The latest monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reveals complex dynamics in the global oil market, with several OPEC+ alliance members exceeding their production quotas in July 2025. Russia increased its production by 98,000 barrels per day to reach 9.12 million daily barrels, 17,000 barrels above its adjusted target including compensations for previous overproduction. This increase comes as Moscow was supposed to compensate for 137,000 barrels per day of excess production accumulated during the voluntary reduction period. Russian production in the second quarter averaged 8.995 million barrels per day, compared to 8.972 million in the first quarter.
Kazakhstan Main Violator of OPEC+ Agreements
Kazakhstan emerges as the main violator of OPEC+ commitments with production of 1.827 million barrels per day in July, exceeding its quota by 439,000 daily barrels. The eight countries applying voluntary reductions collectively produced 31.701 million barrels per day, 371,000 barrels above the agreed plan after compensations. The United Arab Emirates exceeded their quota by 10,000 barrels per day, Oman by 9,000 barrels, while Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria and Saudi Arabia remained below their respective quotas. The alliance as a whole, excluding Libya, Iran and Venezuela exempt from cuts, produced 36.479 million daily barrels, 47,000 barrels below the overall target.
The gradual exit from voluntary restrictions of 2.2 million barrels per day for eight OPEC+ members should now be completed by September 2025, a year earlier than initially planned. This acceleration reflects the organization’s assessment of a favorable oil market, with a gradual monthly production increase since April 2025. OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025, bringing total demand to 105.14 million daily barrels. For 2026, the organization raised its forecasts by 100,000 barrels per day, anticipating growth of 1.4 million daily barrels to reach 106.52 million.
Russian Commercial Repositioning Towards Asia
Oil trade flows reveal a consolidation of Russia’s position in Asian markets. The share of Russian oil in Indian imports reached 45% in June, compared to 44% in May, according to Kpler data cited by OPEC. Iraq accounted for 18% of deliveries to India, Saudi Arabia 12%. Total Indian imports fell below 5 million barrels per day for the first time in five months, reaching 4.86 million. In China, the Russian share slightly declined to 17% from 18% the previous month, with Saudi Arabia occupying second position with 16% of supplies, followed by Malaysia at 14% and Iraq at 10%.
Total Chinese imports jumped 11% month-on-month to reach 12.2 million barrels per day in June, marking their highest level in 22 months. OPEC predicts that India, China and other Asian economies will represent the bulk of demand growth, contributing 1.2 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. Supply from non-OPEC+ countries should grow by 800,000 barrels per day this year to reach 54.01 million, then by an additional 600,000 barrels in 2026. The United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina will constitute the main drivers of this expansion, offsetting the expected decline in Angola.
