Russian oil exports reach peak since Ukraine invasion (IEA)

Russian oil exports reach record levels despite Western sanctions, reports the IEA. Global oil demand is expected to continue to grow in 2023, according to the same source.

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Russian oil exports in April reached their highest level since the start of the invasion of Ukraine despite heavy Western sanctions, a windfall of $15 billion, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced Tuesday.

The Paris-based international organization said in its monthly report that Russian exports reached 8.3 million barrels per day last month as the country failed to carry out its threat to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day. “It is possible that Russia will increase its volumes to compensate for the loss of revenue,” the IEA observed.

Despite international sanctions on its oil, Russia manages to redirect its hydrocarbon exports to other countries (China, India, Turkey …) but Moscow “seems to have some difficulty in finding buyers for its crude oil and oil products,” the report said. “In April, Russian oil exports reached a post-invasion peak of 8.3 million barrels per day” (including refined products), the IEA writes, representing an increase in revenue “by $1.7 billion” to $15 billion.

Since the sanctions imposed on December 5 on Russian crude oil transported by sea, a second EU embargo on purchases of Russian oil products, coupled with a ceiling price for these products applied by the G7 countries, has been in force since February 5. In retaliation for these sanctions enacted in response to Moscow’s offensive against Ukraine launched in February 2022, Russia warned on February 10 that it would reduce its production by 500,000 barrels per day.

The topic of loopholes that allow Moscow to mitigate the impact of G7 sanctions on its economy will be discussed at the summit of leaders of industrialized countries to be held from Friday in Japan. At the same time, the report points to a “recovery in Chinese demand exceeding expectations” with “an all-time high in March of 16 million barrels per day” for the Asian country, the world’s second largest oil consumer behind the United States. Global oil demand, meanwhile, “is expected to increase by 2.2 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2023 to an average of 102 million barrels per day,” the same source said.

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