South American oil production is set to grow steadily through 2030, driven by offshore projects in Brazil, Guyana and Suriname, along with developments in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale. This trend aligns with a still-strong global oil demand, with consumption projected to reach 107 million barrels per day in the early 2030s. Forecasts indicate it will remain above 100 million barrels per day through the 2040s.
Offshore projects as a key driver
Since 2020, more than 65% of South America’s conventional oil production comes or will come from offshore fields, supported by floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) units. In Brazil and Guyana, operators have reinforced their presence in deepwater with several units already operational. In Guyana, ExxonMobil is currently running four FPSOs. However, new discoveries have slowed, with only 420 million barrels found this year—the lowest since 2017.
Strong growth in non-OPEC+ volumes
Nearly 60% of conventional under-development or discovered oil volumes—about 5.9 million barrels per day—are expected to come from non-OPEC+ producers by 2030. South America is projected to add more than 560,000 barrels per day this year, ahead of North America. By 2026, the region could surpass 750,000 additional daily barrels, maintaining its strategic position alongside the non-OPEC+ Middle East.
Massive investment through 2030
Cumulative capital expenditure (capex) for conventional oil projects in South America between 2020 and 2030 is expected to reach $197 billion, mostly concentrated in offshore developments. Suriname’s $10.5 billion GranMorgu field is set to begin production in 2028. Last year, upstream investment in the region surpassed $46 billion, the highest since 2015, and is forecast to grow by 10% this year.
Emerging players and new exploration zones
In addition to major producers, Trinidad and Tobago and Peru are attracting new interest. ExxonMobil has signed a new production-sharing contract in Trinidad and Tobago, targeting ultra-deepwater areas that remain largely unexplored. The strategy mirrors the one used in Guyana’s Stabroek Block, which yielded over 13 billion recoverable barrels. In Peru, Chevron, Anadarko (Occidental Petroleum) and Westlawn are jointly exploring three offshore blocks in the Mar de Grau, where a commercial discovery could generate up to 150,000 barrels per day at peak production.
