Oil volatility: the geopolitical spectrum and its implications

In the midst of geopolitical tension, oil markets remain cautious, affected by conflicts in the Middle East and Russian-Ukrainian relations.
cours mondial pétrole volatilité

Partagez:

At the heart of the global chessboard, fluctuations in oil prices are inexorably linked to current geopolitical dynamics. Recent events in the Middle East and ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine are perfect examples of how regional crises can have a significant impact on global energy markets.

Geopolitical impacts on the oil market

Oil, although slightly down, remains at high levels, supported by a series of geopolitical crises shaking the main producing basins. Analysts at Rystad Energy, like Claudio Galimberti, point out that the risk premiums associated with tensions in Russia and the Middle East are significant. Despite attempts at a ceasefire, conflict zones such as Gaza and the Lebanese border continue to weigh on regional and global stability, exacerbating uncertainties on the oil market. Since December 2023, tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to soar.

Conflict dynamics and their influence

Israel’s recent bombardment of Gaza, in response to Hamas’ actions, and growing tensions with Hezbollah, illustrate the security risks prevailing in the region. At the same time, Houthi attacks on merchant shipping demonstrate the escalation of the conflict beyond the immediate borders of the war zones, indirectly affecting vital trade and oil routes.

The European outlook and its economic repercussions

In Europe, the situation in Ukraine remains a major flashpoint. Ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine, and vice versa, not only exacerbate regional tensions but also affect energy market confidence. The planned integration of Ukraine and Moldova into the European Union represents an attempt to stabilize the region through economic and political means, projecting a future in which these countries can contribute more positively to the European energy market.
Despite occasional disruptions, oil markets have shown remarkable resilience, avoiding excessive price rises despite the many geopolitical risks. This phenomenon highlights the complexity of the economic and political interdependencies that characterize the contemporary era, where geopolitics continues to shape global energy markets.

  • Populaires ​
Burundi Inaugurates Major $320 Million Hydroelectric Power Plant
France: Générale du Solaire inaugurates 20 MWc floating solar plant in Alsace
Chevron and Energy Transfer Expand Their LNG Agreement at Lake Charles
Global small-scale LNG market to reach $31.78bn by 2030
BrightNight launches 300 MW solar plant in Arizona with Cordelio Power
Prax Group files for insolvency in the UK after losses at Lindsey refinery
British company Prax Group has filed for insolvency, putting hundreds of jobs at its Lindsey oil site at risk, according to Sky News.
Orlen ends Russian oil purchases for Czech refinery after contract expiry
Orlen announces the definitive halt of its Russian oil purchases for the Czech Republic, marking the end of deliveries by Rosneft following the contract expiry, amid evolving logistics and diversification of regional supply sources.
Adura becomes the leading independent oil and gas producer in the North Sea
Equinor and Shell launch Adura, a new joint venture consolidating their main offshore assets in the United Kingdom, aiming to secure energy supply with an expected production of over 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Equinor discovers up to 15 mn barrels of oil at Johan Castberg in the Barents Sea
Equinor announces a new oil discovery estimated at between 9 and 15 mn barrels at the Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, strengthening the reserve potential in Norway's northern region.
Sierra Leone launches extensive offshore oil exploration with 60 potential blocks
Sierra Leone relaunches an ambitious offshore exploration campaign, using a 3D seismic survey to evaluate up to 60 potential oil blocks before opening a new licensing round as early as next October.
Zambia restructures petroleum logistics to stabilise energy supply
Faced with recurrent shortages, Zambia is reorganising its fuel supply chain, notably issuing licences for operating new tanker trucks and service stations to enhance national energy security and reduce external dependence.
Grangemouth Closure: UK Oil Stocks at Highest Level in Three Years
The closure of the Grangemouth refinery has triggered a record increase in UK oil inventories, highlighting growing dependence on imports and an expanding deficit in domestic refining capacity.
Mexco Energy reports 27% increase in annual profit
Mexco Energy Corporation reports an annual net profit of $1.71mn, up 27%, driven by increased hydrocarbon production despite persistently weak natural gas prices in the Permian Basin.
S&P downgrades Ecopetrol to BB, Moody’s maintains Ba1 rating
S&P Global Ratings lowers Ecopetrol's global rating to BB following Colombia's sovereign downgrade, while Moody’s Investors Service confirms the group's Ba1 rating with a stable outlook.
Shell officially rules out any takeover offer for rival BP
Shell group publicly clarifies it is neither considering discussions nor approaches for a potential takeover of its British rival BP, putting an end to recent media speculation about a possible merger between the two oil giants.
Chinese independent refiners poised to increase fuel oil imports
The anticipated increase in the tax deduction rate may encourage independent refineries in Shandong to restart fuel oil imports, compensating for limited crude oil import quotas.
Petro-Victory launches fully-funded drilling campaign in Brazil
Petro-Victory Energy Corp. starts drilling of the AND-5 well in the Potiguar Basin, Brazil, as the first phase of an operation financed through its strategic partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Energia.
Port of Corpus Christi expands capacity for large oil tankers
The Texan Port of Corpus Christi has completed major widening and deepening work designed to accommodate more supertankers, thus strengthening its strategic position in the US market for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust puts Prudhoe Bay royalty up for sale
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust is offering its interest in Prudhoe Bay, North America’s largest oil field, as part of its planned dissolution, assisted by RedOaks Energy Advisors for this strategic asset transaction.
CNOOC partners with KazMunayGas to explore the Zhylyoi subsoil area
CNOOC Limited’s Hong Kong subsidiary and KazMunayGas have concluded a nine-year exploration and production contract covering nine hundred and fifty-eight square kilometres in Kazakhstan, sharing investment and operations equally.
Trump authorizes China to buy Iranian oil, shaking global oil markets
Donald Trump announced that the United States will no longer oppose Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, immediately triggering a drop in global crude oil prices and profoundly reshaping international energy trade partnerships.
Canadian oil sands production poised to reach record high
Research firm S&P Global Commodity Insights lifts its outlook for the fourth straight year, betting on three point five mn barrels per day from 2025 despite lower prices.
Enbridge Considers Adding Capacity to Export More Oil to Gulf Coast
Enbridge plans to expand its infrastructure to increase oil transportation from the American Midwest to the Gulf Coast, anticipating rising exports and addressing current market logistical constraints.
US oil stocks fall by 3.1 mn barrels, surprising markets
US commercial crude inventories significantly decline by 3.1 million barrels, widely surpassing initial forecasts and immediately pushing international oil prices higher.
UK reserves underestimated, GBP 165 billion opportunity according to Offshore Energies UK
The UK could have hydrocarbon reserves twice as large as current official estimates, according to Offshore Energies UK, highlighting the impact of fiscal policies on forecasts and the economic future of the North Sea.

LEGAL

FOSSILS

POLICY

RENEWABLE

PLUS

© XMARKET PUBLISHING

Welcome

Your subscription

Included in this subscription:

COMMUNICATE ON ENERGYNEWS