IEA forecasts oil surplus by 2030

Global oil production could exceed demand by 8 million barrels per day by 2030, according to the IEA. This situation is attributed to a combination of rising production and energy transition, which poses challenges for the oil industry.

Share:

Excédent pétrole 2030 prévision IEA

Comprehensive energy news coverage, updated nonstop

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access • Archives included • Professional invoice

OTHER ACCESS OPTIONS

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

FREE ACCOUNT

3 articles offered per month

FREE

*Prices are excluding VAT, which may vary depending on your location or professional status

Since 2021: 35,000 articles • 150+ analyses per week

Oil demand will stabilize at 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, while production will reach 114 million barrels. The IEA forecasts a major surplus, impacted by the energy transition.

A looming oil surplus

Global oil production is set to exceed demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA’s annual oil report anticipates a “major” surplus of 8 million barrels per day by 2030, as a result of increased production and the transition to clean energy. Global demand should stabilize at around 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, while global supply capacity could reach 114 million barrels. This unprecedented situation would pose significant challenges for oil companies, who would have to adjust their strategies and business plans accordingly.

Transition Factors

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol points out that growth in global oil demand is slowing due to the energy transition and the evolution of the Chinese economy. These factors, combined with increased sales of electric cars and improved fuel efficiency of internal combustion vehicles, should cap oil demand at 106 million barrels per day by 2030. Advanced economies, in particular, should see their demand for oil continue to fall, from nearly 46 million barrels per day in 2023 to less than 43 million barrels per day in 2030, its lowest level since 1991, excluding the period of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Impact of Clean Energy and OPEC+.

Governments and companies around the world are stepping up investment in clean energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, global oil production is set to rise, driven in particular bynon-OPEC+ producers such as the United States. This should generate a surplus of 8 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, levels unseen outside the Covid-19 crisis. Such a surplus could lead to an environment of low oil prices, posing challenges for the US shale industry and the OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Short-term demand forecasts

In its monthly report, the IEA slightly lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, estimating it at 960,000 barrels per day, compared with 1.1 million previously. For 2025, the agency expects a modest increase in demand of 1 million barrels per day, below its previous estimate of 1.2 million. The oil industry is therefore gearing up for a period of significant overproduction, prompting industry players to adjust their strategies to navigate a rapidly changing market environment.

In September 2025, French road fuel consumption rose by 3%, driven by a rebound in unleaded fuels, while overall energy petroleum product consumption fell by 1.8% year-on-year.
Société Ivoirienne de Raffinage receives major funding to upgrade facilities and produce diesel fuel in line with ECOWAS standards, with commissioning expected by 2029.
India is funding Mongolia’s first oil refinery through its largest line of credit, with operations scheduled to begin by 2028, according to official sources.
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warns of growing consumption still dominated by hydrocarbons, despite massive global energy transition investments.
China imported an average of 11.5 million barrels of crude oil per day in September, supported by higher refining rates among both state-run and independent operators.
The New Vista vessel, loaded with Abu Dhabi crude, avoided Rizhao port after the United States sanctioned the oil terminal partly operated by a Sinopec subsidiary.
OPEC confirms its global oil demand growth forecasts and anticipates a much smaller deficit for 2026, due to increased production from OPEC+ members.
JANAF is interested in acquiring a 20 to 25% stake in NIS, as the Russian-owned share is now subject to US sanctions.
The US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on more than 50 entities linked to Iranian oil exports, targeting Chinese refineries and vessels registered in Asia and Africa.
Khartoum et Juba annoncent un mécanisme commun pour protéger les oléoducs transfrontaliers, sans clarifier le rôle des forces armées non étatiques qui contrôlent une partie des installations.
The Namibian government signed an agreement with McDermott to strengthen local skills in offshore engineering and operations, aiming to increase oil sector local content to 15% by 2030.
Nigeria deploys a 2.2 million-barrel floating storage unit funded by public investment, strengthening sovereignty over oil exports and reducing losses from theft and infrastructure failures.
Despite open statements of dialogue, the federal government maintains an ambiguous regulatory framework that hinders interprovincial oil projects, leaving the industry in doubt.
Canada’s Sintana Energy acquires Challenger Energy in a $61mn all-share deal, targeting offshore exploration in Namibia and Uruguay. The move highlights growing consolidation among independent oil exploration firms.
The 120,000-barrel-per-day catalytic cracking unit at the Beaumont site resumed operations after an unexpected shutdown caused by a technical incident earlier in the week.
An agreement was reached between Khartoum and Juba to protect key oil installations, as ongoing armed conflict continues to threaten crude flows vital to both economies.
Alnaft has signed two study agreements with Omani firm Petrogas E&P on the Touggourt and Berkine basins, aiming to update hydrocarbon potential in key oil-producing areas.
Import quotas exhaustion and falling demand push Chinese independent refineries to sharply reduce Iranian crude volumes, affecting supply levels and putting downward pressure on prices.
Serbian oil company NIS, partially owned by Gazprom, faces newly enforced US sanctions after a nine-month reprieve, testing the country's fuel supply chain.
US-based Chevron appoints Kevin McLachlan, a veteran of TotalEnergies, as its global head of exploration, in a strategic move targeting Nigeria, Angola and Namibia.

All the latest energy news, all the time

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access - Archives included - Pro invoice

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

*Prices shown are exclusive of VAT, which may vary according to your location or professional status.

Since 2021: 30,000 articles - +150 analyses/week.