Oil: OPEC maintains forecasts, Russia below production quota

OPEC confirms global oil demand estimates for 2025-2026 despite slightly adjusted supply, while several members, including Russia, struggle to meet their production targets under the OPEC+ agreement.

Share:

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has left unchanged its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, anticipating an annual increase of about 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d). Global demand is therefore projected at 105.13 mb/d in 2025 and 106.42 mb/d for the following year, according to data published in its latest monthly report. These figures, previously discussed in earlier assessments, indicate relative stability despite recurring adjustments in global oil supply. Conversely, the organization slightly lowered its production growth forecast for non-OPEC+ countries to 0.7 mb/d in 2026, compared to the previous 0.8 mb/d.

OPEC+ production below quotas in May

The combined production of OPEC+ member countries, excluding Libya, Iran, and Venezuela, reached 35.729 mb/d in May 2025, placing it 52,000 barrels per day (b/d) below the established quotas after accounting for voluntary cuts and compensations planned. Despite an overall increase of 200,000 b/d compared to the previous month, significant disparities persist. Kazakhstan continued to substantially exceed its obligations, producing 433,000 b/d above its assigned quota by the alliance. Conversely, certain members reduced output or failed to meet assigned targets, influencing the group’s overall result.

Mixed performances from quota-exempt countries

Among countries exempt from OPEC+ quotas, Libya increased its production by 36,000 b/d, reaching 1.302 mb/d in May. Iran, conversely, saw production decline by 25,000 b/d to 3.303 mb/d. Venezuela experienced an even more pronounced decline, with output falling by 32,000 b/d to 896,000 b/d during the same period. These fluctuations among quota-exempt countries are closely monitored by oil markets, as these volumes significantly impact global supply and demand balances.

Russia struggles to meet its targets

Russian oil production rose slightly by 3,000 b/d in May, reaching 8.984 mb/d, yet remained 14,000 b/d below quotas set by OPEC+. This situation partly results from compensation commitments related to previous periods of overproduction. For the second consecutive month, Russia failed to fully meet its OPEC+ obligations, registering a production shortfall of 17,000 b/d in April against its quotas. This reality underscores the technical and operational difficulties some OPEC+ members continue to face in precisely aligning their production with agreed levels.

The continuation of these gaps between assigned quotas and actual production levels prompts the market to closely monitor upcoming adjustments and strategic decisions by OPEC+. Industry participants will carefully observe whether affected countries can sustainably meet these objectives, a critical factor for global oil market stability and forecasting.

OMS Energy Technologies Inc. reports solid financial results for 2025, driven by marked revenue growth, improved gross margin and a reinforced cash position in a shifting market.
Five employees injured in an explosion at the Pascagoula refinery are suing Chevron for negligence, seeking significant compensation and alleging major breaches of safety regulations.
South Korea and Japan are reinforcing coordination on strategic stocks and oil logistics as growing dependence on Gulf imports and geopolitical tensions affect the Asian market.
Sonatrach continues to assess underexploited oil and gas areas with the support of Sinopec, following a gradual strategy to strengthen its position on the regional energy market.
Venezuelan oil group PDVSA is mobilising to restart export operations under conditions similar to previous US licences, as Washington prepares to again authorise its main partners to operate.
Two separate strikes in the Vaca Muerta region threaten to disrupt oil and gas production after historic records, with unions protesting layoffs and unpaid wages in a rapidly expanding sector.
US refiner Phillips 66 posted quarterly earnings above expectations, driven by high utilisation rates and lower maintenance costs across its facilities.
The advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice increases legal exposure for states and companies involved in the licensing or expansion of oil and gas projects, according to several international law experts.
US oil company Chevron has received new approval from American authorities to relaunch its operations in Venezuela, halted since May following the revocation of its licence under the Trump administration.
Kazakhstan adopts an ambitious roadmap to develop its refining and petrochemical industry, targeting 30% exports and $5bn in investments by 2040.
The Dangote refinery complex in Nigeria is planning a scheduled forty-day shutdown to replace the catalyst and repair the reactor of its gasoline production unit, starting in early December.
Indonesia Energy plans to drill two new wells on the Kruh block in Indonesia before the end of 2025, following a 60% increase in proven reserves thanks to recent seismic campaigns.
CanAsia Energy Corp. confirms it has submitted a bid for oil and gas exploration and production in Thailand, reinforcing its international strategy within a consortium and targeting a block in the 25th onshore round.
The decrease in US commercial crude oil stocks exceeds expectations, driven by a sharp increase in exports and higher refinery activity, while domestic production shows a slight decline.
Pacific Petroleum and VCP Operating finalise the $9.65mn acquisition of oil assets in Wyoming, backed by a consortium of Japanese institutional investors and a technology innovation programme focused on real-world asset tokenisation.
Repsol's net profit fell to €603mn in the first half, impacted by oil market volatility and a massive power outage that disrupted its activities in Spain and Portugal.
A USD 1.1 billion refinery project in Ndola, signed with Fujian Xiang Xin Corporation, aims to meet Zambia's domestic demand and potentially support regional exports.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OIES) confirmed its Brent price forecast at 69 USD/b in 2025 and 67 USD/b in 2026, while adjusting its 2025 surplus forecast to 280,000 barrels per day.
PermRock Royalty Trust has declared a monthly distribution of 395,288.31 USD, or 0.032491 USD per trust unit, payable on August 14, 2025, based on production revenues from May 2025.
Portuguese group Galp Energia announced an adjusted net profit of €373 million for Q2 2025, a 25% increase from the previous year, driven by higher hydrocarbon production in Brazil.