Norwegian Gas Exports to Europe Rebound in October, but the Market Remains Vulnerable

After a drop due to maintenance in September, Norwegian gas exports to Northwest Europe increased by 49% in October, a sign of sustained demand despite an uncertain market.

Share:

Norway’s natural gas exports to Northwest Europe rebounded significantly in October following a marked decrease in September due to a heavy maintenance schedule. According to data analyzed by S&P Global Commodity Insights, Norwegian pipeline gas deliveries reached 9.56 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in October, compared to just 6.4 Bcm in the previous month, an increase of nearly 49%. This recovery also surpasses exports achieved during the same period last year by 5% and exceeds the five-year average for October, which stands at 9.38 Bcm.

Sustained Production to Compensate for Reduced Russian Volumes

Since the sharp reduction of Russian gas supplies in 2022, Norway has become the primary gas supplier to the European market. Norwegian producers have ramped up production and optimized exports to compensate for the drop in Russian volumes and take advantage of historically high prices, particularly during the summer of 2022, when prices peaked.

In 2023, cumulative pipeline gas exports for the January to October period totaled 93.2 Bcm, up 10% from the previous year. This volume is close to the level recorded during the same period in 2022, at 93.7 Bcm, a year considered a production peak for Norway according to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

European Gas Prices and Winter Outlook

Despite high storage levels in Europe ahead of winter, gas prices remain sensitive. On November 5, the gas price on the TTF market for next month’s deliveries stood at €40.37/MWh, reflecting persistent volatility. Equinor’s Chief Financial Officer, Torgrim Reitan, noted that current prices reflect the ongoing “vulnerability” of the markets, exacerbated by a series of external factors, including Asian LNG demand and uncertainty surrounding the expiration of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal scheduled for the end of the year.

Reitan also highlighted the importance of weather conditions this winter. A normal winter season could reduce European gas storage levels to around 40% by next April, compared to 60% in April of this year, a difference that could impact prices throughout the winter period.

The Azule Energy consortium has identified a significant gas and condensate field during Angola’s first exploration drilling dedicated to gas, marking a milestone for the country's energy sector.
Technip Energies has secured a contract to lead preparatory works for a floating liquefied natural gas unit in Africa, confirming its presence in the international gas infrastructure market.
The Slovak government is seeking guarantees from the European Union to secure its supplies as talks continue over ending Russian gas and adopting a new round of sanctions.
ArcLight Capital Partners announces the acquisition of Middletown Energy Center, a combined-cycle natural gas power plant, aimed at meeting the substantial rise in energy demand from data centers and digital infrastructure in Ohio.
The commissioning of LNG Canada, the first major Canadian liquefied natural gas export facility led by Shell, has not yet triggered the anticipated rise in natural gas prices in western Canada, still facing persistent oversupply.
Horizon Petroleum Ltd. is advancing towards the production launch of the Lachowice 7 gas well in Poland, having secured necessary permits and completed preliminary works to commence operations as early as next August.
European Union member states have requested to keep their national strategies for phasing out Russian gas by 2027 confidential, citing security concerns and market disruption risks, according to a document revealed by Reuters.
TotalEnergies becomes a member of PJM Interconnection, expanding its trading capabilities in North America's largest wholesale electricity market. The decision strengthens the company's presence in the United States.
Turkey has connected its gas grid to Syria’s and plans to begin supplying gas for power generation in the coming weeks, according to Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
Despite record electricity demand, China sees no significant increase in LNG purchases due to high prices and available alternative supplies.
Naftogaz announces the launch of a natural gas well with a daily output of 383,000 cubic meters, amid a sharp decline in Ukrainian production following several military strikes on its strategic facilities.
Sonatrach and ENI have signed a $1.35 billion production-sharing agreement aiming to extract 415 million barrels of hydrocarbons in Algeria's Berkine basin, strengthening energy ties between Algiers and Rome.
VMOS signs a USD 2 billion loan to finance the construction of the Vaca Muerta South pipeline, aiming to boost Argentina's energy production while reducing costly natural gas imports.
According to a Wood Mackenzie report, Argentina could achieve daily gas production of 180 million cubic metres per day by 2040, aiming to become a key regional supplier and a significant exporter of liquefied natural gas.
Côte d'Ivoire and the Italian group Eni assess progress on the Baleine energy project, whose third phase plans a daily production of 150,000 barrels of oil and 200 million cubic feet of gas for the Ivorian domestic market.
The extreme heatwave in China has led to a dramatic rise in electricity consumption, while Asia records a significant drop in liquefied natural gas imports amid a tight global energy context.
E.ON, together with MM Neuss, commissions Europe’s first fully automated cogeneration plant, capable of achieving a 91 % fuel-use rate and cutting CO₂ emissions by 22 000 t a year.
Facing the lowest temperatures recorded in 30 years, the Argentine government announces reductions in natural gas supply to industries to meet the exceptional rise in residential energy demand across the country.
Solar power generation increased sharply in the United States in June, significantly reducing natural gas consumption in the power sector, despite relatively stable overall electricity demand.
Golden Pass LNG, jointly owned by Exxon Mobil and QatarEnergy, has asked US authorities for permission to re-export liquefied natural gas starting October 1, anticipating the imminent launch of its operations in Texas.