The International Energy Agency (IEA) now expects a surplus of 3.84 million barrels per day in 2026, down from the previously estimated 4.09 million. This revision reflects a downward adjustment to global supply projections, impacted by sanctions against Russia and Venezuela, alongside renewed economic optimism supporting consumption.
Global oil demand is projected to grow by 860,000 barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 90,000 barrels from earlier estimates. For 2025, the expected rise stands at 830,000 barrels per day. According to the agency, this trend is driven by falling oil prices and a weakening US dollar, both at near four-year lows, which favour energy imports in emerging markets.
Sanctions and limited capacity weigh on supply
The IEA has lowered its supply growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 2.4 million barrels per day, down from 2.5 million. This adjustment mainly concerns producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+), affected by Western economic sanctions. Global output fell by 610,000 barrels per day in November, due to declining volumes from Russia and Venezuela.
Russian export revenues dropped to their lowest level in November since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At the same time, the European Union reinforced its restrictions on refined products derived from Russian crude, increasing pressure on fuel markets.
Parallel markets of abundant crude and tight fuels persist
The IEA notes the continuation of a structural imbalance between abundant crude oil and tight refined fuel markets. This situation is attributed to limited refining capacity outside China and the impact of new EU measures. Markets are expected to remain divided between raw material availability and constrained access to finished products.
For non-OPEC+ producers, supply forecasts remain unchanged, supported by higher expected output in the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. These countries continue to drive global non-alliance supply growth.
According to the agency, improved economic sentiment, driven by a series of US trade agreements, is helping to restore consumption after a period of tariff-related tensions.
