.

Nearly USD92bn will be invested by major American and international groups in new data centres and energy infrastructure, responding to the surge in electricity demand linked to the rise of artificial intelligence.
Nouakchott has endured lengthy power interruptions for several weeks, highlighting the financial and technical limits of the Mauritanian Electricity Company as Mauritania aims to widen access and green its mix by 2030.
Between 2015 and 2024, four multilateral climate funds committed nearly eight bn USD to clean energy, attracting private capital through concessional terms while Africa and Asia absorbed more than half of the volume.
The Global Energy Policies Hub shows that strategic reserves, gas obligations, cybersecurity and critical-mineral policies are expanding rapidly, lifting oil coverage to 98 % of world imports.
According to a report by Ember, the Chinese government’s appliance trade-in campaign could double residential air-conditioner efficiency gains in 2025 and trim up to USD943mn from household electricity spending this year.
Washington is examining sectoral taxes on polysilicon and drones, two supply chains dominated by China, after triggering Section 232 to measure industrial dependency risks.
The 2025-2034 development plan presented by Terna includes strengthening Sicily’s grid, new interconnections, and major projects to support the region’s growing renewable energy capacity.
Terna and NPC Ukrenergo have concluded a three-year partnership in Rome aimed at strengthening the integration of the Ukrainian grid into the pan-European system, with an in-depth exchange of technological and regulatory expertise.
GE Vernova has secured a major contract to modernise the Kühmoos substation in Germany, enhancing grid reliability and integration capacity for power flows between Germany, France and Switzerland.
The National Energy System Operator forecasts electricity demand to rise to 785 TWh by 2050, underlining the need to modernise grids and integrate more clean energy to support the UK’s energy transition.
Terna has signed a guarantee agreement with SACE and the European Investment Bank to finance the Adriatic Link project, totalling approximately €1bn ($1.08bn) and validated as a major transaction under Italian regulations.
India unveils a series of reforms on oil and gas contracts, introducing a fiscal stability clause to enhance the sector’s attractiveness for foreign companies and boost its growth ambitions in upstream energy.
The European Commission is launching a special fund of EUR2.3bn ($2.5bn) to boost Ukraine’s reconstruction and attract private capital to the energy and infrastructure sectors.
Asia dominated global new renewable energy capacity in 2024 with 71% of installations, while Africa recorded limited growth of only 7.2%, according to the latest annual report from IRENA.
US President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act dramatically changes energy investment rules, imposing restrictions on renewables while favouring hydrocarbons, according to a recent report by consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie.
On July 8, 2025, the Senate validated the Gremillet bill, aimed at structuring France's energy transition with clear objectives for nuclear power, renewable energies, and energy renovation.
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru significantly increase renewable electricity production, reaching nearly 70% of the regional electricity mix, according to a recent Wood Mackenzie study on Latin America's energy sector.
The Canadian government announces an investment of more than $40mn to fund 13 energy projects led by Indigenous communities across the country, aiming to improve energy efficiency and increase local renewable energy use.
The German Ministry of Economy plans to significantly expand aid aimed at reducing industrial electricity costs, increasing eligible companies from 350 to 2,200, at an estimated cost of €4bn ($4.7bn).
A major electricity blackout paralyzed large parts of the Czech Republic, interrupting transport and essential networks, raising immediate economic concerns, and highlighting the vulnerability of energy infrastructures to unforeseen technical incidents.