TotalEnergies has presented the 2025 edition of its Energy Outlook report, outlining its vision for the evolution of the global energy system through 2050. Through three distinct scenarios — Trends, Momentum and Rupture — the report highlights growing tensions between emerging countries’ energy needs, energy security imperatives and economic limits to decarbonisation.
Fossil fuels, electrification and regional disparities
According to the “Trends” scenario, which reflects current policies, demand for natural gas would continue to grow until 2040 before plateauing, while coal use would return to its year-2000 levels by 2050. In this configuration, demand for petroleum products would peak in 2040. This scenario anticipates a global temperature increase of between +2.6°C and +2.8°C by 2100. It incorporates an increased deployment of mature technologies such as wind and solar power, electric vehicles and heat pumps, but highlights constraints related to infrastructure, costs and geopolitical tensions.
The “Momentum” scenario sees member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, with China following in 2060. It involves greater electrification of end uses, the near-total elimination of coal in developed countries, and an expanded role for natural gas as a transition fuel. This scenario forecasts a more moderate temperature increase, between +2.2°C and +2.4°C by 2100.
A transition constrained by economic and geopolitical realities
The “Rupture” scenario, built on a normative approach, aims to limit global warming to less than +2°C. It would require unprecedented multilateral cooperation for accelerated decarbonisation, a rapid exit from coal in electricity production and large-scale electrification of end uses. In this case, fossil fuels would still account for 60% of primary energy demand in 2050, compared to 80% today.
The report notes that despite differing trajectories, all three scenarios share common features: a sharp rise in electricity demand, a central role for natural gas as a transition fuel and the need for new oil and gas developments to offset the natural decline of existing fields.
Balancing development with emissions reduction
The document also points out that 4.6 billion people still lack access to a level of energy deemed sufficient for adequate human development. In response, OECD countries are called upon to support global emissions reduction through cooperative mechanisms such as the cross-border carbon credit trading system under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
“Since 2015, the global energy system has supported the development of emerging economies while reducing the carbon intensity of energy produced. Security and cost remain strong constraints, and public policy must prioritise the most cost-effective solutions for reducing emissions,” said Aurélien Hamelle, President Strategy & Sustainability at TotalEnergies.
