Iran Nuclear: An acknowledged capability long kept quiet

Confidential reports from the IAEA and multiple intelligence agencies confirm Iran's uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels, contradicting Tehran's official statements. EnergyNews.pro retraces the evolution of Iran's nuclear program since 2015, three years before the Trump administration's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.

Share:

Comprehensive energy news coverage, updated nonstop

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access • Archives included • Professional invoice

OTHER ACCESS OPTIONS

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

FREE ACCOUNT

3 articles offered per month

FREE

*Prices are excluding VAT, which may vary depending on your location or professional status

Since 2021: 35,000 articles • 150+ analyses per week

While Iran maintains that its nuclear program has never been intended for military purposes, recent precise data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reveal uranium enrichment levels inconsistent with the civilian needs claimed by Tehran. According to these reports, IAEA inspectors have repeatedly confirmed the presence of uranium enriched up to 83.7%, significantly surpassing the commonly accepted limits for medical or energy applications. Iran, however, insists these elevated levels result from occasional technical errors. Such claims have consistently been met with skepticism by technical experts and international intelligence agencies, who find repeated explanations implausible.

Strategic Leap from 60% to 90%

Uranium enrichment becomes technically less challenging as enrichment levels rise—a fact corroborated by leading scientific institutions, including Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Washington Institute. Initial enrichment from natural uranium to 20% requires thousands of centrifuges operating simultaneously for 12 to 18 months, due to the complexity and energy-intensive nature of isotopic separation at lower enrichment levels. However, beyond the 20% threshold—classified internationally as Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU)—the process progressively simplifies, especially beyond the critical threshold of 60%.

Advanced centrifuges, such as the IR-6 models deployed by Iran at Natanz and Fordow, can swiftly elevate uranium from 60% to the 90% weapons-grade required for nuclear arms within mere weeks. According to detailed analyses from the Washington Institute, Iran could feasibly produce sufficient 90%-enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon within less than a month, starting from its existing 60%-enriched stockpile. This extremely short timeframe fundamentally challenges Iran’s official claims of voluntarily limiting its enrichment below military thresholds.

Iran currently holds 408.6 kg of 60%-enriched uranium—equivalent to 604 kg of uranium hexafluoride (UF₆)—enough to produce several nuclear weapons in a very short period. Experts indicate it would only take between 7 to 23 days to convert this stockpile into weapons-grade uranium.

Nuclear Archive Revelations

In January 2018, Mossad, supported by prior intelligence from Saudi Arabian agencies, executed a clandestine operation in Tehran that led to the seizure of over 100,000 documents detailing Iran’s nuclear program, known as Project AMAD. This operation occurred in a warehouse located in southern Tehran, uncovering detailed plans for miniaturized nuclear warheads intended for ballistic missiles and explosive testing results at the Parchin site. Subsequently validated by Western intelligence agencies, these documents clearly demonstrated Iran’s technological capability to design a functional nuclear warhead even at that time.

Israeli Prime Minister at the time, Benjamin Netanyahu, publicly presented these archives in April 2018, declaring them incontrovertible proof of Tehran’s concealed military intentions. This revelation significantly influenced the U.S. decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA), adding a political dimension to this technically complex issue. The IAEA publicly acknowledged the strategic importance of these documents, indirectly confirming their authenticity and operational value.

International Consensus and Strategic Ambiguity

In light of these compelling findings, intelligence agencies from the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and France agree that Iran has likely secretly reached a nuclear capability equivalent or close to a rudimentary weapon since late 2024 or early 2025. Reports suggest this warhead, though likely not officially tested to avoid immediate international backlash, is operational and stored securely. This deliberate ambiguity allowed Iran, until recently, to avoid stricter sanctions and direct military action from the international community.

Israel’s recent decision to directly target Iranian nuclear sites is thus closely linked to these technical and strategic insights, rather than purely political or regional motivations. By officially maintaining a 60% enrichment ceiling, Iran has strategically retained diplomatic negotiating space while preserving nearly immediate nuclear breakout capability. This dual strategy precisely explains Israel’s proactive stance.

Before the recent conflict, Iran had installed 14,689 advanced centrifuges, primarily IR-2m, IR-4, and IR-6 models, mostly located in secure facilities at Natanz and Fordow. The IR-6 cascades at Fordow, positioned deep underground, are directly linked to a potential military breakout phase. These capabilities greatly narrow diplomatic options and inevitably call for international military cooperation in this crisis.

Following a week of military escalation between Israel and Iran, the numbers—408 kg of uranium at 60%, breakout potential within three weeks, and thousands of operational IR-6 centrifuges—underscore the immediate nuclear threat. This context reframes Israel’s military intervention, seen by its allies not as an isolated initiative, but as an urgent response to an acknowledged yet previously unaddressed threat.

SOURCES

NextEra Energy announces an agreement with Google to restart a nuclear plant in Iowa, with operations expected to resume as early as 2029 and full site ownership secured.
The environmental review of TerraPower’s Natrium project in Wyoming has been completed, paving the way for a construction permit for this advanced nuclear reactor.
Santee Cooper has selected Brookfield Asset Management to lead a feasibility study aimed at completing two unfinished AP1000 reactors, without relying on public funds or raising consumer rates.
Endesa, Iberdrola and Naturgy have officially requested the Spanish government to delay the closure of the Almaraz nuclear power plant, originally scheduled for 2028, reigniting the debate on nuclear power's role in the national energy mix.
The reactor vessel for Unit 1 at Egypt’s El Dabaa nuclear plant has been delivered following a 20-day maritime transport from Saint Petersburg, marking a critical milestone in the country’s energy project.
Ontario Power Generation secures CAD3bn ($2.1bn) in public equity financing to construct four modular reactors at Darlington, aiming to ease private sector entry into next-generation nuclear infrastructure.
French developer Newcleo launches a joint venture with Nextchem through a EUR70 mn contract to design the conventional island of its upcoming 200 MW modular nuclear reactors.
NANO Nuclear strengthens its North American strategy by acquiring Global First Power in Canada, securing regulatory rights for its KRONOS MMR™ project at Chalk River.
South Korea becomes the first country to submit a safeguards technical report to the IAEA for a small modular reactor, setting a precedent for early integration of non-proliferation requirements in nuclear design.
The Environmental Authority criticises the lack of key data on health risks, chemical discharges and construction safety for EDF's two upcoming EPR2 reactors in Seine-Maritime.
Brazil and China have concluded a three-year agreement to secure access to essential radioisotopes for the medical, industrial and scientific sectors, with no financial exchange between the parties.
US-based developer Last Energy will deploy its first domestic microreactor at Texas A&M-RELLIS, marking a strategic step in the advanced modular reactor race.
PGE acquires ZE PAK's stake in the joint venture responsible for developing Poland’s second nuclear site, consolidating a strategic asset within its energy portfolio.
Amazon unveils new visuals of its upcoming nuclear site, marking a key step in its partnership with X-energy to deploy up to 960 MW of modular nuclear capacity in Washington state.
Canadian uranium producer NexGen Energy has completed a A$1bn ($639mn) equity raise split between North American and Australian markets to support the development of its Rook I project.
Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings is examining the permanent closure of units 1 and 2 at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, the oldest at the site, while continuing efforts to restart unit 6.
The formal expiration of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran comes as international sanctions have already been reinstated and diplomatic negotiations remain stalled.
Oklo, newcleo and Blykalla partner to develop advanced nuclear fuel infrastructure in the United States, backed by a planned $2bn investment.
enCore Energy has identified three new uranium roll fronts at its Alta Mesa project, with ongoing drilling aimed at defining their extent and accelerating development work.
California-based Radiant will build its first microreactor production facility in Oak Ridge, on a former Manhattan Project site, with production targeted at 50 units per year by 2028.

All the latest energy news, all the time

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access - Archives included - Pro invoice

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

*Prices shown are exclusive of VAT, which may vary according to your location or professional status.

Since 2021: 30,000 articles - +150 analyses/week.