The future of nuclear SMRs: IDTechEx raises questions

mall modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) are transforming the nuclear industry, making nuclear power competitive, reducing costs and promoting decarbonization. Innovative start-ups and established players compete in this emerging market, offering new designs and revolutionary solutions.

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Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are disrupting the nuclear industry by dramatically reducing the cost of nuclear power, making it competitive with renewables and storage. What’s more, these reactors enable the development of new uses for nuclear energy, promoting decarbonization. At present, SMRs are operational in China and Russia, and the rest of the world is trying to catch up. One start-up could even be the first to put an SMR into service. However, one question remains: in this emerging SMR market, will the agility of the new players surpass the established positions of the nuclear industry giants?

According to IDTechEx’s new report “Nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) 2023-2043”, it is forecast that by 2043, 25% of nuclear-generated electricity will come from SMRs, whereas this percentage is negligible today. This rapid increase will generate a diversity of designs, involving a wide range of organizations. IDTechEx surveyed 83 SMR projects involving many different players, including a large proportion of start-ups. Start-ups are companies founded with the explicit aim of commercializing SMR technology.

NuScale Power’s key role

The nuclear industry is known for its conservatism, with third-generation reactors being evolutions of older designs. However, the smaller size of SMRs and the new nuclear energy use cases they seek to serve offer opportunities for innovative start-ups to stand out from the crowd. They can develop a design evolution or work with new fourth-generation reactor architectures.

An early player in this field is NuScale Power, which has received standard design approval from the US nuclear regulator. NuScale is scaling down pressurized water reactors, using six of them with a combined electrical capacity of 462 MW in its VOYGR-6 design. Its small size means that all primary steam cycle components can be integrated into the reactor pressure vessel, reducing on-site assembly costs. What’s more, passive coolant circulation is possible without the need for pumps, improving design safety.

Some players are taking a more revolutionary approach by developing fourth-generation reactors. For example, Canadian company Terrestrial Energy uses molten salt reactors (MSRs) to decarbonize industrial process heat while supplying electricity to the grid. Light water-cooled reactors, which currently dominate, cannot directly supply heat to a wide range of industries due to their lower operating temperatures. Molten-salt reactors offer higher temperatures without compromising safety, opening up new possibilities.

Strong competition

However, new entrants face significant competition from established players such as GE-Hitachi and Westinghouse Nuclear, who have their own SMR designs at an advanced stage of preparation. These players benefit from pre-existing designs for large nuclear reactors and established supply chains. Despite this, there seems to be plenty of room for new players, as unit project costs for SMRs are much lower, on the order of $1 billion, compared with the tens of billions of dollars needed for a large nuclear power plant. This makes the industry more accessible to the next generation of nuclear companies.

IDTechEx’s report, “Nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) 2023-2043”, offers a comprehensive analysis of the SMR space. It provides twenty-year market forecasts, a comparative assessment of SMR designs, an analysis of applications, and a dissection of the industrial landscape.

Bahrain has concluded a civil nuclear agreement with the United States and formalised a commitment of $17bn in public investments in the US market, further strengthening bilateral cooperation.
Kairos Power has installed the vessel for its third test prototype in Oak Ridge, aiming to validate manufacturing methods for its future Hermes reactor supported by the US Department of Energy.
London and Prague formalise a strategic partnership to develop the nuclear sector, focusing on small modular reactors and industrial cooperation on supply chains.
Experts have broadly approved France’s Cigéo deep nuclear waste repository project, highlighting technical uncertainties that demand stronger guarantees for long-term safety.
Uzbekistan advances its nuclear project by signing a protocol with Hungary for the supply and local assembly of dry cooling systems, expanding its industrial partnerships in the region.
Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe is asking the European Commission to review its $49bn investment to build Poland’s first nuclear power plant, a step required under the Euratom Treaty before any construction permit can be issued.
The International Atomic Energy Agency mission completed on July 11 warns that the National Nuclear Safety Administration must hire staff to oversee a fleet of 59 reactors in operation and 32 more under construction.
Energoatom signed strategic agreements with Westinghouse and Holtec at the Ukraine Recovery Conference, aiming to establish nuclear fuel production and small modular reactor capabilities in the country.
Tehran agrees to reopen its nuclear facilities to the IAEA, aiming to resume negotiations with Washington, while Moscow pushes for a “zero enrichment” agreement without getting involved in supervision.
TerraPower has selected three new American suppliers for its advanced Natrium nuclear reactor, confirming progress on the project located in Kemmerer, Wyoming, intended to replace a retiring coal-fired power plant.
Energy Exploration Technologies acquires Daytona Lithium, an Australian subsidiary of Pantera Lithium, for AUD40mn ($27mn), bringing its strategic lithium basin footprint in Smackover, USA to nearly 50,000 acres.
The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission has identified no major barriers to licensing the ARC-100 reactor, announces ARC Clean Technology.
SE Ignalina, the Lithuanian nuclear operator, has signed a memorandum of understanding with French firm Newcleo to explore the integration of small modular reactors (SMRs) using lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR) technology in Lithuania.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi oversaw the signing of new agreements for the construction of the El Dabaa nuclear power plant, thus strengthening the strategic cooperation between Egypt and Russia.
Vistra Corp receives green light to extend Perry nuclear plant operations in Ohio by 20 years, securing regional electricity supply until 2046 and ensuring operational continuity for all its nuclear reactors in the United States.
EDF will hold a 12.5% stake in the Sizewell C nuclear project in the UK, a €1.3 billion investment announced during Emmanuel Macron’s official visit to London, confirming the strategic nuclear energy alignment between the two countries.
The French Cigéo project, designed to bury the most hazardous radioactive waste deep underground, obtains a crucial technical validation before its final authorization, expected by the end of 2027.
EDF confirms the continuation of its industrial project in Fessenheim for recycling very low-level radioactive metals, a first in France requiring specific regulatory authorizations, following a public debate concluded last February.
NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. formalizes its collaboration with UrAmerica Ltd. to strengthen Argentina’s uranium supply, aiming to secure future nuclear fuel supply chains for the U.S. market.
American companies SHINE Technologies and Standard Nuclear partner to recycle uranium and plutonium, supplying advanced fuel to the nuclear reactor sector and enhancing the national energy security of the United States.