Iran Nuclear: An acknowledged capability long kept quiet

Confidential reports from the IAEA and multiple intelligence agencies confirm Iran's uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels, contradicting Tehran's official statements. EnergyNews.pro retraces the evolution of Iran's nuclear program since 2015, three years before the Trump administration's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.

Share:

Gain full professional access to energynews.pro from 4.90$/month.
Designed for decision-makers, with no long-term commitment.

Over 30,000 articles published since 2021.
150 new market analyses every week to decode global energy trends.

Monthly Digital PRO PASS

Immediate Access
4.90$/month*

No commitment – cancel anytime, activation in 2 minutes.

*Special launch offer: 1st month at the indicated price, then 14.90 $/month, no long-term commitment.

Annual Digital PRO Pass

Full Annual Access
99$/year*

To access all of energynews.pro without any limits

*Introductory annual price for year one, automatically renewed at 149.00 $/year from the second year.

While Iran maintains that its nuclear program has never been intended for military purposes, recent precise data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reveal uranium enrichment levels inconsistent with the civilian needs claimed by Tehran. According to these reports, IAEA inspectors have repeatedly confirmed the presence of uranium enriched up to 83.7%, significantly surpassing the commonly accepted limits for medical or energy applications. Iran, however, insists these elevated levels result from occasional technical errors. Such claims have consistently been met with skepticism by technical experts and international intelligence agencies, who find repeated explanations implausible.

Strategic Leap from 60% to 90%

Uranium enrichment becomes technically less challenging as enrichment levels rise—a fact corroborated by leading scientific institutions, including Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Washington Institute. Initial enrichment from natural uranium to 20% requires thousands of centrifuges operating simultaneously for 12 to 18 months, due to the complexity and energy-intensive nature of isotopic separation at lower enrichment levels. However, beyond the 20% threshold—classified internationally as Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU)—the process progressively simplifies, especially beyond the critical threshold of 60%.

Advanced centrifuges, such as the IR-6 models deployed by Iran at Natanz and Fordow, can swiftly elevate uranium from 60% to the 90% weapons-grade required for nuclear arms within mere weeks. According to detailed analyses from the Washington Institute, Iran could feasibly produce sufficient 90%-enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon within less than a month, starting from its existing 60%-enriched stockpile. This extremely short timeframe fundamentally challenges Iran’s official claims of voluntarily limiting its enrichment below military thresholds.

Iran currently holds 408.6 kg of 60%-enriched uranium—equivalent to 604 kg of uranium hexafluoride (UF₆)—enough to produce several nuclear weapons in a very short period. Experts indicate it would only take between 7 to 23 days to convert this stockpile into weapons-grade uranium.

Nuclear Archive Revelations

In January 2018, Mossad, supported by prior intelligence from Saudi Arabian agencies, executed a clandestine operation in Tehran that led to the seizure of over 100,000 documents detailing Iran’s nuclear program, known as Project AMAD. This operation occurred in a warehouse located in southern Tehran, uncovering detailed plans for miniaturized nuclear warheads intended for ballistic missiles and explosive testing results at the Parchin site. Subsequently validated by Western intelligence agencies, these documents clearly demonstrated Iran’s technological capability to design a functional nuclear warhead even at that time.

Israeli Prime Minister at the time, Benjamin Netanyahu, publicly presented these archives in April 2018, declaring them incontrovertible proof of Tehran’s concealed military intentions. This revelation significantly influenced the U.S. decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA), adding a political dimension to this technically complex issue. The IAEA publicly acknowledged the strategic importance of these documents, indirectly confirming their authenticity and operational value.

International Consensus and Strategic Ambiguity

In light of these compelling findings, intelligence agencies from the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and France agree that Iran has likely secretly reached a nuclear capability equivalent or close to a rudimentary weapon since late 2024 or early 2025. Reports suggest this warhead, though likely not officially tested to avoid immediate international backlash, is operational and stored securely. This deliberate ambiguity allowed Iran, until recently, to avoid stricter sanctions and direct military action from the international community.

Israel’s recent decision to directly target Iranian nuclear sites is thus closely linked to these technical and strategic insights, rather than purely political or regional motivations. By officially maintaining a 60% enrichment ceiling, Iran has strategically retained diplomatic negotiating space while preserving nearly immediate nuclear breakout capability. This dual strategy precisely explains Israel’s proactive stance.

Before the recent conflict, Iran had installed 14,689 advanced centrifuges, primarily IR-2m, IR-4, and IR-6 models, mostly located in secure facilities at Natanz and Fordow. The IR-6 cascades at Fordow, positioned deep underground, are directly linked to a potential military breakout phase. These capabilities greatly narrow diplomatic options and inevitably call for international military cooperation in this crisis.

Following a week of military escalation between Israel and Iran, the numbers—408 kg of uranium at 60%, breakout potential within three weeks, and thousands of operational IR-6 centrifuges—underscore the immediate nuclear threat. This context reframes Israel’s military intervention, seen by its allies not as an isolated initiative, but as an urgent response to an acknowledged yet previously unaddressed threat.

SOURCES

The Nurlikum Mining joint venture enters a new industrial phase with the launch of the South Djengeldi project, targeting annual production of 500 tonnes of uranium over ten years in Uzbekistan.
The containment structure over Chernobyl’s destroyed reactor lost power after a Russian strike, as Zaporizhzhia remains cut off from external electricity for over a week.
Uranium deliveries to U.S. civilian operators rose 8% in 2024, while the average price climbed to its highest level since 2012, according to the latest available data.
The Vice-Chairman of Russia’s Security Council believes more countries will develop nuclear weapons and generative AI technologies as a result of increasing public sector efforts.
An international tribunal ruled in favour of French company Orano against the State of Niger, which had blocked the sale of uranium extracted from the Arlit mine since taking control of the site in 2023.
US-based Oklo and Sweden’s Blykalla join forces to coordinate supply chains and regulatory data sharing to accelerate the commercial deployment of their metal-cooled small modular reactors.
EDF plans a massive €25bn ($26.5bn) investment to modernise its nuclear fleet, focusing on reactor lifetime extension and preparing for new nuclear projects in France.
The French Energy Regulatory Commission set the full nuclear cost at €60.3/MWh by 2026, outlining the taxation thresholds applicable under the market reform scheduled for 2026.
The Ministry of Energy will initiate talks with developers of small nuclear reactors after signing a cooperation agreement with the United States to conduct preliminary studies on their deployment.
The restart of the Flamanville EPR reactor, initially scheduled for 1 October, has been delayed by more than two weeks due to a maintenance operation on the primary circuit.
The International Atomic Energy Agency says known natural uranium reserves will meet global nuclear power plant demand for the rest of the century, despite price pressures.
Site selection for Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant enters an advanced technical phase, with more than 100 experts mobilised by Rosatom to conduct complex geological and seismic analyses.
The ICSID arbitral tribunal ordered Niger to suspend any sale of uranium produced by SOMAÏR, ruling that this material falls under Orano’s contractual rights, amid a dispute with the State that has lasted for several months.
US-based TNC has entered into a strategic agreement with Nucor Corporation to expand gigawatt-scale nuclear capacity in line with federal targets of 400 GW by 2050.
Framatome and Italian agency ENEA have signed an agreement to design nuclear reactors capable of powering future human settlements on the Moon, amid growing European ambitions in space.
A technical report backed by the Government of Alberta confirms the potential of the Xe-100 reactor to meet the province’s industrial and electrical energy needs.
Drones were detected within 500 metres of the South Ukraine nuclear power plant, while Zaporizhzhia remains without off-site power.
At World Atomic Week in Moscow, the Russian president advocated for a reform of civil nuclear funding mechanisms, urging stronger involvement from multilateral financial institutions.
Seoul estimates Pyongyang holds enough highly enriched uranium to produce up to 50 atomic bombs, reigniting concerns over its growing nuclear arsenal despite international sanctions.
Romanian producer Nuclearelectrica has secured €620mn in funding to modernise Cernavoda unit 1 and launch the next phase of units 3 and 4, backed by a banking syndicate led by JP Morgan.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.

[wc_register_modal]