popular articles

Increase in Premiums for 2025 LNG Contracts Following Trump’s Victory

Increase in Premiums for 2025 LNG Contracts Following Trump’s Victory

Please share:

The impact of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election is particularly evident in the LNG (liquefied natural gas) contracts for 2025. The premiums for Cal-2025 contracts for the European TTF (Title Transfer Facility) benchmark gas reached a year-high of 7.65 EUR/MWh on November 11, 2024, before slightly decreasing to 7.22 EUR/MWh on November 12. This sharp increase in premiums for 2025 contracts over 2026 is due to several factors, including uncertainty over Trump’s future policies, concerns about supply security, and delays in liquefaction projects.

Factors Influencing the Increase in Premiums

The increase in premiums can be attributed to several key factors. First, the market anticipates strong near-term demand, fueled by geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs—especially on China—and potential protectionist policies from the Trump administration. These uncertainties weigh heavily on market stability, and market participants are seeking to protect themselves against heightened volatility, thus driving up premiums for 2025 contracts.

Second, delays in major liquefaction projects like the Golden Pass project in the United States, initially expected for 2024 but now delayed to 2025 or even 2026, contribute to supply tensions for LNG in 2025. Analysts believe these delays could push prices higher for this contract period.

Uncertainty Regarding Gas Transit Through Ukraine

Another source of uncertainty affecting the market is the situation surrounding gas transit through Ukraine, which is expected to see its contract expire at the end of 2024. Speculation about a new transit agreement between Ukraine and Azerbaijan further fuels uncertainty about gas supply. The lack of clarity regarding the future of gas flows between these countries directly impacts the pricing of future contracts.

Meanwhile, the expansion of liquefaction capacity in Qatar, with new liquefaction trains being constructed at the QatarEnergy LNG project at Ras Laffan, which is expected to be commercially operational in 2026, is likely to ease the supply situation by 2026. However, expectations for LNG demand, particularly from countries like Brazil and Egypt, continue to keep upward pressure on prices for 2025.

The Price Trend for 2025

The rise in premiums for 2025 also reflects strong expected demand, with countries like Brazil and Egypt actively seeking to secure LNG on the international market. These nations, facing declining hydroelectric reserves and decreasing domestic natural gas production, find themselves needing to buy more LNG, further contributing to upward pressure on 2025 contract prices.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Recently published in

The Miami-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider announces its name change, marking its expansion into energy solutions while consolidating its commitment to reliable and affordable LNG solutions.
Morocco is implementing a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal project at Nador West Med to diversify its energy supply sources and reduce its dependence on coal.
Morocco is implementing a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal project at Nador West Med to diversify its energy supply sources and reduce its dependence on coal.
Woodside has signed LNG sale and purchase agreements with Uniper, securing the supply of 2 million tonnes per year, confirming strong global demand for LNG.
Woodside has signed LNG sale and purchase agreements with Uniper, securing the supply of 2 million tonnes per year, confirming strong global demand for LNG.
Baker Hughes posted strong quarterly results, driven by a 9% increase in orders for its Industrial & Energy Technology division, despite a 50% drop in cash flow during the same period.
Baker Hughes posted strong quarterly results, driven by a 9% increase in orders for its Industrial & Energy Technology division, despite a 50% drop in cash flow during the same period.
Malaysia LNG is progressively resuming operations following an unexpected shutdown of key modules at Bintulu due to a boiler malfunction, raising questions about the impacts on Asian and international liquefied natural gas markets.
French group GTT anticipates growing demand for LNG tankers following the revival of liquefied natural gas terminal projects in the United States under President Donald Trump’s leadership.
French group GTT anticipates growing demand for LNG tankers following the revival of liquefied natural gas terminal projects in the United States under President Donald Trump’s leadership.
Eni and YPF have signed a memorandum of understanding to evaluate Eni's participation in the Argentina LNG project, aimed at developing resources from the Vaca Muerta gas field and exporting up to 30 million tons of LNG per year.
Eni and YPF have signed a memorandum of understanding to evaluate Eni's participation in the Argentina LNG project, aimed at developing resources from the Vaca Muerta gas field and exporting up to 30 million tons of LNG per year.
bp has safely loaded the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) Phase 1 project, marking Mauritania and Senegal’s entry into the global LNG export market.
bp has safely loaded the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) Phase 1 project, marking Mauritania and Senegal’s entry into the global LNG export market.
Eni is set to award a $2.5bn contract for a new floating LNG unit off Mozambique, aiming to intensify the development of the Coral North gas field.
TotalEnergies expands its liquefied natural gas portfolio with a long-term supply deal in Texas and a sales contract to the Dominican Republic starting in 2027.
TotalEnergies expands its liquefied natural gas portfolio with a long-term supply deal in Texas and a sales contract to the Dominican Republic starting in 2027.
The coal-fired plant in Saint-Avold will be converted to gas and biogas under a recently approved law, preserving 500 jobs without public financial support.
The coal-fired plant in Saint-Avold will be converted to gas and biogas under a recently approved law, preserving 500 jobs without public financial support.
Mubadala Energy acquires 24.1% of Kimmeridge’s SoTex HoldCo, marking its first foray into the US gas and LNG market.
Mubadala Energy acquires 24.1% of Kimmeridge’s SoTex HoldCo, marking its first foray into the US gas and LNG market.
China is increasing imports of Russian liquefied petroleum gas, but Russia's infrastructure limitations complicate the complete replacement of U.S. LPG, despite joint projects aimed at overcoming these constraints by late 2025.
A lasting peace in Ukraine could revive Russian exports to Europe and weigh on the future of liquefied natural gas projects in the United States.
A lasting peace in Ukraine could revive Russian exports to Europe and weigh on the future of liquefied natural gas projects in the United States.
Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd. continues preparations at Prospect I, located in licence PEL73 in Namibia, aiming for 365 million barrels of unrisked oil resources.
Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd. continues preparations at Prospect I, located in licence PEL73 in Namibia, aiming for 365 million barrels of unrisked oil resources.
Baghdad has signed a strategic agreement with GE Vernova to build natural gas power plants totalling 24,000 MW, as the country seeks to reduce its energy dependence on Iran.
Baghdad has signed a strategic agreement with GE Vernova to build natural gas power plants totalling 24,000 MW, as the country seeks to reduce its energy dependence on Iran.
Italian group Snam will acquire nearly a quarter of Open Grid Europe for €920mn, expanding its gas infrastructure presence in Germany, subject to regulatory approvals expected by the third quarter of 2025.
Perenco will acquire Woodside’s oil and gas assets in Trinidad and Tobago, expanding its national output beyond 500 million standard cubic feet per day following expected closing by the third quarter of 2025.
Perenco will acquire Woodside’s oil and gas assets in Trinidad and Tobago, expanding its national output beyond 500 million standard cubic feet per day following expected closing by the third quarter of 2025.
Sasol confirms the launch in September 2025 of a key gas project to supply a major power station in Mozambique, following an unexplained delay from the originally scheduled March date.
Sasol confirms the launch in September 2025 of a key gas project to supply a major power station in Mozambique, following an unexplained delay from the originally scheduled March date.
Italian company Eni has initiated a major engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) tender for its $17.49 billion Kutei North Hub gas project offshore Indonesia.
Italian company Eni has initiated a major engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) tender for its $17.49 billion Kutei North Hub gas project offshore Indonesia.
TAQA will lead the construction and operation of a 1 GW gas-fired power plant in Al Dhafra as part of a strategic partnership with EWEC, supporting a total energy infrastructure investment of AED36bn in Abu Dhabi.
The bp Trinidad and Tobago joint venture has launched production at the offshore Cypre field, marking bp’s second major start-up in 2025 and strengthening its shallow-water footprint in the region.
The bp Trinidad and Tobago joint venture has launched production at the offshore Cypre field, marking bp’s second major start-up in 2025 and strengthening its shallow-water footprint in the region.
Shell has finalised the acquisition of Pavilion Energy in Singapore, integrating a portfolio of 6.5 mtpa LNG contracts, regasification capacity, and bunkering activities.
Shell has finalised the acquisition of Pavilion Energy in Singapore, integrating a portfolio of 6.5 mtpa LNG contracts, regasification capacity, and bunkering activities.
The potential lifting of U.S. sanctions on the Arctic LNG 2 project paves the way for a rapid resumption of Russian liquefied natural gas exports, significantly impacting global markets from the third quarter of 2025.
The potential lifting of U.S. sanctions on the Arctic LNG 2 project paves the way for a rapid resumption of Russian liquefied natural gas exports, significantly impacting global markets from the third quarter of 2025.

Advertising