The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has released new data indicating that global oil supply is expected to remain closely aligned with demand in 2026, countering the surplus scenario projected by other institutions such as the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to the monthly report, crude output by OPEC+—which includes Russia and several non-OPEC partners—reached 43.06 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, a modest increase of 43,000 bpd from the previous month.
Unchanged forecasts despite signs of slowdown
The report states that demand for OPEC+ crude is projected to average 43 million bpd in 2026, unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. This figure reflects an almost exact balance with current production volumes, suggesting market stability over the medium term. For the first quarter of 2026, demand is forecast at 42.6 million bpd, resulting in a gap of only 60,000 bpd if November production levels are maintained.
Contrast with IEA projections
This stability outlook sharply contrasts with the IEA’s projections, which foresee a global oversupply of 3.84 million bpd next year, equivalent to nearly 4% of global demand. In response to such discrepancies, the OPEC+ group plans to pause output increases during the first three months of 2026 to avoid potential imbalances. This decision comes as the market closely monitors signals of global demand amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
No revision of demand growth forecasts
OPEC has kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for 2025 and 2026, reiterating that the global economy remains broadly stable. The report does not indicate significant adjustments in the alliance’s production or strategy, suggesting a cautious stance based on a measured reading of market dynamics.
The contrasting outlooks from the sector’s two main institutions highlight the uncertainties surrounding global energy consumption trends, as industry players recalibrate their investment plans for 2026.
