popular articles

Rystad Energy predicts slower-than-expected low-carbon transition

Oil demand will continue to grow in the medium term, according to Rystad Energy, due to the insufficient development of low-carbon alternatives and their limited economic competitiveness.
The future of oil demand: an energy transition more complex than expected.

Please share:

Rystad Energy’s latest study reveals that the transition to low-carbon alternatives will take longer than expected for the 13 oil-dependent sectors. These sectors, from transport to industry, are showing increasing complexity in their transition, reinforcing the idea that oil demand will remain strong in the years to come. According to the “Oil Macro Scenarios” report, current technological challenges and policy frameworks do not yet allow us to effectively replace oil. Demand for oil is therefore set to continue growing until significant breakthroughs are made in alternative energy technologies.

Transport, a key sector

Around a quarter of the world’s oil demand comes from road passenger transport. EV adoption, while growing, faced obstacles in 2022, with only 19% of global EV sales. Factors such as insufficient charging infrastructure and low consumer acceptance are holding back this transition. The heavy road haulage and marine industries share similar challenges. Current alternatives such as batteries and alternative fuels are not yet sufficiently developed to compete with oil in terms of energy density and cost.

Industry and petrochemicals

Industrial sectors, including petrochemicals, account for 42.3% of global oil demand. Demand for plastics, fuelled by an expanding global middle class, will continue to grow, necessitating increased investment in mechanical and chemical recycling. Other energy-intensive industrial sectors, such as steel and cement production, will also find it hard to replace oil in the near future. Although hydrogen is seen as a viable alternative, its high cost and underdeveloped supply chain limit its rapid adoption.

Emissions reduction outlook

Despite rising demand for oil, it is still possible to reduce global emissions in the medium term. The rapid deployment of clean technologies and renewable energy sources, notably solar photovoltaics, can offset some of this demand. The rapid substitution of solar power for coal in electricity generation has already shown positive results. To achieve a rapid reduction in emissions, accelerated investment in clean technologies and renewable energies is essential. This will require a thorough understanding of the global energy system and concerted efforts to deploy these technologies on a large scale.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Recently published in

France proposes a stronger alliance between the European Union and China to counter the absence of the United States in the fight against climate change, with a summit scheduled for July 2025.
Hydro-Québec announces a 10 G$ investment to enhance energy efficiency through various initiatives by 2035, creating over 5,000 jobs and reducing operating costs for Quebec customers.
Hydro-Québec announces a 10 G$ investment to enhance energy efficiency through various initiatives by 2035, creating over 5,000 jobs and reducing operating costs for Quebec customers.
The UK government and Italian energy company Eni have announced the financial closing of a project aimed at burying millions of tonnes of CO2 in the Irish Sea, an ambitious initiative to reduce industrial emissions.
The UK government and Italian energy company Eni have announced the financial closing of a project aimed at burying millions of tonnes of CO2 in the Irish Sea, an ambitious initiative to reduce industrial emissions.
The United States strongly criticised anti-fossil fuel policies at the International Energy Agency (IEA) summit, highlighting their dangers to global energy security.
The United States strongly criticised anti-fossil fuel policies at the International Energy Agency (IEA) summit, highlighting their dangers to global energy security.
Countries such as Brazil and Australia are criticised for overstating the CO2 absorption capacity of their forests, a practice that undermines their commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, according to a report by Climate Analytics.
In London, global officials gather to discuss energy security amid rising geopolitical tensions. Disagreements persist on the role of renewable energy in meeting global demand.
In London, global officials gather to discuss energy security amid rising geopolitical tensions. Disagreements persist on the role of renewable energy in meeting global demand.
As a parliamentary debate approaches, twenty energy organizations urge lawmakers to act to reduce France's reliance on fossil fuels by accelerating the electrification of uses.
As a parliamentary debate approaches, twenty energy organizations urge lawmakers to act to reduce France's reliance on fossil fuels by accelerating the electrification of uses.
Nigeria aims to increase its electricity production capacity by 4,000 MW by 2026 to meet the growing demand of the industrial sector, in a context of reforms and partnerships with international players.
Nigeria aims to increase its electricity production capacity by 4,000 MW by 2026 to meet the growing demand of the industrial sector, in a context of reforms and partnerships with international players.
EDF’s outgoing CEO, Luc Rémont, claims French electricity will be more competitive than that of the United States, despite ongoing criticisms from industrialists about high tariffs.
Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and regulatory uncertainty in the United States are slowing investments in wind, solar, and energy storage, pushing the sector into a period of caution and market volatility.
Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and regulatory uncertainty in the United States are slowing investments in wind, solar, and energy storage, pushing the sector into a period of caution and market volatility.
The French government activates five funding mechanisms to support industrial decarbonisation projects through the France 2030 plan, targeting major sites, SMEs and high-emission industrial zones.
The French government activates five funding mechanisms to support industrial decarbonisation projects through the France 2030 plan, targeting major sites, SMEs and high-emission industrial zones.
Paris releases a new €400mn funding package to support industrial projects aimed at reducing emissions under the France 2030 programme.
Paris releases a new €400mn funding package to support industrial projects aimed at reducing emissions under the France 2030 programme.
The massive withdrawal of American financial support and the reduction of European aid could jeopardize energy projects in Africa, profoundly altering their financing structure and the continent's commitments.
The Vietnamese government has raised its renewable energy targets in a new version of its national energy plan, responding to continued growth in electricity demand.
The Vietnamese government has raised its renewable energy targets in a new version of its national energy plan, responding to continued growth in electricity demand.
A massive outage plunged Puerto Rico into darkness on Wednesday, leaving approximately 1.1 million households without electricity after an unexpected shutdown of all its power plants.
A massive outage plunged Puerto Rico into darkness on Wednesday, leaving approximately 1.1 million households without electricity after an unexpected shutdown of all its power plants.
The Czech Republic has ended its dependency on Russian oil after more than six decades, a major shift made in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Czech Republic has ended its dependency on Russian oil after more than six decades, a major shift made in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The European power purchase agreement (PPA) market for renewables reached 19 GW of new capacity in 2024, with growing momentum for hybrid contracts including storage.
Industry Minister Marc Ferracci criticised the Rassemblement National's stance on energy, accusing it of hindering planned investments in renewables in favour of fossil fuel imports.
Industry Minister Marc Ferracci criticised the Rassemblement National's stance on energy, accusing it of hindering planned investments in renewables in favour of fossil fuel imports.
Bill 69 sparks protests in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, where several organisations denounce a risk of privatising Quebec’s electricity sector.
Bill 69 sparks protests in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, where several organisations denounce a risk of privatising Quebec’s electricity sector.
Wind and solar energy accounted for nearly one-fifth of Türkiye’s electricity generation in 2024, according to an analysis by think tank Ember, driven by a strong increase in installed capacity.
Wind and solar energy accounted for nearly one-fifth of Türkiye’s electricity generation in 2024, according to an analysis by think tank Ember, driven by a strong increase in installed capacity.
France’s multi-year energy strategy shifts focus away from photovoltaics toward flexibility measures, including battery storage, to address growing imbalances in the electricity market.
France’s energy regulator unveils its first observatory dedicated to renewable electricity purchase agreements, highlighting a recent but still marginal growth compared to State-backed mechanisms.
France’s energy regulator unveils its first observatory dedicated to renewable electricity purchase agreements, highlighting a recent but still marginal growth compared to State-backed mechanisms.
The French government plans to adopt within two weeks a decree outlining the decade’s energy objectives, restarting nuclear power and preparing for a parliamentary debate on energy sovereignty.
The French government plans to adopt within two weeks a decree outlining the decade’s energy objectives, restarting nuclear power and preparing for a parliamentary debate on energy sovereignty.
The expansion of solar and wind capacity is multiplying hours of negative prices on European electricity markets, weakening the sector's economic balance while reshaping export and storage dynamics.
The expansion of solar and wind capacity is multiplying hours of negative prices on European electricity markets, weakening the sector's economic balance while reshaping export and storage dynamics.

Advertising