The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump marks a major shift in the fight against global warming. During his inaugural address, he declared that the United States would once again withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change, an international pact aimed at limiting the rise in global temperatures. This decision is accompanied by a massive strategy to revive fossil fuel production.
The president invoked a “national energy emergency” to justify this pivot, asserting that increasing oil and gas production would reduce energy costs for American households. However, this approach has drawn immediate outrage from environmental advocates and climate experts, who denounce it as a denial of current environmental challenges.
A blow to climate commitments
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, committed the United States to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 61-66% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels. This ambitious target was already at risk, according to several reports, due to delays in implementation. With the new political direction, emission reductions could drop to just 24-40% by 2035, according to the Rhodium Group.
The media outlet Carbon Brief estimates that the United States could generate up to 4 billion additional metric tons of CO2-equivalent emissions by 2030, an amount equivalent to the annual emissions of Europe and Japan combined. These figures highlight the global impact of U.S. political decisions.
Global disengagement
On the international stage, this decision could weaken climate cooperation. While the Paris Agreement is supported by nearly all nations, Washington’s withdrawal could encourage other countries, particularly China and India, to lower their climate ambitions. The recent announcement by Argentine President Javier Milei, a Trump ally, about “reassessing” his country’s climate commitments illustrates this dynamic.
Despite this, optimistic voices emphasize the importance of subnational and private actions. U.S. states, companies, and local organizations have pledged to continue their efforts toward energy transition, despite the lack of federal support.
A different context in 2025
Since the first U.S. withdrawal in 2017, the global economic context has evolved. Investments in renewable energy have reached record levels, and the energy transition now rests on solid economic foundations. According to Laurence Tubiana, architect of the Paris Agreement, the U.S. withdrawal is regrettable but should not derail global momentum toward a low-carbon economy.
However, the ability of non-state actors to fill the void left by the federal government remains uncertain. Gina McCarthy, former climate advisor to Joe Biden, warns that the absence of the United States could weaken coordinated efforts to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C.
