S'abonner

Green Hydrogen: Drastic Cost Reduction to $2.5/kg by 2030

The decline in green hydrogen production costs could transform heavy industries by 2030, with a projected price of $2.5/kg, driven by technological innovation and scaling.

Share:

Green hydrogen production, often viewed as the key to decarbonizing heavy industries, is set to cross a critical threshold thanks to a significant drop in costs forecasted over the next decade. Currently, the average cost of green hydrogen production (or Levelized Cost of Hydrogen, LCOH) stands between $6 and $7 per kilogram, hindering its widespread adoption.

According to ABI Research, a technology intelligence firm, the average production price is expected to decrease to $2.5 per kilogram by 2030. This pivotal shift results from a combination of factors, including improved electrolyzer efficiency and lower installation costs. The trend will continue, reaching $1.80 per kilogram by 2040 and $1 per kilogram by 2050.

Technological innovations at the heart of the transition

Specialized electrolyzer companies such as ITM Power, Siemens Energy, and Plug Power play a central role in this cost reduction. Their efforts to enhance technological performance and reduce capital expenditure (CAPEX) have led to significant advancements. Meanwhile, actors like Schneider Electric and SunGreen H2 are focusing on lowering operational expenditure (OPEX).

The industrial adoption of green hydrogen also depends on the declining cost of renewable energy, another major component of LCOH. These trends are expected to make green hydrogen increasingly competitive compared to polluting alternatives.

A strategic issue for heavy industries

For sectors such as aviation, steel, shipping, and chemicals, transitioning to green hydrogen is essential to meet carbon neutrality goals. However, cost remains a decisive barrier.

The success of industrial projects will depend on how accurately stakeholders can anticipate future costs and identify opportunities in specific markets. Companies like Shell, Sinopec, and Linde are already positioning themselves as leaders in developing the necessary infrastructure.

Transforming global markets

The scaling up of green hydrogen production promises to disrupt global energy markets. As costs fall, demand in emerging and industrialized economies will rise. Governments and industries will need to collaborate to accelerate the deployment of essential infrastructure.

By the end of the decade, green hydrogen could become a vital resource, not only for reducing greenhouse gas emissions but also for transforming supply chains in critical industries.

  • Populaires ​
MN8 Energy raises $575mn with Natixis CIB to strengthen its US solar debt
Carbon2Nature and Uría Menéndez launch reforestation of 90 hectares in Salamanca
TNB, Petronas and Terengganu Inc launch green hydrogen hub and hybrid solar in Malaysia
Occidental Petroleum reduces production in the Gulf of Mexico in the second quarter
Azule Energy announces major offshore gas discovery in the Angolan Congo Basin
Hynamics UK and Hy24 join forces for £300mn green hydrogen project in Fawley
Hynamics UK and Hy24 have signed an exclusive agreement to develop the Fawley Green Hydrogen project, backed by the UK HAR2 scheme, to supply green hydrogen to ExxonMobil's petrochemical complex.
China: Green Light for First Interprovincial Hydrogen Pipeline
China has approved the construction of a strategic pipeline to transport green hydrogen from Inner Mongolia to Beijing, facilitating supply to industrial zones around the capital and boosting a rapidly expanding energy economy.
The European Commission sets regulatory framework for low-carbon hydrogen
The European Commission introduces a greenhouse gas emissions methodology for low-carbon hydrogen, establishing a long-awaited regulatory framework for the sector and paving the way for new industrial investments.
Lhyfe successfully completes first green hydrogen combustion tests in Spain
French company Lhyfe has carried out its first successful green hydrogen combustion tests in Spain, delivering three tonnes over three weeks to the Valencian ceramic industry, opening a new potential alternative to industrial fossil natural gas.
Envision inaugurates the world’s largest green ammonia plant in China
Envision announces the official commissioning of the world's largest green hydrogen and ammonia plant in China, powered by an autonomous renewable energy system and entirely AI-driven, with exports planned from late 2025.
Sumitomo invests in Independence Hydrogen to accelerate production in the United States
Sumitomo Corporation announces a strategic investment in Independence Hydrogen aimed at developing new decentralized hydrogen production and distribution projects in the United States, targeting industrial, logistics and critical infrastructure sectors.
80 Mile increases its stake in Hydrogen Valley to 49% and signs an agreement with Tecnoparco
80 Mile announces that it has increased its stake in Hydrogen Valley to 49% and signed a memorandum of understanding with Tecnoparco for the supply of 40,000 tonnes of biofuel per year, aiming to reduce palm oil dependency.
Green ammonia: South Africa moves to execution phase of its largest project
The Hive Coega project, South Africa’s most ambitious green ammonia initiative, enters its operational phase with the release of tenders for essential infrastructure, marking a major step forward for the country in renewable energy production.
France: Court Approves Sale of McPhy to John Cockerill Hydrogen
The Belfort commercial court has approved the sale of McPhy to John Cockerill Hydrogen, a €600,000 transaction involving majority retention of staff and an industrial project partially funded by European subsidies.
Fresno joins First Public Hydrogen to develop municipal energy capacities
The City of Fresno becomes the latest member of First Public Hydrogen, the first US public authority dedicated to hydrogen development, thus strengthening its energy infrastructure and municipal bus fleet.
Natural hydrogen: France on the verge of redefining its national and European energy strategy
The official confirmation in June 2025 by the French government regarding the detection of significant natural hydrogen reserves in Lorraine, the Pyrenees, and Aquitaine could represent a major strategic turning point for national and European energy sovereignty. However, the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with its exploitation might slow its large-scale implementation.
Stanwell withdraws from CQ-H2 hydrogen project in Australia, impact on the sector
Stanwell announces the end of its participation in the Central Queensland Hydrogen Project, a major international hydrogen production initiative, raising questions about the sector's outlook in the region.
Lhyfe obtains the first European RFNBO certification for green hydrogen in France
Lhyfe becomes the first French producer to obtain European RFNBO certification, delivering the first batches of certified hydrogen and opening access to new support mechanisms for the industrial sector.
Finland: TES and CPC launch 500 MW e-NG project
Tree Energy Solutions and CPC Finland will produce 125,000 tonnes annually of e-NG at the Finnish port of Rauma, targeting European and international markets with a significant investment.
EU funds €3.5mn cross-border hydrogen infrastructure project
The European Commission grants €3.5mn to support preparatory work for a Franco-German cross-border network aimed at transporting hydrogen between the Grand Est region and Baden-Württemberg starting in 2029.
McPhy Energy faces judicial liquidation after reviewing submitted offers
French company McPhy Energy awaits a court decision regarding offers submitted during its judicial reorganization, paving the way for probable liquidation and potential delisting of its shares.
HyVera launches hydrogen on demand and plans two production sites
The majority-Indigenous-owned Canadian manufacturer HyVera Distributed Energy is introducing an eCat pellet that instantly produces ultra-pure green hydrogen without external electricity and is counting on two pilot plants to simplify industrial supply.
Underground Hydrogen Storage: High Costs and Technical Challenges Hamper Growth
Underground hydrogen storage, essential to support its growth, continues to face significantly higher costs than natural gas storage, along with major technical challenges hindering its competitiveness against conventional energies.
Hydrexia and Samator join forces for the Indonesian hydrogen market
Singapore-based hydrogen specialist Hydrexia seals a protocol with Indonesian gas giant Samator to deploy purification, transport and storage of hydrogen, betting on rapidly growing local demand and export outlets to the Asia-Pacific region.
Cadiz signs with Hoku Energy and targets $10mn annual revenues in California
Cadiz Inc. signs a memorandum of understanding with British company Hoku Energy for a large-scale energy project including green hydrogen, solar power, and digital infrastructure in the Californian desert, projecting annual revenues of up to $10mn.

LEGAL

FOSSILS

POLICY

RENEWABLE

PLUS

© XMARKET PUBLISHING