Russian oil exports up in October despite internal challenges

Russian oil exports could rise in October, despite internal challenges related to refining capacity. This dynamic raises questions about the potential impact on the global market and the country's energy policy.

Share:

Port de Primorsk, Russie

Russia’s oil exports could see an increase in October, according to industry sources.
As domestic refineries emerge from a period of intense maintenance, their processing capacity is unlikely to increase significantly.
Western ports, notably Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk, are at the center of this dynamic, with forecasts suggesting an increase in loadings despite initial expectations of a decline.
Industry sources indicate that several refineries will complete their maintenance work next month, but other facilities will reduce production to compensate for shutdowns in the country in previous months.
This situation means that overall throughput at Russian refineries will remain stable at around 5 million barrels per day, similar to September.
As a result, more oil will be available for export.

Export prospects

An industry insider said,

“I expect a slight increase in Russia’s oil exports in October. I doubt that all repairs will be completed in time,”

underlining the uncertainties surrounding the resumption of refinery operations.
Indeed, some 3.9 million tonnes of refining capacity will be offline this month, representing a 34% increase on August.
This situation could create an imbalance between domestic supply and export needs.
The Russian authorities have not yet published provisional export volumes for the Baltic and Black Sea ports for October.
However, September exports are expected to rise by 4.5% on August, reaching 2.04 million barrels per day, due to the addition of cargoes last week.
This trend suggests a willingness to maintain competitive export levels despite domestic challenges.

Impact on the global market

The potential increase in Russian exports could have repercussions on the global oil market, particularly in a context where prices are already influenced by geopolitical and economic factors.
Traders are keeping a close eye on these developments, as an increased supply of Russian oil could exert downward pressure on prices, especially if other producers, such as those in OPEC, maintain restricted production levels.
Fluctuations in Russian exports are also linked to the dynamics of global demand.
While some regions, notably Asia, continue to show sustained interest in Russian oil, other markets may adopt a more cautious approach due to sanctions and environmental concerns.
This duality in demand could influence Russia’s export strategies in the short and medium term.

Consequences for energy policy

The current state of Russian oil exports raises questions about the country’s energy policy.
With declining refining capacity and increasing dependence on exports, Russia may have to reassess its strategic priorities.
Investment in refining infrastructure and decarbonization technologies could become crucial to maintaining competitiveness on the global market.
Industry players also need to consider the implications of these changes for international trade relations.
Russia’s ability to adapt its exports to fluctuations in global demand could play a decisive role in its position on the energy market.
Companies must therefore remain vigilant and ready to adjust their strategies in line with changes in the global energy landscape.
Recent developments concerning Russian oil exports illustrate the complexity and interconnectedness of energy markets.
As Russia navigates between the need to maintain its exports and internal challenges linked to its refining capacities, industry players need to analyze these dynamics to anticipate future trends.
Adaptability and responsiveness to market changes will be essential for companies operating in this constantly evolving sector.

The expansion of the global oil and gas fishing market is accelerating on the back of offshore projects, with annual growth estimated at 5.7% according to The Insight Partners.
The Competition Bureau has required Schlumberger to divest major assets to finalise the acquisition of ChampionX, thereby reducing the risks of market concentration in Canada’s oilfield services sector. —
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. confirms the acquisition of 1,608,182 common shares for a total amount of USD3.46mn, as part of its public buyback offer in Canada, resulting in a reduction of its free float.
OPEC slightly adjusts its production forecasts for 2025-2026 while projecting stable global demand growth, leaving OPEC+ significant room to increase supply without destabilizing global oil markets.
Talks between European Union member states stall on the adoption of the eighteenth sanctions package targeting Russian oil, due to ongoing disagreements over the proposed price ceiling.
Three new oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan have been targeted by explosive drones, bringing the number of affected sites in this strategic region to five in one week, according to local authorities.
An explosion at 07:00 at an HKN Energy facility forced ShaMaran Petroleum to shut the Sarsang field while an inquiry determines damage and the impact on regional exports.
The Canadian producer issues USD 237 mn in senior notes at 6.875 % to repay bank debt, repurchase USD 73 mn of 2027 notes and push most of its maturity schedule to 2030.
BP revised upwards its production forecast for the second quarter of 2025, citing stronger-than-expected results from its US shale unit. However, lower oil prices and refinery maintenance shutdowns weighed on overall results.
Belgrade is engaged in complex negotiations with Washington to obtain a fifth extension of sanctions relief for the Serbian oil company NIS, which is majority-owned by Russian groups.
European Union ambassadors are close to reaching an agreement on a new sanctions package aimed at reducing the Russian oil price cap, with measures impacting several energy and financial sectors.
Backbone Infrastructure Nigeria Limited is investing $15bn to develop a 500,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Ondo State, a major project aimed at boosting Nigeria’s refining capacity.
The Central Energy Fund’s takeover of the Sapref refinery introduces major financial risks for South Africa, with the facility still offline and no clear restart strategy released so far.
PetroTal Corp. records production growth in the second quarter of 2025, improves its cash position and continues replacing key equipment at its main oil sites in Peru.
An explosion caused by a homemade explosive device in northeastern Colombia has forced Cenit, a subsidiary of Ecopetrol, to temporarily suspend operations on the strategic Caño Limón-Coveñas pipeline, crucial to the country's oil supply.
U.S. legislation eases access to federal lands for oil production, but fluctuations in crude prices may limit concrete impacts on investment and medium-term production, according to industry experts.
Permex Petroleum Corporation has completed a US$2mn fundraising by issuing convertible debentures, aimed at strengthening its cash position, without using intermediaries, and targeting a single institutional investor.
Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) recorded $17.52bn in export sales in 2024, benefiting from increased volumes due to U.S. licences granted to foreign partners, according to an internal document seen by Reuters.
The detection of zinc in Mars crude extracted off the coast of Louisiana forced the US government to draw on its strategic reserves to support Gulf Coast refineries.
Commissioning of a 1.2-million-ton hydrocracking unit at the TANECO site confirms the industrial expansion of the complex and its ability to diversify refined fuel production.