North America’s energy emissions set to fall by 20% by 2030, says Wood Mackenzie

According to a report by Wood Mackenzie, net energy-related emissions in the North American electricity sector are expected to drop by 20% by 2030, with significant impacts from renewable energy and transportation electrification.

Partagez:

A recent report by Wood Mackenzie reveals that net energy-related emissions in North America’s electricity sector are projected to decrease by 20% by 2030 compared to 2024 levels. The report, titled Energy Transition Outlook 2024-25: Americas, highlights the key drivers behind this reduction, including a 24% drop in emissions within the energy sector and the acceleration of transportation electrification. However, several factors, such as tariff increases, infrastructure delays, and political uncertainty regarding emerging technologies, may slow this transition.

In Wood Mackenzie’s delayed transition scenario, emissions in 2030 would be 11% higher than in the base case, primarily due to regulatory hurdles and supply chain challenges. David Brown, Director of Energy Transition Research at Wood Mackenzie, highlighted the political challenges that could hinder decarbonisation efforts. “President Trump has indicated that he would challenge political support for low-carbon energy,” said Brown. “However, obstacles include Republican backing for the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act), the competitive economics of renewable energy, and private sector goals for carbon neutrality.”

The report also notes that renewable energy and battery energy storage are expected to account for 80% of North America’s new electricity capacity by 2050. The electrification of transportation and low-carbon hydrogen are also anticipated to accelerate the gradual phase-out of oil and natural gas. Oil demand is expected to drop by 8 Mb/d between 2024 and 2050 in the base case, but in the delayed scenario, more expensive new sources of production will need to come online.

Role of hydrogen and nuclear in the transition

Blue hydrogen and natural gas-based energy production are highlighted as key components to ensuring the resilience of gas demand. In the base case scenario, LNG exports are projected to exceed 410 bcm by 2050, supported by major project expansions such as those by Cheniere, Venture Global, and LNG Canada. Meanwhile, coal demand is expected to decline significantly across all scenarios, with thermal coal demand in the electricity sector decreasing by 97% between 2024 and 2050.

Policies also play a central role in achieving decarbonisation goals, notably the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States and Canada’s net-zero target. However, political uncertainty surrounding key elements such as carbon pricing, low-carbon hydrogen, and infrastructure permits is slowing investment in the energy transition, especially ahead of 2030. Gerardo Bocard, Associate Researcher for Energy and Renewables at Wood Mackenzie, explained that the Mexican government prioritised access to low-cost energy and maximising oil revenues, which may limit investment in renewable energy.

Innovation and emerging technologies: nuclear takes the lead

Emerging technologies are set to play a pivotal role in North America’s decarbonisation strategy. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), a field in which the United States and Canada are leaders in research and business strategies, are expected to reach a capacity of 19 GW by 2050. Companies such as NuScale, TerraPower, and X-Energy, based in the United States, along with planned projects in Canada, are expected to transform the North American energy landscape.

The report also emphasises the delay in developing low-carbon infrastructure as one of the main obstacles to the transition. In the United States, the number of renewable energy projects awaiting grid connection already exceeds 1.5 GW. David Brown added, “With Republican majorities in Congress, the United States under a new Trump administration could have the best chance in decades to pass infrastructure reforms, including permit reforms and policies encouraging cost-sharing of hybrid wind, solar, and energy storage projects.”

According to the 2025 report on global energy access, despite notable progress in renewable energy, insufficient targeted financing continues to hinder electricity and clean cooking access, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
While advanced economies maintain global energy leadership, China and the United States have significantly progressed in the security and sustainability of their energy systems, according to the World Economic Forum's annual report.
On the sidelines of the US–Africa summit in Luanda, Algiers and Luanda consolidate their energy collaboration to better exploit their oil, gas, and mining potential, targeting a common strategy in regional and international markets.
The UK's Climate Change Committee is urging the government to quickly reduce electricity costs to facilitate the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles, judged too slow to achieve the set climate targets.
The European Commission will extend until the end of 2030 an expanded state-aid framework, allowing capitals to fund low-carbon technologies and nuclear power to preserve competitiveness against China and the United States.
Japan's grid operator forecasts an energy shortfall of up to 89 GW by 2050 due to rising demand from semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence technologies.
Energy-intensive European industries will be eligible for temporary state aid to mitigate high electricity prices, according to a new regulatory framework proposed by the European Commission under the "Clean Industrial Deal."
Mauritius seeks international investors to swiftly build a floating power plant of around 100 MW, aiming to secure the national energy supply by January 2026 and address current production shortfalls.
Madrid announces immediate energy storage measures while Lisbon secures its electrical grid, responding to the historic outage that affected the entire Iberian Peninsula in late April.
Indonesia has unveiled its new national energy plan, projecting an increase of 69.5 GW in electricity capacity over ten years, largely funded by independent producers, to address rapidly rising domestic demand.
French Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher condemns the parliamentary moratorium on new renewable energy installations, warning of the potential loss of 150,000 industrial jobs and increased energy dependence on foreign countries.
The European battery regulation, fully effective from August 18, significantly alters industrial requirements related to electric cars and bicycles, imposing strict rules on recycling, supply chains, and transparency for companies.
The European Parliament calls on the Commission to strengthen energy infrastructure and accelerate the implementation of the Clean Industrial Deal to enhance the continent's energy flexibility and security amid increased market volatility.
The European Commission unveils an ambitious plan to modernize electricity grids and introduces the Clean Industrial Deal, mobilizing hundreds of billions of euros to strengthen the continent's industrial and energy autonomy.
In the United States, regulated electric grid operators hold a decisive advantage in connecting new data centres to the grid, now representing 134 GW of projects, according to a Wood Mackenzie report published on June 19.
The French National Assembly approves a specific target of 200 TWh renewable electricity production by 2030 within a legislative text extensively debated about the future national energy mix.
In 2024, US CO₂ emissions remain stable at 5.1bn tonnes, as the Trump administration prepares hydrocarbon-friendly energy policies, raising questions about the future evolution of the American market.
The early publication of France's energy decree triggers strong parliamentary reactions, as the government aims to rapidly secure investments in nuclear and other energy sectors.
Seven weeks after the major Iberian power outage, Spain identifies technical network failures, while the European Investment Bank approves major funding to strengthen the interconnection with France.
The European Union has announced a detailed schedule aiming to definitively halt Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, anticipating internal legal and commercial challenges to overcome.