The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Essential Cooperation for Sustainable Management of the Nile

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam offers hope for Ethiopia's energy needs and challenges for Egypt and Sudan's water security. Collaborative management is crucial to prevent crises in the Nile Basin.

Partagez:

Ethiopia embarked on the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011, a strategic project to address its energy needs and foster economic development. With a projected capacity of 74 billion cubic meters and an estimated annual electricity production of 16,000 GWh, this dam is the largest in Africa.

For a country where only 45% of the population has access to electricity, the GERD is a crucial solution. By doubling its energy capacity, Ethiopia hopes not only to improve living conditions but also to become a key energy exporter in the region.

However, the GERD’s implications extend beyond Ethiopia’s borders. Its hydrological impacts concern the entire Nile Basin, a vital resource for eleven African countries, including Egypt and Sudan, which fear significant disruptions.

Concerns of Downstream Countries

Egypt, which relies on the Nile for 97% of its water resources, sees the GERD as a potential threat. Concerns center around the reservoir filling periods and the impacts during prolonged droughts. The Aswan Dam, which regulates Egypt’s water resources, could face critical level reductions, jeopardizing the country’s food and energy security.

Sudan shares both risks and opportunities. On one hand, the GERD could regulate the flow of the Blue Nile, reducing flood risks. On the other hand, unilateral management of the Ethiopian dam could cause water imbalances, affecting agricultural projects and domestic needs.

Technical and Political Challenges

Despite a decade of negotiations, no legally binding agreement has been reached between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. Two major points of disagreement persist:

1. The definition of prolonged drought: Egypt considers an annual average flow below 39 billion cubic meters as a drought, while Ethiopia proposes a lower threshold of 35 billion cubic meters.

2. Mitigation policies: The countries diverge on GERD operating levels during droughts. Egypt demands lowering it to 595 meters to protect the Aswan Dam, whereas Ethiopia fears this measure would limit its energy production.

Collaborative Solutions to Avoid Crisis

Experts recommend a concerted management approach based on principles of equitable sharing and increased transparency. A recent study proposes viable scenarios to minimize tensions:

– Temporarily lowering GERD’s operating level: During prolonged droughts, reducing the level to 595 meters could minimize downstream water deficits while maintaining 87% of optimal energy production.

– Establishing a critical threshold for the Aswan Dam: Setting this at 165 meters would activate concerted management mechanisms to prevent a crisis. Real-time monitoring of the Nile’s flow would strengthen decision-making responsiveness.

The Economic Impacts of Failure

A lack of cooperation around the GERD could lead to considerable economic losses. For Egypt, each missing billion cubic meters of water would result in a loss of $0.9 billion, mainly due to reduced agricultural production. This would also exacerbate unemployment and food insecurity.

Ethiopia, on the other hand, risks slowing down GERD exploitation and losing potential revenue from electricity exports. Moreover, non-collaborative management could heighten regional tensions, compromising opportunities for joint development.

Recommendations for Sustainable Cooperation

Several recommendations emerge to address these challenges:

1. Create a regional management committee: A body composed of representatives from the three countries to oversee GERD operations and coordinate responses to droughts.

2. Promote transparency: Real-time sharing of hydrological data would enhance trust and facilitate decision-making.

3. Invest in joint projects: Initiatives for water conservation and modern agricultural infrastructure could reduce environmental impacts and stabilize Nile ecosystems.

4. Adopt a legally binding framework: A clear agreement would define responsibilities and rights for each country to prevent future crises.

According to the 2025 report on global energy access, despite notable progress in renewable energy, insufficient targeted financing continues to hinder electricity and clean cooking access, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
While advanced economies maintain global energy leadership, China and the United States have significantly progressed in the security and sustainability of their energy systems, according to the World Economic Forum's annual report.
On the sidelines of the US–Africa summit in Luanda, Algiers and Luanda consolidate their energy collaboration to better exploit their oil, gas, and mining potential, targeting a common strategy in regional and international markets.
The UK's Climate Change Committee is urging the government to quickly reduce electricity costs to facilitate the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles, judged too slow to achieve the set climate targets.
The European Commission will extend until the end of 2030 an expanded state-aid framework, allowing capitals to fund low-carbon technologies and nuclear power to preserve competitiveness against China and the United States.
Japan's grid operator forecasts an energy shortfall of up to 89 GW by 2050 due to rising demand from semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence technologies.
Energy-intensive European industries will be eligible for temporary state aid to mitigate high electricity prices, according to a new regulatory framework proposed by the European Commission under the "Clean Industrial Deal."
Mauritius seeks international investors to swiftly build a floating power plant of around 100 MW, aiming to secure the national energy supply by January 2026 and address current production shortfalls.
Madrid announces immediate energy storage measures while Lisbon secures its electrical grid, responding to the historic outage that affected the entire Iberian Peninsula in late April.
Indonesia has unveiled its new national energy plan, projecting an increase of 69.5 GW in electricity capacity over ten years, largely funded by independent producers, to address rapidly rising domestic demand.
French Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher condemns the parliamentary moratorium on new renewable energy installations, warning of the potential loss of 150,000 industrial jobs and increased energy dependence on foreign countries.
The European battery regulation, fully effective from August 18, significantly alters industrial requirements related to electric cars and bicycles, imposing strict rules on recycling, supply chains, and transparency for companies.
The European Parliament calls on the Commission to strengthen energy infrastructure and accelerate the implementation of the Clean Industrial Deal to enhance the continent's energy flexibility and security amid increased market volatility.
The European Commission unveils an ambitious plan to modernize electricity grids and introduces the Clean Industrial Deal, mobilizing hundreds of billions of euros to strengthen the continent's industrial and energy autonomy.
In the United States, regulated electric grid operators hold a decisive advantage in connecting new data centres to the grid, now representing 134 GW of projects, according to a Wood Mackenzie report published on June 19.
The French National Assembly approves a specific target of 200 TWh renewable electricity production by 2030 within a legislative text extensively debated about the future national energy mix.
In 2024, US CO₂ emissions remain stable at 5.1bn tonnes, as the Trump administration prepares hydrocarbon-friendly energy policies, raising questions about the future evolution of the American market.
The early publication of France's energy decree triggers strong parliamentary reactions, as the government aims to rapidly secure investments in nuclear and other energy sectors.
Seven weeks after the major Iberian power outage, Spain identifies technical network failures, while the European Investment Bank approves major funding to strengthen the interconnection with France.
The European Union has announced a detailed schedule aiming to definitively halt Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, anticipating internal legal and commercial challenges to overcome.