Russian Gas Flows via Ukraine in September Reach 1.26 Billion m³, According to AGPU

Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine reached 1.26 billion cubic meters in September, representing 39% of the contractual volume. The transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine will expire at the end of the year, raising concerns about European supply.

Share:

Gain full professional access to energynews.pro from 4.90€/month.
Designed for decision-makers, with no long-term commitment.

Over 30,000 articles published since 2021.
150 new market analyses every week to decode global energy trends.

Monthly Digital PRO PASS

Immediate Access
4.90€/month*

No commitment – cancel anytime, activation in 2 minutes.

*Special launch offer: 1st month at the indicated price, then 14.90 €/month, no long-term commitment.

Annual Digital PRO Pass

Full Annual Access
99€/year*

To access all of energynews.pro without any limits

*Introductory annual price for year one, automatically renewed at 149.00 €/year from the second year.

Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine reached 1.26 billion cubic meters in September, marking a slight increase of 0.5% compared to the previous year. However, this volume represents only 39% of the contracted transit, according to data published on October 9 by the Ukrainian Gas Production Group Association (AGPU).

Since the beginning of 2024, transit flows totaled 11.6 billion cubic meters, recording a 7% year-on-year increase. Despite this rise, volumes remain significantly below the contractual levels established in the transit agreement signed in December 2019 between Russia and Ukraine, which is set to expire at the end of 2024.

Impact on the European Gas Market

The reduction in transit volumes has significant repercussions on the European gas market. Gas prices for January and February 2025 delivery on the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) have reached record levels, becoming the highest of all future delivery periods planned until 2030. Platts, a subsidiary of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the January 2025 TTF contract at €39.78/MWh and the February 2025 contract at €39.92/MWh, up from a day-ahead assessment of €38.05/MWh.

Consequences of the Agreement Expiration

The transit agreement, which stipulates “ship-or-pay” conditions obligating Gazprom to pay for transit whether it uses it or not, is set to expire at the end of the year. Naftogaz, the Ukrainian state-owned company, reported on September 26 that it earned a total of 20.409 billion hryvnias ($496 million) from the transit of Russian gas in the first half of 2024. However, the cost of organizing the transit amounts to 19.192 billion hryvnias ($377 million), meaning that three-quarters of the revenue from Gazprom is used to maintain the transit service.

Perspectives and International Debates

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reaffirmed on October 7 that Ukraine would not extend the transit agreement with Moscow. This statement came after Shmyhal met with his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico, who has been advocating for the continued transit of Russian gas via Ukraine after the current agreement expires. Slovakia, along with Austria, remains heavily dependent on Russian gas imports supplied via Ukraine, complicating negotiations and future prospects for transit.

Gas Sales on the Ukrainian Exchange

Additionally, AGPU reported that 379 million cubic meters of gas were sold in September on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange, with a weighted average price of 14,452 hryvnias per 1,000 cubic meters ($350 per 1,000 cubic meters). Naftogaz was the most active participant during the month, purchasing 313 million cubic meters of gas, or 83% of the total transactions. Since April 2023, private producers and traders have begun selling gas on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange in response to a decline in consumption and purchases by the industrial sector in the country.

Historical Transit Flows

Russian gas transit via Ukraine peaked at 117 billion cubic meters in 2008 but fell to just 14.65 billion cubic meters last year. This drastic decrease reflects geopolitical tensions and changes in trade agreements between the two countries.

The gas pipeline network is managed by GTSOU, the Ukrainian network operator, while Naftogaz signed the transit agreement with Gazprom in 2019, defining the conditions and transit volumes for the 2020-2024 period. The continuation of these flows will largely depend on negotiations between Kiev and Moscow, as well as the energy needs of countries dependent on Ukrainian transit.

Backed by an ambitious public investment plan, Angola is betting on gas to offset declining oil output, but the Angola LNG plant in Soyo continues to face operational constraints.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb denounced fossil fuel imports from Russia by Hungary and Slovakia as the EU prepares its 19th sanctions package against Moscow.
Japanese giant JERA has signed a letter of intent to purchase one million tonnes of LNG per year from Alaska, as part of a strategic energy agreement with the United States.
US-based Chevron has submitted a bid with HelleniQ Energy to explore four offshore blocks south of Crete, marking a new strategic step in gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean.
GTT has been selected by Samsung Heavy Industries to design cryogenic tanks for a floating natural gas liquefaction unit, scheduled for deployment at an offshore site in Africa.
A consortium led by BlackRock is in talks to raise up to $10.3 billion to finance a gas infrastructure deal with Aramco, including a dual-tranche loan structure and potential sukuk issuance.
TotalEnergies commits to Train 4 of the Rio Grande LNG project in Texas, consolidating its position in liquefied natural gas with a 10% direct stake and a 1.5 Mtpa offtake agreement.
US producer EQT has secured a twenty-year liquefied natural gas supply contract with Commonwealth LNG, tied to a Gulf Coast terminal under development.
The Chief Executive Officer of TotalEnergies said that NextDecade would formalise on Tuesday a final investment decision for a new liquefaction unit under the Rio Grande LNG project in the United States.
Monkey Island LNG has awarded McDermott the design of a gas terminal with a potential capacity of 26 MTPA, using a modular format to increase on-site output density and reduce execution risks.
The Voskhod and Zarya vessels, targeted by Western sanctions, departed China’s Beihai terminal after potentially offloading liquefied natural gas from the Arctic LNG 2 project.
ADNOC Gas will join the FTSE Emerging Index on September 22, potentially unlocking up to $250mn in liquidity, according to market projections.
Norwegian company BlueNord has revised downward its production forecasts for the Tyra gas field for the third quarter, following unplanned outages and more impactful maintenance than anticipated.
Monkey Island LNG adopts ConocoPhillips' Optimized Cascade® process for its 26 MTPA terminal in Louisiana, establishing a technology partnership focused on operational efficiency and competitive gas export pricing.
NextDecade has signed a liquefied natural gas supply agreement with EQT for 1.5 million tonnes annually from Rio Grande LNG Train 5, pending a final investment decision.
Sawgrass LNG & Power has renewed its liquefied natural gas supply agreement with state-owned BNECL, consolidating a commercial cooperation that began in 2016.
Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation have signed a binding memorandum to build the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, set to deliver 50 bcm of Russian gas per year to China via Mongolia.
Permex Petroleum signed a $3 million purchase option on oil and gas assets in Texas to support a strategy combining energy production and Bitcoin mining.
Enbridge announces the implementation of two major natural gas transmission projects aimed at strengthening regional supply and supporting the LNG market.
Commonwealth LNG’s Louisiana liquefied natural gas project clears a decisive regulatory step with final approval from the U.S. Department of Energy for exports to non-free trade agreement countries.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.