Kazakhstan boosts Tengiz while consolidating ties with OPEC+.

Kazakhstan maintains its OPEC+ obligations despite a planned increase in production from its Tengiz field in 2025. The Kazakh authorities are closely monitoring market developments to adjust their strategy.

Share:

Kazakhstan plans to increase production from its Tengiz oil field, one of the country’s largest, in 2025.
This expansion could add up to 260,000 barrels a day, bringing total production to almost 900,000 barrels daily.
Despite this growth, the Kazakh government remains determined to meet its commitments to OPEC+, a global agreement aimed at stabilizing the oil market through production regulations.
Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev recently confirmed that Kazakhstan is prepared to adapt its production plans in line with market conditions.
However, for the time being, no significant change in production forecasts is envisaged.
This position reflects a strategic balance aimed at reconciling international obligations with domestic growth imperatives, notably with the completion of the Tengiz field expansion.

OPEC+ context: obligations and potential adjustments

OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Kazakhstan, is often under pressure to adjust production in order to maintain price stability on the world market.
For several years, Kazakhstan has occasionally exceeded its production quotas, generating tensions within the group.
However, it has committed to rectifying these excesses through “compensatory cuts”, planned until 2025.
Compliance remains a key issue for OPEC+ members.
Kazakhstan, despite having missed certain targets, is striving to improve its quota compliance.
Last August, a drop in production due to maintenance operations enabled the country to move closer to the levels expected by OPEC+.
The Kazakh government is showing its willingness to adjust to market conditions, while maintaining its active participation in the organization.

Foreign investment and energy prospects

The increase in production at Tengiz is supported by substantial foreign investment, notably through the Tengizchevroil consortium, led by Chevron.
This project, one of the most ambitious in Central Asia, represents a crucial opportunity for Kazakhstan to strengthen its export capabilities while diversifying its partnerships.
At the KIOGE conference in Almaty, Suhail Mazrouei, Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates, reaffirmed the UAE’s interest in Kazakhstan’s energy resources.
The UAE is supporting initiatives to improve Kazakhstan’s logistics infrastructure, reducing the country’s dependence on Russian pipelines.
Among the projects mentioned is the construction of a 1 GW wind farm, in partnership with the Emirati company Masdar.
This cooperation underlines the growing importance of investment in energy infrastructure, not only for oil but for other energy sources as well.

Market impact and price outlook

Kazakh Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev expressed optimism about the outlook for oil prices.
Although OPEC+ members have extended voluntary production cuts until December, there are signs of a recovery in demand, particularly in India and the USA.
This recovery could support crude oil prices in the months ahead, despite recent concerns about possible weak demand.
The increase in production at Tengiz in 2025 could have a significant impact on oil markets, depending in particular on global demand.
Kazakhstan will therefore need to continue fine-tuning its strategy to reconcile its production ambitions with market fluctuations.
Meeting OPEC+ commitments while optimizing exports will be crucial to maintaining long-term stability.
With these developments, Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a key player in the global energy landscape.
However, balancing national growth with international commitments remains a strategic priority for the government.

The private OCP pipeline has resumed operations in Ecuador following an interruption caused by heavy rains, while the main SOTE pipeline remains shut down, continuing to impact oil exports from the South American country.
McDermott secures contract worth up to $50 million with BRAVA Energia to install subsea equipment on the Papa-Terra and Atlanta oil fields off the Brazilian coast.
Saudi Aramco increases its oil prices for Asia beyond initial expectations, reflecting strategic adjustments related to OPEC+ production and regional geopolitical uncertainties, with potential implications for Asian markets.
A bulk carrier operated by a Greek company sailing under a Liberian flag suffered a coordinated attack involving small arms and explosive drones, prompting an Israeli military response against Yemen's Houthis.
The Canadian government is now awaiting a concrete private-sector proposal to develop a new oil pipeline connecting Alberta to the Pacific coast, following recent legislation intended to expedite energy projects.
Petrobras is exploring various strategies for its Polo Bahia oil hub, including potentially selling it, as current profitability is challenged by oil prices around $65 per barrel.
Brazilian producer Azevedo & Travassos will issue new shares to buy Petro-Victory and its forty-nine concessions, consolidating its onshore presence while taking on net debt of about USD39.5mn.
Major oil producers accelerate their return to the market, raising their August quotas more sharply than initially expected, prompting questions about future market balances.
Lindsey refinery could halt operations within three weeks due to limited crude oil reserves, according to a recent analysis by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, highlighting an immediate slowdown in production.
The flow of crude between the Hamada field and the Zawiya refinery has resumed after emergency repairs, illustrating the mounting pressure on Libya’s ageing pipeline network that threatens the stability of domestic supply.
Libreville is intensifying the promotion of deep-water blocks, still seventy-two % unexplored, to offset the two hundred thousand barrels-per-day production drop recorded last year, according to GlobalData.
The African Export-Import Bank extends the Nigerian oil company’s facility, providing room to accelerate drilling and modernisation by 2029 as international lenders scale back hydrocarbon exposure.
Petronas begins a three-well exploratory drilling campaign offshore Suriname, deploying a Noble rig after securing an environmental permit and closely collaborating with state-owned company Staatsolie.
Swiss commodities trader Glencore has initiated discussions with the British government regarding its supply contract with the Lindsey refinery, placed under insolvency this week, threatening hundreds of jobs and the UK's energy security.
Facing an under-equipped downstream sector, Mauritania partners with Sonatrach to create a joint venture aiming to structure petroleum products distribution and reduce import dependency, without yet disclosing specific investments.
Dalinar Energy, a subsidiary of Gold Reserve, receives official recommendation from a US court to acquire PDV Holdings, the parent company of refiner Citgo Petroleum, with a $7.38bn bid, despite a higher competing offer from Vitol.
Oil companies may reduce their exploration and production budgets in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and financial caution, according to a new report by U.S. banking group JP Morgan.
Commercial oil inventories in the United States rose unexpectedly last week, mainly driven by a sharp decline in exports and a significant increase in imports, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
TotalEnergies acquires a 25% stake in Block 53 offshore Suriname, joining APA and Petronas after an agreement with Moeve, thereby consolidating its expansion strategy in the region.
British company Prax Group has filed for insolvency, putting hundreds of jobs at its Lindsey oil site at risk, according to Sky News.