Global wind sector targets 2 TW installed capacity by 2030 despite uncertainties

Driven by China's acceleration, global wind capacity is expected to reach 170 GW in 2025, paving the way for a doubling of installed capacity by 2032.

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The global wind market is on track to reach a historic milestone with 170 GW of new capacity expected in 2025, marking an unprecedented record for the sector. This momentum is projected to add a second terawatt (TW) by 2030, only seven years after reaching the first in 2023, compared to the twenty-three years needed for the previous threshold.

China concentrates the majority of global growth

The main driver behind this expansion remains the People’s Republic of China, where onshore wind is accelerating steadily, supported by data centre demand and electrification needs. China’s market alone weighs heavily on global forecasts, representing the majority of new installations and boosting the sector’s overall performance.

According to recent projections, global wind capacity is expected to double from 2024 levels by 2032. Excluding China, the one-terawatt milestone would be reached in 2031, with global capacity doubling by 2034. Nevertheless, analysts point to strong regulatory instability across several countries, notably the United States, which is slowing the market’s momentum.

The United States enters a phase of adjustment

The adoption of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025 is reshaping the American wind market. The planned end of tax credits in 2027 is prompting developers to accelerate projects, leading to a short-term spike in activity. However, this momentum is expected to ease, and the United States may fall behind India and Germany in ten-year capacity additions.

This environment is forcing companies to reassess project profitability based on fundamental parameters such as electricity demand growth and competition between technologies. The ongoing restructuring could permanently alter the global wind market hierarchy.

Onshore wind remains stable while offshore faces headwinds

Outside the United States and China, the wind market shows signs of resilience. Onshore projects are progressing in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region and several emerging markets, supported by regular tenders and robust order books. However, the slowdown in green hydrogen-related projects is weighing on overall development prospects.

The offshore segment is facing a difficult phase. Repeated tender failures and rising costs are hindering progress. In China, maritime use conflicts are blocking certain projects already under construction. In Europe, governments are under increasing pressure to adapt contract terms and maintain the sector’s appeal.

The Australian government has granted environmental approval for the 108 MW Waddi Wind Farm, a Tilt Renewables project with construction costs exceeding $400mn.
The 180 MW Nimbus wind project enters its final phase of construction in Arkansas, with commercial operation scheduled for early 2026.
Faced with market uncertainty in Europe, Siemens Gamesa pauses a planned industrial investment in Esbjerg, highlighting structural difficulties in the offshore wind sector.
Institutional deadlock in France delays tenders and weakens the offshore wind sector, triggering job cuts and major industrial withdrawals from the market.
The Lithuanian energy group has signed a EUR 318 million financing agreement for its 314 MW wind project, the largest in the Baltic states.
German group BayWa r.e. has tasked Enercoop Bretagne with implementing a citizen investment scheme for its planned wind farm in Plouisy, aiming for shared governance and stronger local involvement.
US wind capacity fell in Q2, but developers anticipate a sharp increase by late 2025, with 46 GW of new capacity forecast by 2029 and a peak in 2027.
Engie has signed a renewable electricity supply contract with Apple covering 173 MW of installed capacity in Italy, with commissioning scheduled between 2026 and 2027.
Renova a soumis une méthodologie d’évaluation environnementale pour un projet éolien terrestre de 280MW à Higashidori, renforçant son positionnement sur les technologies renouvelables au Japon.
The joint venture between BP and JERA ends its offshore wind ambitions in the United States, citing an unfavourable economic and regulatory environment for continuing the development of the Beacon Wind project.
With a 300 MW partnership signed with Nadara, Q ENERGY exceeds 1 GW of wind repowering projects in France, reinforcing its position in a market driven by public investment dynamics.
The acquisition of Cosmic Group by FairWind consolidates its position in Australia and marks a strategic expansion into New Zealand and Japan.
Danish manufacturer Vestas has paused construction of its planned facility in Poland, originally set for 2026, citing weaker-than-expected European offshore wind demand.
British operator Equitix has been selected to take over transmission assets of the Neart na Gaoithe offshore wind farm, a £450mn ($547mn) project awarded under Ofgem’s tenth tender round.
Energiequelle GmbH has launched replacement work for old turbines at its Minden-Hahlen site, aiming for long-term structural maintenance with the installation of three new 200-metre machines.
GE Vernova will equip the Ialomiţa wind farm with 42 turbines of 6.1 MW, strengthening its presence in the European onshore wind sector with a 252 MW project in partnership with Greenvolt.
Eversource Energy posts a one-time $75mn charge linked to unforeseen costs in the Revolution Wind project, while tightening its 2025 earnings forecast.
The Renewables Infrastructure Group has signed a ten-year power purchase agreement with Virgin Media O2 for its onshore wind farms in the United Kingdom, ensuring price stability for both parties.
Eight local associations in Normandy and Hauts-de-France will receive a total of €120,000, financed by revenues from three RWE wind farms, to support public-impact projects in 2025.
CWP Europe formalised two major projects in Albania and Montenegro with backing from the European Commission, reinforcing the Balkans’ integration into the European energy market.

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