Hydrogen Market Growth: Forecasts and Challenges

Hydrogen production will reach 204 billion USD by 2031, driven by industrial demand and government clean energy initiatives. However, storage and distribution challenges are holding back this growing market.

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Hydrogen production will reach 204 billion USD by 2031, driven by industrial demand and government clean energy initiatives.
However, storage and distribution challenges are holding back this growing market.

Context and State of the Hydrogen Market

Hydrogen production relies on a variety of sources, including fossil fuels, water, nuclear power, solar energy and biomass.
Processes used include electrolysis, thermochemical reactions, biological methods and pressure swing adsorption.
Each hydrogen production method is color-coded: gray, green and blue, depending on the chemical reactions employed.
These types of hydrogen find diverse applications in the e-mobility, chemical production, power generation and manufacturing industries.

Growth drivers and market challenges

The growth of the hydrogen generation market is mainly driven by increasing demand in the chemical industry and government initiatives to accelerate the transition to clean energy sources.
However, the high cost of storing hydrogen is a major obstacle.
On the other hand, the development of green hydrogen production technologies and the increasing use of hydrogen in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are opening up new opportunities for market players.
Securing the transport and storage of hydrogen remains a major challenge for the industry.

Market Segments and Forecasts

By 2024, the grey hydrogen segment is expected to account for around 87% of the hydrogen generation market.
However, green hydrogen is expected to experience the highest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the forecast period.
This growth is fuelled by the need to reduce the cost of renewable energy production, the development of electrolysis technologies and strong demand for green hydrogen in FCEV and power generation applications.
In terms of processes, hydrogen generation processes are expected to account for around 80% of the market by 2024.
This dominance is attributed to the growing demand for hydrogen in industrial applications and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen generation processes.

Hydrogen Sources and Applications

The fossil fuel segment is expected to account for around 60% of the hydrogen generation market in 2024, while the solar energy segment is set to record the highest growth rate.
This growth is driven by increasing demand for green hydrogen in industrial applications and the adoption of low-cost hydrogen production methods.
In terms of applications, ammonia production is expected to account for over 55% of the hydrogen generation market in 2024.
This significant share is due to the growing demand for ammonia as a low-carbon fuel and its increasing use to decarbonize industries.
The e-mobility segment is expected to record the highest growth rate over the forecast period.

Regional outlook

Asia-Pacific is expected to account for over 41% of the hydrogen generation market in 2024, followed by Europe, North America, Latin America and the Middle East & Africa.
This significant market share is mainly attributed to the region’s growing capacity to produce carbon-free hydrogen, Australia’s focus on hydrogen generation using carbon capture and storage technologies, and China’s increasing use of renewable energy, natural gas and coal for hydrogen generation.
The evolution of the hydrogen generation market presents significant opportunities, although challenges remain, particularly in storage and transportation.
The potential of green hydrogen and government initiatives to promote clean energy are key drivers for the future of this market.

The majority-Indigenous-owned Canadian manufacturer HyVera Distributed Energy is introducing an eCat pellet that instantly produces ultra-pure green hydrogen without external electricity and is counting on two pilot plants to simplify industrial supply.
Underground hydrogen storage, essential to support its growth, continues to face significantly higher costs than natural gas storage, along with major technical challenges hindering its competitiveness against conventional energies.
Singapore-based hydrogen specialist Hydrexia seals a protocol with Indonesian gas giant Samator to deploy purification, transport and storage of hydrogen, betting on rapidly growing local demand and export outlets to the Asia-Pacific region.
Cadiz Inc. signs a memorandum of understanding with British company Hoku Energy for a large-scale energy project including green hydrogen, solar power, and digital infrastructure in the Californian desert, projecting annual revenues of up to $10mn.
BP indefinitely halts its blue hydrogen project at the Whiting refinery in Indiana, raising questions about the future of federal funding and the impact on regional plans for a decarbonized hydrogen sector in the United States.
The Polish energy group ORLEN receives a non-repayable grant of €382 million from the National Recovery Plan to finance its renewable and low-emission hydrogen production initiatives.
Georgia Power and Mitsubishi Power announce successful completion of an unprecedented test incorporating 50% hydrogen into an advanced gas turbine, reducing CO2 emissions by 22% compared to natural gas alone.
Neoenergia has begun construction of one of Brazil's first green hydrogen plants, aimed at supplying heavy and light vehicles, with an investment exceeding 30 million Brazilian reais ($5.99mn).
The SA-H2 fund, supported by international partnerships and local institutional backing, mobilises 37 million USD to develop export-oriented green hydrogen from South Africa, with an initial concrete project announced.
Turbotech reports successful combustion testing of a hydrogen turboprop, developed through digital simulation with Ansys, marking an industrial milestone in light aircraft using alternative fuel.
France Hydrogène responds to the Cour des Comptes report published on June 5, criticising an incomplete reading of updated targets and the economic impacts of decarbonised hydrogen development.
The Belfort Commercial Court has opened a judicial reorganisation procedure for McPhy, while a renewed call for tenders for its asset sale is now set to close on 13 June.
Plug Power CFO Paul Middleton acquired 650,000 shares on the market, affirming his support for the long-term strategy of the hydrogen-focused company.
The Canadian government is funding an initiative to support 40 SMEs in British Columbia’s hydrogen sector, aiming to increase foreign investment and expand international market share.
Developer CWP Global has paused its $40 billion AMAN project in Mauritania due to a lack of buyers for green ammonia despite favourable local conditions.
A study reveals that the profitability of African green hydrogen exports to the European Union depends on political support from Europe, despite the abundance of ongoing projects on the continent.
Plug Power expands its partnership with Allied Green through a new 2 GW electrolyzer deal tied to a $5.5bn chemical plant in Uzbekistan.
Stargate Hydrogen launches 140 MW factory in Estonia with modular expansion model amid cautious hydrogen investment climate.
The European Commission is considering legal action over RED III delays, as regulatory uncertainty slows renewable hydrogen projects and Union-wide investment.
The Cour des comptes warns of the gap between France’s hydrogen ambitions and the reality of funding and available industrial capacity.