The February 10 deadline set by the UN for the submission of new climate strategies was met by only ten countries, leaving uncertainty over the global energy trajectory. Despite the importance of these plans for energy infrastructure development and industrial planning, major players such as China, India, and the European Union have yet to submit their documents.
A delay with strategic implications
The widespread delay in publishing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) comes as political and economic balances are shifting. Climate commitments require long-term planning, particularly regarding energy transition, investment in renewables, and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
The absence of updated plans from several major economies may be linked to internal and international considerations. In the United States, the return of Donald Trump, who opposes international climate agreements, casts doubt on the implementation of commitments made under the Biden administration. In Europe, inflation and the rise of Eurosceptic parties influence decision-making, while China, the world’s largest investor in renewable energy, remains silent on its roadmap.
A framework without legal constraints
National contributions under the Paris Agreement are not legally binding, which partly explains the lack of penalties for countries missing the deadline. The UN Climate body has acknowledged that this delay may be justified by the complexity of the decisions to be made. Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), emphasized that most countries are expected to submit their plans before COP30 in November.
The European Union has stated that it will finalize its strategy well before this deadline, despite internal political tensions. As for China, it is still expected to announce its position, while its investments in energy infrastructure continue to grow.
A market awaiting clarity
Uncertainty surrounding climate strategies impacts energy and commodity markets. Investors are looking for clear signals to guide their decisions in the renewable energy, hydrocarbons, and decarbonization technology sectors. Political and economic volatility in several regions complicates the establishment of a predictable trajectory.
Observers believe that the absence of new guidelines could slow down some energy infrastructure projects and affect the dynamics of public and private financing. Governments’ and companies’ wait-and-see approach in the face of unformalized commitments may influence investment strategies in the coming years.
