Oil volatility: the geopolitical spectrum and its implications

In the midst of geopolitical tension, oil markets remain cautious, affected by conflicts in the Middle East and Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Share:

cours mondial pétrole volatilité

At the heart of the global chessboard, fluctuations in oil prices are inexorably linked to current geopolitical dynamics. Recent events in the Middle East and ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine are perfect examples of how regional crises can have a significant impact on global energy markets.

Geopolitical impacts on the oil market

Oil, although slightly down, remains at high levels, supported by a series of geopolitical crises shaking the main producing basins. Analysts at Rystad Energy, like Claudio Galimberti, point out that the risk premiums associated with tensions in Russia and the Middle East are significant. Despite attempts at a ceasefire, conflict zones such as Gaza and the Lebanese border continue to weigh on regional and global stability, exacerbating uncertainties on the oil market. Since December 2023, tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to soar.

Conflict dynamics and their influence

Israel’s recent bombardment of Gaza, in response to Hamas’ actions, and growing tensions with Hezbollah, illustrate the security risks prevailing in the region. At the same time, Houthi attacks on merchant shipping demonstrate the escalation of the conflict beyond the immediate borders of the war zones, indirectly affecting vital trade and oil routes.

The European outlook and its economic repercussions

In Europe, the situation in Ukraine remains a major flashpoint. Ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine, and vice versa, not only exacerbate regional tensions but also affect energy market confidence. The planned integration of Ukraine and Moldova into the European Union represents an attempt to stabilize the region through economic and political means, projecting a future in which these countries can contribute more positively to the European energy market.
Despite occasional disruptions, oil markets have shown remarkable resilience, avoiding excessive price rises despite the many geopolitical risks. This phenomenon highlights the complexity of the economic and political interdependencies that characterize the contemporary era, where geopolitics continues to shape global energy markets.

The expansion of the global oil and gas fishing market is accelerating on the back of offshore projects, with annual growth estimated at 5.7% according to The Insight Partners.
The Competition Bureau has required Schlumberger to divest major assets to finalise the acquisition of ChampionX, thereby reducing the risks of market concentration in Canada’s oilfield services sector. —
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. confirms the acquisition of 1,608,182 common shares for a total amount of USD3.46mn, as part of its public buyback offer in Canada, resulting in a reduction of its free float.
OPEC slightly adjusts its production forecasts for 2025-2026 while projecting stable global demand growth, leaving OPEC+ significant room to increase supply without destabilizing global oil markets.
Talks between European Union member states stall on the adoption of the eighteenth sanctions package targeting Russian oil, due to ongoing disagreements over the proposed price ceiling.
Three new oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan have been targeted by explosive drones, bringing the number of affected sites in this strategic region to five in one week, according to local authorities.
An explosion at 07:00 at an HKN Energy facility forced ShaMaran Petroleum to shut the Sarsang field while an inquiry determines damage and the impact on regional exports.
The Canadian producer issues USD 237 mn in senior notes at 6.875 % to repay bank debt, repurchase USD 73 mn of 2027 notes and push most of its maturity schedule to 2030.
BP revised upwards its production forecast for the second quarter of 2025, citing stronger-than-expected results from its US shale unit. However, lower oil prices and refinery maintenance shutdowns weighed on overall results.
Belgrade is engaged in complex negotiations with Washington to obtain a fifth extension of sanctions relief for the Serbian oil company NIS, which is majority-owned by Russian groups.
European Union ambassadors are close to reaching an agreement on a new sanctions package aimed at reducing the Russian oil price cap, with measures impacting several energy and financial sectors.
Backbone Infrastructure Nigeria Limited is investing $15bn to develop a 500,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Ondo State, a major project aimed at boosting Nigeria’s refining capacity.
The Central Energy Fund’s takeover of the Sapref refinery introduces major financial risks for South Africa, with the facility still offline and no clear restart strategy released so far.
PetroTal Corp. records production growth in the second quarter of 2025, improves its cash position and continues replacing key equipment at its main oil sites in Peru.
An explosion caused by a homemade explosive device in northeastern Colombia has forced Cenit, a subsidiary of Ecopetrol, to temporarily suspend operations on the strategic Caño Limón-Coveñas pipeline, crucial to the country's oil supply.
U.S. legislation eases access to federal lands for oil production, but fluctuations in crude prices may limit concrete impacts on investment and medium-term production, according to industry experts.
Permex Petroleum Corporation has completed a US$2mn fundraising by issuing convertible debentures, aimed at strengthening its cash position, without using intermediaries, and targeting a single institutional investor.
Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) recorded $17.52bn in export sales in 2024, benefiting from increased volumes due to U.S. licences granted to foreign partners, according to an internal document seen by Reuters.
The detection of zinc in Mars crude extracted off the coast of Louisiana forced the US government to draw on its strategic reserves to support Gulf Coast refineries.
Commissioning of a 1.2-million-ton hydrocracking unit at the TANECO site confirms the industrial expansion of the complex and its ability to diversify refined fuel production.