The Israeli government has approved a natural gas export agreement with Egypt with an announced value of 112 billion new Israeli shekels (Israeli shekels) (NIS), or approximately €30 billion. The stated duration is twenty years, with deliveries planned through 2040. The additional volumes mentioned amount to 130 billion cubic meters (milliards de mètres cubes) (BCM). Associated public revenues are estimated at around 58 billion NIS, through royalties, corporate income tax and a windfall profits levy linked to the fiscal framework known as Sheshinski.
An amendment reshaping export volumes
The agreement is presented as an amendment to a framework signed in 2019, with an increase in deliveries to Egypt over the 2025–2040 period. To support these volumes, the Leviathan field consortium is expected to raise announced annual production capacity from 12 BCM to 14 BCM per year via a third subsea pipeline, and then up to 21 BCM per year by 2029. The cited investments include an expansion package estimated at $2.4 billion, as well as a broader effort valued at more than 16 billion NIS. The consortium’s structure is indicated as centered on Chevron, NewMed Energy and Ratio Energies, with respective stakes communicated in documents associated with Leviathan.
The transport architecture also relies on a 65-kilometer onshore project, the Nitzana pipeline, linking the Ramat Beka area to the Nitzana border crossing point. The asset is associated with Israel Natural Gas Lines (the Israeli national gas pipeline company) (INGL) and presented as a complement to flows transiting through the EMG system, East Mediterranean Gas (East Mediterranean Gas pipeline) (EMG), between Ashkelon and El-Arish. The capacity of the Nitzana segment is indicated at 6 BCM per year to Egypt, on a timeline mentioned around 2028–2029. Investment milestones are tied to a final investment decision (final investment decision) (FID) expected for the Leviathan expansion and to the associated transportation contracts.
Egypt: balancing domestic consumption and LNG exports
Cairo is described as seeking to stabilize its supply after Egypt shifted from a net exporter to an importer, in a context of rising domestic demand. Output from the Zohr field, operated by Eni, is reported to be down by around 40%, with technical constraints cited. The cost differential mentioned contrasts pipeline gas imported from Israel with spot market purchases of liquefied natural gas (liquefied natural gas) (LNG), at around $7.75 versus $13.50 per million British thermal units (million d’unités thermiques britanniques) (MMBtu). The industrial scheme includes the liquefaction sites of Idku and Damietta, used to transform part of the molecules delivered into LNG for export, notably to Europe, while relying on floating storage and regasification units (unités flottantes de stockage et de regazéification) (FSRU) to cover seasonal peaks.
The political dimension of the agreement is presented as linked to exchanges on security parameters and to the framework of the 1979 peace treaty, amid persistent regional tensions. Competing initiatives are also mentioned, notably an offer of long-term LNG contracts by Qatar during the delay period, prior to the final validation of the Israeli-Egyptian scheme. The role of the United States is cited as a factor of diplomatic pressure, with a stated interest in Egypt’s economic stability and in protecting investments linked to Chevron in the Eastern Mediterranean (Méditerranée orientale). In Israel, the internal debate focuses on the balance between exports and domestic availability, with announced mechanisms prioritizing the local market and capping supply conditions. The projected public revenue trajectory — NIS 500 million per year in the initial years, rising to up to NIS 6 billion per year from 2033 — places the pace of execution, infrastructure and volume arbitrage at the center of operational decisions by the stakeholders involved.
