popular articles

Mexico: Revised Renewable Capacity Targets from 2024 to 2038

Mexico is revising its renewable capacity targets, increasing wind and reducing solar, which could influence the I-REC market.
Mexique: Révisions des Objectifs de Capacité en renouvelable de 2024 à 2038.

Please share:

Mexico recently revised its renewable energy capacity targets for the short and long term, according to the Program for the Development of the National Electrical System (PRODESEN) 2024-2038 published by the Secretariat of Energy (SENER). These revisions show a decline in solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity and a significant increase in wind power capacity, leading to a potential shift in the International Renewable Energy Certificate (I-REC) market.

Revised targets and impact on renewable capacities

In its May 31 report, SENER forecasts a 38.2% increase in net electricity consumption, from 358,670 GWh in 2024 to 495,781 GWh in 2038. Peak power demand would increase by 54.91%, reaching 79,627 MWh/h in 2038. To meet this demand, an additional 93,924 MW of capacity will be needed, including PV-solar, PV distributed generation (PV-DG), combined cycles with green hydrogen, wind power and battery energy storage systems (BESS). Valeria Amezcua, co-founder of VIA Climate Solutions, points out that the integration of renewable energies poses challenges related to variability, but smart grids and digitalization can offer solutions for gradually adapting the Mexican system to greater wind and solar participation.

Comparison with previous forecasts

For the short-term period 2024-2027, around 18,000 MW of renewable capacities are expected, including 5,501 MW of BESS, 5,025 MW of wind, 3,939 MW of PV-solar, 2,879 MW of PV-DG and 690 MW of hydropower. These figures contrast with the PRODESEN 2023-2037 forecasts, which predicted greater participation by solar PV (6,964 MW) and less capacity for wind and BESS (2,186 MW and 2,605 MW respectively). For the long-term period 2028-2038, renewable capacity additions should reach around 50,000 MW, with 22,662 MW of wind, 8,790 MW of PV-solar and 8,867 MW of BESS. These figures also differ from the previous year’s forecasts, when only 3,991 MW of wind power were expected, with solar PV dominating with around 17,000 MW.

Implications for the I-REC market

Statistics from the I-TRACK Foundation show that International Renewable Energy Certificates (I-RECs) in Mexico mainly come from wind power projects, with a large difference compared to the issuance of solar certificates. Despite these differences, I-REC wind and solar prices were at parity in June 2023, valued respectively at $1.42/MWh for the 2024 vintage and $1.298/MWh for the 2023 vintage. If PRODESEN’s forecasts materialize, the reduction in PV-solar capacity additions and the significant increase in wind power projects could break this parity in wind and solar I-REC prices. Fewer solar power plants would significantly reduce the supply of solar I-REC certificates, thereby increasing their price. On the other hand, the expansion of wind power capacity could lead to an increase in the supply of I-REC certificates for this technology, and a fall in their price. This revision of capacity targets could therefore have a significant impact on the price structure of I-RECs in Mexico, influencing investment strategies in renewable projects for years to come.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Recently published in

Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC), in partnership with the European Union and other financial institutions, has launched the Liberia Energy Efficiency and Access Project (LEEAP). With a budget of €107 million, this initiative aims to improve electricity access and energy efficiency in the country.
Energy Minister Marc Ferracci reaffirmed his opposition to reopening the debate on oil exploration in France. Despite proposals from Overseas Minister Manuel Valls, the government is prioritizing a decarbonization strategy aligned with its international commitments.
Energy Minister Marc Ferracci reaffirmed his opposition to reopening the debate on oil exploration in France. Despite proposals from Overseas Minister Manuel Valls, the government is prioritizing a decarbonization strategy aligned with its international commitments.
Donald Trump has signed a decree creating a National Council for Energy Dominance, aimed at massively increasing electricity production. The goal is to strengthen the United States’ competitiveness in artificial intelligence (AI), a rapidly expanding and energy-intensive sector.
Donald Trump has signed a decree creating a National Council for Energy Dominance, aimed at massively increasing electricity production. The goal is to strengthen the United States’ competitiveness in artificial intelligence (AI), a rapidly expanding and energy-intensive sector.
*Thames Water, a major water supplier in the UK, is facing an environmental investigation over growing concerns regarding its waste management and leaks. This situation raises significant financial stakes for the company.*
*Thames Water, a major water supplier in the UK, is facing an environmental investigation over growing concerns regarding its waste management and leaks. This situation raises significant financial stakes for the company.*
The Medef and thirteen other European employers' organizations launch an initiative to support the nuclear sector in the EU, in response to increasing competitiveness challenges exacerbated by international politics and global economic tensions.
France will invest €100 billion to modernize its power grid by 2035. However, the impact on consumer bills will be limited, according to the network manager RTE.
France will invest €100 billion to modernize its power grid by 2035. However, the impact on consumer bills will be limited, according to the network manager RTE.
The Watt For Change Foundation and the French Development Agency are joining forces to support three initiatives aimed at improving access to renewable energy in Benin, Mauritania, and Madagascar. A €860,000 three-year partnership dedicated to assisting local associations.
The Watt For Change Foundation and the French Development Agency are joining forces to support three initiatives aimed at improving access to renewable energy in Benin, Mauritania, and Madagascar. A €860,000 three-year partnership dedicated to assisting local associations.
The Tanzanian government plans to invest $12.9 billion to add 2.4 GW to its power grid by 2030. This funding aims to expand electricity access to 75% of the population, with significant participation from the private sector.
The Tanzanian government plans to invest $12.9 billion to add 2.4 GW to its power grid by 2030. This funding aims to expand electricity access to 75% of the population, with significant participation from the private sector.
A court demands that all funding linked to federal energy and climate laws, previously suspended, be immediately put back into circulation. This decision is based on a federal judgment challenging the legality of a freeze imposed by the American executive.
At the World Summit on Artificial Intelligence in Paris, Emmanuel Macron highlighted nuclear energy as a power source for technological infrastructures, countering Donald Trump's plans to massively expand oil drilling in the United States.
At the World Summit on Artificial Intelligence in Paris, Emmanuel Macron highlighted nuclear energy as a power source for technological infrastructures, countering Donald Trump's plans to massively expand oil drilling in the United States.
Canada will need to build energy infrastructure on an unprecedented scale to meet the federal government's goal of eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector by 2050. A major technical and economic challenge marked by delays and significant costs.
Canada will need to build energy infrastructure on an unprecedented scale to meet the federal government's goal of eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector by 2050. A major technical and economic challenge marked by delays and significant costs.
The majority of countries have not submitted their new climate roadmaps to the UN before the February 10 deadline. This delay raises questions about the priorities of major economies amid geopolitical shifts and economic uncertainty.
The majority of countries have not submitted their new climate roadmaps to the UN before the February 10 deadline. This delay raises questions about the priorities of major economies amid geopolitical shifts and economic uncertainty.
Joseph Saddi is the new Minister of Energy in Lebanon. He inherits a sector weakened by reliance on imports and failing infrastructure, while international partnerships struggle to restart oil and gas exploration.
Rosatom announces the development of a plasma rocket engine prototype capable of reducing the journey to Mars to just 30 days. This technological breakthrough could have major strategic implications in the race for space exploration.
Rosatom announces the development of a plasma rocket engine prototype capable of reducing the journey to Mars to just 30 days. This technological breakthrough could have major strategic implications in the race for space exploration.
The Canadian government allocates $43.5 million to strengthen energy policy related to critical minerals in Quebec. This investment aims to support infrastructure and research, consolidating the country's strategic supply chains.
The Canadian government allocates $43.5 million to strengthen energy policy related to critical minerals in Quebec. This investment aims to support infrastructure and research, consolidating the country's strategic supply chains.
Electricity consumption in France increased by 0.7% in 2024, reaching 449.2 terawatt-hours, according to RTE. This slight rise marks a turning point after two years of decline but remains well below pre-2020 levels.
Electricity consumption in France increased by 0.7% in 2024, reaching 449.2 terawatt-hours, according to RTE. This slight rise marks a turning point after two years of decline but remains well below pre-2020 levels.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has announced a reduction in renewable energy subsidies in China. New projects will now have to sell their electricity at market prices, marking a transition to a more autonomous economic model.
Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia have finalized their synchronization with the European electricity grid, ending their dependence on Russian infrastructure. This project, funded with €1.6 billion, strengthens the region’s energy security.
Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia have finalized their synchronization with the European electricity grid, ending their dependence on Russian infrastructure. This project, funded with €1.6 billion, strengthens the region’s energy security.
French electricity exports generated a record €5 billion in 2024, driven by increased volumes despite falling market prices. Italy, Germany, and Belgium are among the main importers.
French electricity exports generated a record €5 billion in 2024, driven by increased volumes despite falling market prices. Italy, Germany, and Belgium are among the main importers.
France’s electricity exports generated €5 billion in 2024, an unprecedented level driven by increased volumes despite declining market prices. Italy, Germany, and Belgium were among the main importers.
France’s electricity exports generated €5 billion in 2024, an unprecedented level driven by increased volumes despite declining market prices. Italy, Germany, and Belgium were among the main importers.
La Lituanie, la Lettonie et l'Estonie vont couper leurs derniers liens avec le réseau électrique russe. Ce basculement, prévu le 8 février, marque leur intégration complète au réseau européen après des années de préparation et d'investissements.
Indonesia must manage ambitious climate commitments while maintaining energy stability. The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), aimed at mobilizing $20 billion, faces financial obstacles and uncertainties regarding international funding.
Indonesia must manage ambitious climate commitments while maintaining energy stability. The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), aimed at mobilizing $20 billion, faces financial obstacles and uncertainties regarding international funding.
The recent changes in U.S. tariff policies could affect the global energy industry, particularly trade in key products such as natural gas and renewable energy equipment.
The recent changes in U.S. tariff policies could affect the global energy industry, particularly trade in key products such as natural gas and renewable energy equipment.
The Vietnamese government is adjusting its timeline for the implementation of its carbon market. Initially planned for 2028, the official launch will now take place in 2029 after a three-year pilot phase. This delay aims to strengthen the regulatory and technical framework.
The Vietnamese government is adjusting its timeline for the implementation of its carbon market. Initially planned for 2028, the official launch will now take place in 2029 after a three-year pilot phase. This delay aims to strengthen the regulatory and technical framework.

Advertising