Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels are expected to set a new record in 2024, reaching 37.4 billion metric tons, up 0.8% compared to 2023. These figures, from the latest report by the Global Carbon Budget project, highlight a persistent upward trend despite the growing adoption of renewable energy sources.
Experts gathered at the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) say this increase reflects the continued rise in natural gas and oil consumption, while coal emissions show more marginal growth. The report also emphasizes that the emissions growth delays the potential peak, an essential milestone for mitigating climate change.
Growth Driven by Gas and Oil
Natural gas emissions are projected to increase by 2.4% in 2024, accounting for 21% of global fossil fuel emissions. Oil emissions are expected to grow by 0.9%, while coal, despite a modest 0.2% rise, remains the largest contributor at 41% of total emissions.
Meanwhile, the international aviation and shipping sectors are anticipated to see a notable 7.8% increase in emissions in 2024, though they remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Stagnation in Global Emissions
When including land-use changes, total global CO2 emissions appear to have plateaued at around 41.6 billion metric tons over the past decade. However, this stagnation falls short of the substantial reductions required to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
The report highlights the contrast between commitments made at previous conferences, notably COP28 in Dubai, and current policies. While progress in renewable energy is evident, it has not been sufficient to reverse the upward trend in fossil fuel emissions.
Contradictory Views on Emission Peaks
The Global Carbon Budget projections differ from the optimistic forecasts of some companies and analysts. For instance, consultancy DNV estimates that global emissions will peak in 2024, driven by accelerated growth in five key technologies: solar photovoltaic, wind energy, nuclear power, heat pumps, and electric vehicles.
Similarly, S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates a potential peak in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the mid-2020s. Their baseline scenario projects a gradual decline in emissions, from 50 billion metric tons in 2025 to approximately 30 billion metric tons by 2050. However, these forecasts depend on overcoming political and technical challenges that hinder many nations from meeting their climate targets.
