The implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (Article 6) shifts attention from “why” to “how,” with an expected pivot from voluntary markets to compliance uses. Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMO, crédits transférés internationalement) take a central role once a Corresponding Adjustment (CA, ajustement correspondant) confirms bilateral accounting between countries. National trajectories defined by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC, contributions déterminées au niveau national) structure the balance between import needs for reductions and export capacities. Early aggregated sovereign announcements exceed 87 Mt of purchases by 2030, while the rise of domestic markets broadens the buyer base.
From PACM standardization to bilateral granularity
The Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM, mécanisme de créditing de l’Accord de Paris) offers a standardized path for registration and issuance, open to private developers and sovereign or corporate buyers. More than 1,000 projects have been filed under this window, with traceability consolidated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, Convention-cadre des Nations unies sur les changements climatiques). In parallel, Article 6.2 relies on bilateral arrangements, from government-to-government (G2G, gouvernement à gouvernement) to “trade lanes” enabling business-to-government (B2G, entreprise-État) or business-to-business (B2B, entre entreprises) transactions when local regulation allows. To date, 103 Article 6.2 agreements signed or in progress involve more than 60 jurisdictions, signaling a multiplication of exchange corridors with differentiated specifications.
Host countries refine their CA authorization frameworks with variable export schedules, either a fixed per-tonne levy or a share of proceeds (part de revenus). Administrative clarity, inter-ministerial coherence, and controlled processing timelines attract investment flows. Case studies show a rapid pull effect once the national one-stop shop is operational and export rights are legible for developers. The calibration of levies and sectoral whitelists directly determines the profile of exportable supply over the decade.
Expanding regulated demand and sectoral spillovers
Regulated credit demand—domestic and international—could increase more than fivefold between 2024 and 2030, driven by new national markets coming online and the expansion of existing schemes. Sectoral programs reinforce this momentum: the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO, Organisation de l’aviation civile internationale) has operationalized eligibility criteria for the first phase of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA, mécanisme de compensation et de réduction pour l’aviation internationale). The International Maritime Organization (IMO, Organisation maritime internationale) is finalizing a mechanism where top-performing vessels transfer units to laggards, with regulatory adoption expected. These frameworks structure time-phased demand pools, improving developers’ visibility on offtake flows.
Domestic markets expand in parallel with heterogeneous designs: some prioritize domestic supply, others explicitly integrate ITMOs into compliance rules. Anticipation of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM, mécanisme d’ajustement carbone aux frontières) increases interest in traceable prices and product carbon content at import. This combination creates a gradient of specifications where fungibility remains partial but liquidity increases through the aggregation of demand pockets.
Accounting, legal and financial infrastructure: the scaling foundation
Rising obligations for Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV, mesure, reporting et vérification) and emissions disclosure standards strengthen national inventories. Frameworks such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD, directive européenne sur le reporting de durabilité) and adoption of International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB, conseil international des normes de durabilité) norms reposition carbon data as financial information. The debate on product carbon footprint fosters methodological convergence between the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG Protocol, protocole sur les gaz à effet de serre) and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO, Organisation internationale de normalisation), aiming for clearer cross-border trade.
The market ecosystem equips itself with integrity and traceability tools: the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM, conseil d’intégrité du marché volontaire) issues methodological labels, while meta-registries and legal frameworks—including International Institute for the Unification of Private Law (UNIDROIT, institut international pour l’unification du droit privé) guidance on carbon title—clarify ownership. On political risk, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA, agence multilatérale de garantie des investissements) now insures private dossiers including CA status protection, facilitating access to non-recourse financing.
Supply constraints and production lead times
Average timelines from project initiation to first issuance exceed 24 months, imposing earlier pipeline preparation to keep pace with demand. The rebalancing toward regulatory specifications—especially the CA requirement—reveals portfolio mismatches: certain methodologies, origins, or vintages align less with importer whitelists. Price and volume visibility remain under construction, which can defer final investment decisions until export corridors, levies, and eligibility rules are stabilized.
Importing countries organize tenders with precise criteria on project types and jurisdictions of origin, reducing buyer-side uncertainty while heightening the need for upstream alignment. As these calendars materialize, developers adjust their technological mix—industrial reductions, nature-based sinks, removals—and their strategy of arbitrage among domestic markets, PACM, and 6.2 bilateral routes.
Path to 2030: liquidity, heterogeneity, and execution discipline
A conservative scenario places total credit demand—voluntary and regulated—above 700 Mt per year by 2030, with a dominant regulated share. Liquidity will build in layers: sectoral obligations, national markets, sovereign purchases, and selective ITMO integration. Heterogeneity will remain a useful feature of the asset, reflecting national preferences and cost differentials, provided registries, corresponding adjustments, and accounting rules are interoperable.
For market participants, operational priorities center on industrializing CA authorization processes, standardizing PACM documentation, aligning MRV with import requirements, and securing bankability via offtake contracts and risk transfer. The question becomes less the legitimacy of the carbon price than its capacity to channel predictable flows, a necessary condition to arbitrate capital, timelines, and regulatory exposure.
