SUBSCRIBE
PROFILE

Increase in Premiums for 2025 LNG Contracts Following Trump’s Victory

Increase in Premiums for 2025 LNG Contracts Following Trump’s Victory

Share:

Comprehensive energy news coverage, updated nonstop

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access • Archives included • Professional invoice

SUBSCRIBE - 99$/year

OTHER ACCESS OPTIONS

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

FREE ACCOUNT

3 articles offered per month

FREE

*Prices are excluding VAT, which may vary depending on your location or professional status

Since 2021: 35,000 articles • 150+ analyses per week

The impact of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election is particularly evident in the LNG (liquefied natural gas) contracts for 2025. The premiums for Cal-2025 contracts for the European TTF (Title Transfer Facility) benchmark gas reached a year-high of 7.65 EUR/MWh on November 11, 2024, before slightly decreasing to 7.22 EUR/MWh on November 12. This sharp increase in premiums for 2025 contracts over 2026 is due to several factors, including uncertainty over Trump’s future policies, concerns about supply security, and delays in liquefaction projects.

Factors Influencing the Increase in Premiums

The increase in premiums can be attributed to several key factors. First, the market anticipates strong near-term demand, fueled by geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs—especially on China—and potential protectionist policies from the Trump administration. These uncertainties weigh heavily on market stability, and market participants are seeking to protect themselves against heightened volatility, thus driving up premiums for 2025 contracts.

Second, delays in major liquefaction projects like the Golden Pass project in the United States, initially expected for 2024 but now delayed to 2025 or even 2026, contribute to supply tensions for LNG in 2025. Analysts believe these delays could push prices higher for this contract period.

Uncertainty Regarding Gas Transit Through Ukraine

Another source of uncertainty affecting the market is the situation surrounding gas transit through Ukraine, which is expected to see its contract expire at the end of 2024. Speculation about a new transit agreement between Ukraine and Azerbaijan further fuels uncertainty about gas supply. The lack of clarity regarding the future of gas flows between these countries directly impacts the pricing of future contracts.

Meanwhile, the expansion of liquefaction capacity in Qatar, with new liquefaction trains being constructed at the QatarEnergy LNG project at Ras Laffan, which is expected to be commercially operational in 2026, is likely to ease the supply situation by 2026. However, expectations for LNG demand, particularly from countries like Brazil and Egypt, continue to keep upward pressure on prices for 2025.

The Price Trend for 2025

The rise in premiums for 2025 also reflects strong expected demand, with countries like Brazil and Egypt actively seeking to secure LNG on the international market. These nations, facing declining hydroelectric reserves and decreasing domestic natural gas production, find themselves needing to buy more LNG, further contributing to upward pressure on 2025 contract prices.

  • Popular on energynews.pro
Sofia activates emergency plan as US sanctions on Lukoil approach
Naked Energy expands solar thermal operations to Spain and Portugal
Putin and Tokayev strengthen regional energy partnership with Uzbekistan
Delays in U.S. solar projects fall to 20% in Q3
Masdar launches Uzbekistan’s largest battery energy storage project
CSV commissions Albright plant, expanding sour gas processing deployment in Canada
CSV Midstream Solutions launched operations at its Albright facility in the Montney, marking a key milestone in the deployment of Canadian sour gas treatment and sulphur recovery capacity.
Glenfarne forms strategic alliance with Baker Hughes to accelerate Alaska LNG
Glenfarne has selected Baker Hughes to supply critical equipment for the Alaska LNG project, including a strategic investment, reinforcing the progress of one of the largest gas infrastructure initiatives in the United States.
Gas Liquids Engineering secures construction clearance for Canada’s REEF terminal
Gas Liquids Engineering completed the engineering phase of the REEF project, a strategic liquefied gas infrastructure developed by AltaGas and Vopak to boost Canadian exports to Asia.
KNPC plans gas production increase to 18.3 million cylinders by 2027
Kuwait National Petroleum Company aims to boost gas production to meet domestic demand driven by demographic growth and new residential projects.
Jinhong Gas invests in Spain with a strategic cryogenic unit
Chinese group Jinhong Gas finalises a new industrial investment in Spain, marking its first European establishment and strengthening its global strategy in the industrial gas sector.
Three U.S. gas basins reshape prices, flows and contracts
Appalachia, Permian and Haynesville each reach the scale of a national producer, anchor the United States’ exportable supply and set regional differentials, LNG arbitrage and compliance constraints across the chain, amid capacity ramp-ups and reinforced sanctions.
AltaGas raises $460mn to strengthen financial structure and retain MVP
AltaGas finalises a $460mn equity raise linked to the strategic retention of its stake in the Mountain Valley Pipeline, prompting credit outlook upgrades from S&P and Fitch.
Vallourec to deliver over 30,000 tonnes of pipes for TotalEnergies in Iraq
TotalEnergies has tasked Vallourec with supplying tubular solutions for drilling 48 wells as part of its integrated gas project in Iraq, reinforcing their ongoing industrial cooperation on the Ratawi field.
JERA launches environmental assessment for 2.6GW gas plant project in Sodegaura
The Japanese energy group plans to replace four steam turbines at its Sodegaura site with three combined-cycle gas turbines, with full commissioning targeted for 2041.
Petrus Resources increases quarterly production and reduces net debt
Petrus Resources recorded a 7% increase in production in the third quarter of 2025, along with a reduction in net debt and a 21% rise in cash flow.
Venture Global signs 20-year deal to supply LNG to the Balkans via Greece
Venture Global has signed a liquefied natural gas sales agreement with Atlantic-See LNG Trade S.A., a newly formed Greek joint venture, to supply 0.5 million tonnes annually starting in 2030, reinforcing regional energy security.
INNIO and KMW build 54 MW gas-fired power plant to secure data centres
INNIO and KMW partner to construct a 54 MW modular gas power plant in Mainz, designed to stabilise the grid and ensure supply to the future Green Rocks data centre.
ExxonMobil takes 60% stake in gas exploration permit in Greece’s Ionian Sea
ExxonMobil joins a Greek energy consortium to explore a gas field in the Ionian Sea, strengthening its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean after Chevron, amid post-Russian energy diversification efforts.
Pembina and PETRONAS sign 20-year agreement for Cedar LNG liquefaction capacity
Pembina Pipeline Corporation and PETRONAS have signed a long-term agreement securing 1 million tonnes per year of liquefaction capacity at Canada's Cedar LNG terminal, reinforcing their positions in the global liquefied natural gas market.
NG Energy reaches 40 MMcf/d gas output in Colombia through Aruchara-4 and Sinú-9 wells
NG Energy boosts its gas production in Colombia to 40 MMcf/d, with projected sales above $11.00 per MMBtu and expected profitability in Q4 2025.
Toshiba and GE Vernova partner to reduce emissions from gas-fired plants in Asia
Toshiba and GE Vernova have signed a memorandum of understanding to deploy integrated CO2 capture solutions in combined-cycle gas plants in Asia, reinforcing a long-standing industrial partnership.
ONE Gas narrows 2025 guidance after 37% rise in quarterly profit
ONE Gas posted higher third-quarter 2025 results with a net income increase, while adjusting its annual earnings forecast and maintaining investments in gas infrastructure expansion.
Constitution pipeline could generate $11.6bn in savings in the US Northeast
Construction of the Constitution pipeline would reduce gas price volatility in the US Northeast, while generating up to $4.4bn in regional gross product and nearly 2,000 jobs per year.
Ovintiv completes $2.7bn acquisition of NuVista to expand Montney position
Ovintiv has reached a definitive agreement to acquire NuVista Energy for $2.7bn, adding 140,000 net acres and nearly 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Canada’s Montney.
Entergy and Energy Transfer sign 20-year gas deal to support Louisiana industry
Entergy Louisiana and Energy Transfer have signed a gas transportation contract to supply new industrial projects in North Louisiana, reinforcing their long-term energy commitment.

All the latest energy news, all the time

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access - Archives included - Pro invoice

START - 99$/year

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

*Prices shown are exclusive of VAT, which may vary according to your location or professional status.

Since 2021: 30,000 articles - +150 analyses/week.