After reaching a five-year low in 2023, hydroelectricity will experience a significant revival in 2024. This resurgence is due to an increase in precipitation and snowmelt in key production regions. In 2023, global hydropower production amounted to 4,240 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), down from the record 4,359 billion kWh in 2020, but an improvement on 2022. This decrease has led to increased use of coal- and gas-fired power plants. The outlook for 2024 is encouraging. China, for example, saw its hydropower production increase by 57 billion kWh (16%) in the first five months of the year compared with 2023, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Abundant rainfall and frequent flooding in the southern and central regions enabled maximum use to be made of the new turbines installed. Other regions, such as Brazil, also set records with 206 billion kWh generated in the first five months of 2024, surpassing the previous record of 199 billion kWh.
Fossil fuel reduction
The rebound in hydropower has major implications for fossil fuel consumption. In China, the main substitute for hydroelectricity is coal, while in Brazil and the United States it is natural gas. Increased hydroelectric production could therefore significantly reduce the use of these fossil fuels. In the United States, hydroelectric production should increase by 6% in 2024, according to government forecasts.
Overall impact and future prospects
If this rebound in hydropower is significant enough, and is accompanied by continued deployment of wind and solar farms, it could mark a turning point in global coal consumption and fossil fuel emissions. By May 2024, China had already installed 423 million kilowatts (kW) of hydroelectric generating capacity, compared with 370 million kW in 2020, offering considerable potential for increased production if river volumes are sufficient. Water reserves in Brazil’s dams were also at high levels, with 101 billion kWh of generating capacity stored at the end of June. Although down on the previous year, this is the highest level since 2012. This trend could result in a significant reduction in dependence on fossil fuels. The return of hydropower in 2024 represents a major opportunity to adjust global energy dynamics. This revival, combined with the continuing increase in wind and solar capacity, could influence energy markets and long-term supply strategies.
