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Global coal demand to peak before gradual decline by 2030

Global coal demand is expected to stabilise by the end of the decade as growing competition from other power sources begins to weigh on the market’s long-term outlook.

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Global coal demand is expected to decline slightly by 2030, according to the latest forecasts, after reaching a new record of 8.85 billion tonnes in 2025. This plateau is explained by intensifying competition from renewable energy, liquefied natural gas and nuclear, particularly in the power generation sector, which currently accounts for two-thirds of global coal consumption.

Contrasting regional dynamics in 2025

The year 2025 was marked by atypical developments in several major markets. In India, an early and intense monsoon season led to an unusual drop in annual coal consumption, a phenomenon observed only for the third time in fifty years. In the United States, higher natural gas prices and a slowdown in coal plant closures reversed a 15-year downward trend. In the European Union, following two years of steep contraction, demand declined more moderately. In China, the world’s largest consumer, coal use remained stable compared to 2024.

China remains the key driver of global trends

By 2030, global coal demand is expected to return to 2023 levels. This evolution is mainly linked to shifts in the electricity mix, with renewable energy capacity rising and nuclear continuing to expand. In China, demand could fall slightly as renewable capacity increases and the government targets a peak in domestic coal consumption by 2030.

Diverging outlooks for India and Southeast Asia

India is expected to see the largest absolute increase in coal consumption by 2030, with an average annual rise of 3%, representing over 200 million additional tonnes. The fastest growth is forecast in Southeast Asia, where demand is expected to grow by more than 4% per year. Industrial demand, particularly for steel production, is also supporting imports of metallurgical coal, especially in India.

Production set to fall in most major coal-producing countries

Globally, declining demand, coupled with high stock levels and low prices, is putting pressure on producers’ margins. Coal production is expected to fall in several key producing countries, including China and Indonesia. India may be an exception, as authorities aim to boost domestic output to reduce reliance on imports.

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