Rystad Energy predicts slower-than-expected low-carbon transition

Oil demand will continue to grow in the medium term, according to Rystad Energy, due to the insufficient development of low-carbon alternatives and their limited economic competitiveness.
The future of oil demand: an energy transition more complex than expected.

Partagez:

Rystad Energy’s latest study reveals that the transition to low-carbon alternatives will take longer than expected for the 13 oil-dependent sectors. These sectors, from transport to industry, are showing increasing complexity in their transition, reinforcing the idea that oil demand will remain strong in the years to come. According to the “Oil Macro Scenarios” report, current technological challenges and policy frameworks do not yet allow us to effectively replace oil. Demand for oil is therefore set to continue growing until significant breakthroughs are made in alternative energy technologies.

Transport, a key sector

Around a quarter of the world’s oil demand comes from road passenger transport. EV adoption, while growing, faced obstacles in 2022, with only 19% of global EV sales. Factors such as insufficient charging infrastructure and low consumer acceptance are holding back this transition. The heavy road haulage and marine industries share similar challenges. Current alternatives such as batteries and alternative fuels are not yet sufficiently developed to compete with oil in terms of energy density and cost.

Industry and petrochemicals

Industrial sectors, including petrochemicals, account for 42.3% of global oil demand. Demand for plastics, fuelled by an expanding global middle class, will continue to grow, necessitating increased investment in mechanical and chemical recycling. Other energy-intensive industrial sectors, such as steel and cement production, will also find it hard to replace oil in the near future. Although hydrogen is seen as a viable alternative, its high cost and underdeveloped supply chain limit its rapid adoption.

Emissions reduction outlook

Despite rising demand for oil, it is still possible to reduce global emissions in the medium term. The rapid deployment of clean technologies and renewable energy sources, notably solar photovoltaics, can offset some of this demand. The rapid substitution of solar power for coal in electricity generation has already shown positive results. To achieve a rapid reduction in emissions, accelerated investment in clean technologies and renewable energies is essential. This will require a thorough understanding of the global energy system and concerted efforts to deploy these technologies on a large scale.

According to the 2025 report on global energy access, despite notable progress in renewable energy, insufficient targeted financing continues to hinder electricity and clean cooking access, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
While advanced economies maintain global energy leadership, China and the United States have significantly progressed in the security and sustainability of their energy systems, according to the World Economic Forum's annual report.
On the sidelines of the US–Africa summit in Luanda, Algiers and Luanda consolidate their energy collaboration to better exploit their oil, gas, and mining potential, targeting a common strategy in regional and international markets.
The UK's Climate Change Committee is urging the government to quickly reduce electricity costs to facilitate the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles, judged too slow to achieve the set climate targets.
The European Commission will extend until the end of 2030 an expanded state-aid framework, allowing capitals to fund low-carbon technologies and nuclear power to preserve competitiveness against China and the United States.
Japan's grid operator forecasts an energy shortfall of up to 89 GW by 2050 due to rising demand from semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence technologies.
Energy-intensive European industries will be eligible for temporary state aid to mitigate high electricity prices, according to a new regulatory framework proposed by the European Commission under the "Clean Industrial Deal."
Mauritius seeks international investors to swiftly build a floating power plant of around 100 MW, aiming to secure the national energy supply by January 2026 and address current production shortfalls.
Madrid announces immediate energy storage measures while Lisbon secures its electrical grid, responding to the historic outage that affected the entire Iberian Peninsula in late April.
Indonesia has unveiled its new national energy plan, projecting an increase of 69.5 GW in electricity capacity over ten years, largely funded by independent producers, to address rapidly rising domestic demand.
French Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher condemns the parliamentary moratorium on new renewable energy installations, warning of the potential loss of 150,000 industrial jobs and increased energy dependence on foreign countries.
The European battery regulation, fully effective from August 18, significantly alters industrial requirements related to electric cars and bicycles, imposing strict rules on recycling, supply chains, and transparency for companies.
The European Parliament calls on the Commission to strengthen energy infrastructure and accelerate the implementation of the Clean Industrial Deal to enhance the continent's energy flexibility and security amid increased market volatility.
The European Commission unveils an ambitious plan to modernize electricity grids and introduces the Clean Industrial Deal, mobilizing hundreds of billions of euros to strengthen the continent's industrial and energy autonomy.
In the United States, regulated electric grid operators hold a decisive advantage in connecting new data centres to the grid, now representing 134 GW of projects, according to a Wood Mackenzie report published on June 19.
The French National Assembly approves a specific target of 200 TWh renewable electricity production by 2030 within a legislative text extensively debated about the future national energy mix.
In 2024, US CO₂ emissions remain stable at 5.1bn tonnes, as the Trump administration prepares hydrocarbon-friendly energy policies, raising questions about the future evolution of the American market.
The early publication of France's energy decree triggers strong parliamentary reactions, as the government aims to rapidly secure investments in nuclear and other energy sectors.
Seven weeks after the major Iberian power outage, Spain identifies technical network failures, while the European Investment Bank approves major funding to strengthen the interconnection with France.
The European Union has announced a detailed schedule aiming to definitively halt Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, anticipating internal legal and commercial challenges to overcome.