IEA cuts global refinery runs forecasts

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecasts for global refinery runs due to weak profit margins, particularly impacting China and Europe.

Share:

Gain full professional access to energynews.pro from 4.90$/month.
Designed for decision-makers, with no long-term commitment.

Over 30,000 articles published since 2021.
150 new market analyses every week to decode global energy trends.

Monthly Digital PRO PASS

Immediate Access
4.90$/month*

No commitment – cancel anytime, activation in 2 minutes.

*Special launch offer: 1st month at the indicated price, then 14.90 $/month, no long-term commitment.

Annual Digital PRO Pass

Full Annual Access
99$/year*

To access all of energynews.pro without any limits

*Introductory annual price for year one, automatically renewed at 149.00 $/year from the second year.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its estimates for global refinery runs due to insufficient profit margins. This revision comes amid volatility in crude oil prices and tensions in global energy markets.

In 2024, the IEA now expects refinery throughput of 82.8 million barrels per day (b/d), down 180,000 b/d from its previous estimates. For 2025, the throughput is revised to 83.4 million b/d, down 210,000 b/d. This trend reflects growing pressure on refineries, particularly in China and Europe, where margins continue to deteriorate.

Impact of Margins on Refineries

Refining margins fell further in September as the cracks between gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel prices deteriorated, despite an improvement in crude prices in a relatively tight market. This situation prompted the IEA to revise its forecasts for global refinery runs lower this year.

Reduction in China and Growth Prospects

So far this year, the IEA has cut its forecast for global runs in 2024 by 500,000 b/d, primarily driven by a reduction in Chinese throughput. However, it anticipates a rebound in Chinese throughput in 2025 with the startup of the new Yulong refinery. This greenfield refinery, with a capacity of 400,000 b/d, began trial runs at the end of August and is expected to operate at about 65% capacity during the testing phase, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

Prospects for Europe

Despite the downward revisions, the IEA expects year-on-year increases in refinery runs of 540,000 b/d in 2024 and 610,000 b/d in 2025. However, the agency reiterated its estimate of a 240,000 b/d reduction in Europe in Q4, noting that further cuts are possible if margins deteriorate.

Pressure on European Refineries

Declining profits have put growing pressure on refiners, with Commodity Insights analysts reducing their Q4 2024 refinery run forecasts by 50,000 b/d due to reports of economic run cuts in Europe and elsewhere. In September, Italy’s 300,000 b/d Sarroch refinery, along with Mediterranean refiners Eni and Repsol, were reported to be trimming run rates by up to 10%, as stalling margins made heavy production volumes less attractive.

Rebound Prospects in the OECD

However, crude runs in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are expected to rebound in December following the end of seasonal maintenance, the IEA said. A host of refineries in Europe, including Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and the UK, were undergoing scheduled turnarounds expected to be completed in November, according to Commodity Insights data.

QatarEnergy obtained a 35% stake in the Nzombo block, located in deep waters off Congo, under a production sharing contract signed with the Congolese government.
Phillips 66 acquires Cenovus Energy’s remaining 50% in WRB Refining, strengthening its US market position with two major sites totalling 495,000 barrels per day.
Nigeria’s two main oil unions have halted loadings at the Dangote refinery, contesting the rollout of a private logistics fleet that could reshape the sector’s balance.
Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd. enters Gabonese offshore with a strategic contract on the Ngulu block, expanding its portfolio with immediate production potential and long-term development opportunities.
BW Energy has finalised a $365mn financing for the conversion of the Maromba FPSO offshore Brazil and signed a short-term lease for a drilling rig with Minsheng Financial Leasing.
Vantage Drilling has finalised a major commercial agreement for the deployment of the Platinum Explorer, with a 260-day offshore mission starting in Q1 2026.
Permex Petroleum has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Chisos Ltd. for potential funding of up to $25mn to develop its oil assets in the Permian Basin.
OPEC+ begins a new phase of gradual production increases, starting to lift 1.65 million barrels/day of voluntary cuts after the early conclusion of a 2.2 million barrels/day phaseout.
Imperial Petroleum expanded its fleet to 19 vessels in the second quarter of 2025, while reporting a decline in revenue due to lower rates in the maritime oil market.
Eight OPEC+ members will meet to adjust their quotas as forecasts point to a global surplus of 3 million barrels per day by year-end.
Greek shipping companies are gradually withdrawing from transporting Russian crude as the European Union tightens compliance conditions on price caps.
A key station on the Stalnoy Kon pipeline, essential for transporting petroleum products between Belarus and Russia, was targeted in a drone strike carried out by Ukrainian forces in Bryansk Oblast.
SOMO is negotiating with ExxonMobil to secure storage and refining access in Singapore, aiming to strengthen Iraq’s position in expanding Asian markets.
The European Union’s new import standard forces the United Kingdom to make major adjustments to its oil and gas exports, impacting competitiveness and trade flows between the two markets.
The United Kingdom is set to replace the Energy Profits Levy with a new fiscal mechanism, caught between fairness and simplicity, as the British Continental Shelf continues to decline.
The Italian government is demanding assurances on fuel supply security before approving the sale of Italiana Petroli to Azerbaijan's state-owned energy group SOCAR, as negotiations continue.
The Dangote complex has halted its main gasoline unit for an estimated two to three months, disrupting its initial exports to the United States.
Rosneft Germany announces the resumption of oil deliveries to the PCK refinery, following repairs to the Druzhba pipeline hit by a drone strike in Russia that disrupted Kazakh supply.
CNOOC has launched production at the Wenchang 16-2 field in the South China Sea, supported by 15 development wells and targeting a plateau of 11,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2027.
Viridien and TGS have started a new 3D multi-client seismic survey in Brazil’s Barreirinhas Basin, an offshore zone still unexplored but viewed as strategic for oil exploration.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.