Oil prices: Geopolitics in the Middle East 2023

Oil prices currently reflect the view that a 1973-style oil embargo is an extremely unlikely response to the crisis in Gaza. However, the leaders of OPEC's largest producers have made irrational decisions in the past.
Prix du pétrole Moyen-Orient 2023

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Oil prices, symbolized by Platts Dated Brent at $88.615 on November 1, have returned to levels similar to those prior to the outbreak of conflict between Hamas and Israel on October 7. The main reason against an oil shock is political. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, natural enemies of Iran-backed Hamas, have no interest in using their oil exports to end the conflict. The USA was hoping for a similar agreement between Riyadh and the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The story of the 1973 oil embargo

Unlike 50 years ago, when the oil shock was the result of pan-Arab nationalism, the Cold War and the Saudi-backed Islamic Unity movement, today’s motivations are different. Unlike 50 years ago, there is little pressure today to arm oil exports. The Gulf States, in particular Kuwait, called for a ceasefire. Algeria and Oman also criticized Israel. However, Saudi Arabia currently seems ambivalent about its role in 1973.

 

Economic development since 1973

The economic context has changed considerably since then. In 1973, the Middle East accounted for over a third of the world oil market, compared with less than 30% today. US shale oil production has risen sharply, becoming the world’s leading source of production. In addition, it is important to note that the major economies also maintain their own strategic oil reserves.

 

Oil prices are currently influenced by a combination of economic and geopolitical factors. Although an oil embargo is unlikely, any major disruption to supplies from the Middle East would have an impact on world oil prices. However, current conditions differ considerably from those in 1973, making a similar scenario unlikely.

Orlen announces the definitive halt of its Russian oil purchases for the Czech Republic, marking the end of deliveries by Rosneft following the contract expiry, amid evolving logistics and diversification of regional supply sources.
Equinor and Shell launch Adura, a new joint venture consolidating their main offshore assets in the United Kingdom, aiming to secure energy supply with an expected production of over 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Equinor announces a new oil discovery estimated at between 9 and 15 mn barrels at the Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, strengthening the reserve potential in Norway's northern region.
Sierra Leone relaunches an ambitious offshore exploration campaign, using a 3D seismic survey to evaluate up to 60 potential oil blocks before opening a new licensing round as early as next October.
Faced with recurrent shortages, Zambia is reorganising its fuel supply chain, notably issuing licences for operating new tanker trucks and service stations to enhance national energy security and reduce external dependence.
The closure of the Grangemouth refinery has triggered a record increase in UK oil inventories, highlighting growing dependence on imports and an expanding deficit in domestic refining capacity.
Mexco Energy Corporation reports an annual net profit of $1.71mn, up 27%, driven by increased hydrocarbon production despite persistently weak natural gas prices in the Permian Basin.
S&P Global Ratings lowers Ecopetrol's global rating to BB following Colombia's sovereign downgrade, while Moody’s Investors Service confirms the group's Ba1 rating with a stable outlook.
Shell group publicly clarifies it is neither considering discussions nor approaches for a potential takeover of its British rival BP, putting an end to recent media speculation about a possible merger between the two oil giants.
The anticipated increase in the tax deduction rate may encourage independent refineries in Shandong to restart fuel oil imports, compensating for limited crude oil import quotas.
Petro-Victory Energy Corp. starts drilling of the AND-5 well in the Potiguar Basin, Brazil, as the first phase of an operation financed through its strategic partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Energia.
The Texan Port of Corpus Christi has completed major widening and deepening work designed to accommodate more supertankers, thus strengthening its strategic position in the US market for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust is offering its interest in Prudhoe Bay, North America’s largest oil field, as part of its planned dissolution, assisted by RedOaks Energy Advisors for this strategic asset transaction.
Donald Trump announced that the United States will no longer oppose Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, immediately triggering a drop in global crude oil prices and profoundly reshaping international energy trade partnerships.
Research firm S&P Global Commodity Insights lifts its outlook for the fourth straight year, betting on three point five mn barrels per day from 2025 despite lower prices.
Enbridge plans to expand its infrastructure to increase oil transportation from the American Midwest to the Gulf Coast, anticipating rising exports and addressing current market logistical constraints.
US commercial crude inventories significantly decline by 3.1 million barrels, widely surpassing initial forecasts and immediately pushing international oil prices higher.
The UK could have hydrocarbon reserves twice as large as current official estimates, according to Offshore Energies UK, highlighting the impact of fiscal policies on forecasts and the economic future of the North Sea.
Following US strikes in Iran, international energy companies partially evacuate their teams from Iraq as a precaution, while Lukoil maintains its entire personnel on southern oilfields.
Chinese independent refineries remain cautious amid rising Iranian crude prices driven by escalating Iran-Israel tensions, potentially threatening access to the strategic Strait of Hormuz.