popular articles

OPEC Reduces Growth Forecast for Global Oil Demand in 2024-2025

OPEC Revises Down Its Global Oil Demand Estimates for 2024 and 2025, Forecasting Consumption of 104.1 Million Barrels per Day in 2024, Compared to 102.2 Million in 2023.

Please share:

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has recently revised its forecasts regarding global oil demand for the years 2024 and 2025. According to the latest monthly report published on Monday, OPEC anticipates a more moderate growth than previously estimated. This revision reflects adjustments based on economic data and current trends in the energy market.

The report indicates that global oil consumption is expected to reach an average of 104.1 million barrels per day in 2024, a slight increase compared to the 102.2 million barrels per day recorded in 2023. For 2025, the forecast stands at 105.7 million barrels per day. These figures show a downward revision compared to OPEC’s previous forecasts, which projected 104.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and 105.9 million in 2025.

Factors Influencing the Forecast Revision

OPEC explained that the adjustment to its forecasts is mainly due to more conservative actual economic data and slightly lower projections for certain regions of the world. Despite this revision, the organization estimates that oil demand will continue to grow significantly. In 2024, demand is expected to increase by 1.9 million barrels per day, which remains above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day observed before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Differentiation Between OECD Member and Non-Member Countries

OPEC’s analysis also distinguishes demand between member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and non-member countries. Oil demand in non-OECD countries is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 compared to 2023, while demand in OECD member countries will only rise by 0.1 million barrels per day, mainly from the Americas.

Perspectives for 2025 and Beyond

For the year 2025, OPEC forecasts global oil demand growth of 1.6 million barrels per day, a downward revision compared to previous projections. The organization emphasizes that demand from non-OECD countries, particularly China, other Asian countries, the Middle East, and India, will be the main driver of this growth.

Environmental Impact and Long-Term Perspectives

In 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic, global oil consumption averaged around 100 million barrels per day. Oil, alongside coal and natural gas, is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for the rise in global temperatures. Last month, OPEC stated that oil demand is expected to continue growing at least until 2050, marking a contrast with the projections of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The OECD Energy Agency, on the other hand, anticipates a peak in demand for all fossil fuels—oil, gas, and coal—in the coming years of the current decade. This projection is supported by the rise of cleaner energies and electric mobility, which are expected to gradually replace traditional energy sources.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Recently published in

SBM Offshore sells its stake in FPSO Aseng to GEPetrol

SBM Offshore has signed a divestment agreement with GEPetrol to fully withdraw from the FPSO Aseng project in Equatorial Guinea, with an operational transition phase of up to one year.
Meren Energy has launched a partial divestment process for its EG-18 and EG-31 assets to attract new partners and reduce its exposure in Equatorial Guinea.
Meren Energy has launched a partial divestment process for its EG-18 and EG-31 assets to attract new partners and reduce its exposure in Equatorial Guinea.
The oil services joint venture extends its contract with Brunei Shell Petroleum for maintenance and upgrade operations on offshore installations in the South China Sea.
The oil services joint venture extends its contract with Brunei Shell Petroleum for maintenance and upgrade operations on offshore installations in the South China Sea.
Renaissance Africa Energy confirmed to the Nigerian government the operational takeover of Shell Petroleum Development Company’s onshore assets, stating it had surpassed the 200,000 barrels per day production mark.
Renaissance Africa Energy confirmed to the Nigerian government the operational takeover of Shell Petroleum Development Company’s onshore assets, stating it had surpassed the 200,000 barrels per day production mark.

Woodside initiates 65 millions USD arbitration procedure against Senegal

Australian company Woodside Energy has filed a complaint with ICSID against Senegal, challenging a CFA40bn tax reassessment related to the offshore Sangomar oil project.
Nigeria introduces a tax credit capped at 20% for oil operators meeting cost reduction targets, with a focus on gas and offshore projects.
Nigeria introduces a tax credit capped at 20% for oil operators meeting cost reduction targets, with a focus on gas and offshore projects.
Following the withdrawal of two British companies, Morocco launches a MAD2.5mn ($270,000) expert mission to boost the appeal of its offshore oil and gas sector.
Following the withdrawal of two British companies, Morocco launches a MAD2.5mn ($270,000) expert mission to boost the appeal of its offshore oil and gas sector.
International Petroleum Corporation repurchased 89,200 common shares between 26 and 30 May under its buyback programme compliant with Canadian and European regulations.
International Petroleum Corporation repurchased 89,200 common shares between 26 and 30 May under its buyback programme compliant with Canadian and European regulations.

US oil rig count falls to lowest level since 2021

US energy companies reduced the number of active rigs for the fifth consecutive week, reaching their lowest level since November 2021, according to data published by Baker Hughes.
The Swedish government will implement new disclosure rules for foreign vessels, specifically targeting tankers linked to Russia’s hard-to-trace oil fleet.
The Swedish government will implement new disclosure rules for foreign vessels, specifically targeting tankers linked to Russia’s hard-to-trace oil fleet.
Brazilian group Petrobras formalises its return to Angola with two memorandums of understanding signed with Sonangol and the national oil regulator, targeting offshore exploration without immediate financial commitment.
Brazilian group Petrobras formalises its return to Angola with two memorandums of understanding signed with Sonangol and the national oil regulator, targeting offshore exploration without immediate financial commitment.
The Abuja Court of Appeal rejected Malabu Oil & Gas’s lawsuit against Agip, Eni’s subsidiary, by upholding the statute of limitations on the OPL 245 oil block case.
The Abuja Court of Appeal rejected Malabu Oil & Gas’s lawsuit against Agip, Eni’s subsidiary, by upholding the statute of limitations on the OPL 245 oil block case.

Galp targets 40% increase in oil production in Brazil

Portugal’s Galp expects a production surge in Brazil driven by the offshore Bacalhau field, in partnership with Sinopec, Equinor and ExxonMobil.
North Atlantic has entered exclusive negotiations to acquire the Gravenchon refinery, France’s second-largest, from ExxonMobil in a deal reshaping the industrial landscape of the Seine Valley.
North Atlantic has entered exclusive negotiations to acquire the Gravenchon refinery, France’s second-largest, from ExxonMobil in a deal reshaping the industrial landscape of the Seine Valley.
TotalEnergies sells its 12.5% stake in the offshore Bonga oil field to Shell for $510mn, raising the British group's share to 67.5% in the OML 118 block off the Nigerian coast.
TotalEnergies sells its 12.5% stake in the offshore Bonga oil field to Shell for $510mn, raising the British group's share to 67.5% in the OML 118 block off the Nigerian coast.
The Trump administration authorizes Chevron to maintain limited stakes in Venezuela while prohibiting oil production and export, marking a decisive shift for the oil sector amid geopolitical tensions with Maduro’s government.
The Trump administration authorizes Chevron to maintain limited stakes in Venezuela while prohibiting oil production and export, marking a decisive shift for the oil sector amid geopolitical tensions with Maduro’s government.

Indonesia Energy aims to strengthen its upstream oil presence in Indonesia

Indonesia Energy announces a ramp-up in its oil assets with a 60% increase in proven reserves and confirms a strategic shift toward gradual energy diversification.
SK Innovation, through its subsidiary SK Earthon, is accelerating investments in offshore oil exploration projects in Southeast Asia, enhancing South Korea's energy security through a regional strategy focused on operational efficiency.
SK Innovation, through its subsidiary SK Earthon, is accelerating investments in offshore oil exploration projects in Southeast Asia, enhancing South Korea's energy security through a regional strategy focused on operational efficiency.
Production at the Mero-4 field began on May 24 using a 180,000 barrels/day FPSO, the result of international cooperation among six partners operating offshore Brazil.
Production at the Mero-4 field began on May 24 using a 180,000 barrels/day FPSO, the result of international cooperation among six partners operating offshore Brazil.
As Western nations debate an adjustment to the price ceiling on Russian oil, Moscow firmly rejects these measures as market-distorting, citing a lack of significant impact on its current exports.
As Western nations debate an adjustment to the price ceiling on Russian oil, Moscow firmly rejects these measures as market-distorting, citing a lack of significant impact on its current exports.

Valeura to drill ten new wells after successful campaign offshore Thailand

Valeura Energy has completed eight wells on Block B5/27 in the Gulf of Thailand, securing stable output and preparing a new investment phase at the Nong Yao field.
Shell recognised Mecpec Trading for its 2023 fuel sales growth and contribution to Singapore's distribution network, with a 23% increase in total volume delivered.
Shell recognised Mecpec Trading for its 2023 fuel sales growth and contribution to Singapore's distribution network, with a 23% increase in total volume delivered.
Petroecuador suspended activities at its Esmeraldas refinery following a fire, with no injuries reported, while an investigation is under way to assess the damage.
Petroecuador suspended activities at its Esmeraldas refinery following a fire, with no injuries reported, while an investigation is under way to assess the damage.
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) plans to eliminate over 3,000 non-union positions as part of a comprehensive restructuring initiative aimed at significantly reducing operational costs.
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) plans to eliminate over 3,000 non-union positions as part of a comprehensive restructuring initiative aimed at significantly reducing operational costs.

Advertising