SUBSCRIBE
PROFILE

GenZero Report: Three scenarios for the future of carbon markets

The GenZero report proposes various scenarios for the future of carbon markets, ranging from total cooperation to complete fragmentation.

Share:

Rapport GenZero marchés carbone

Subscribe for unlimited access to all energy sector news.

Over 150 multisector articles and analyses every week.

Your 1st year at 99 $*

then 199 $/year

SUBSCRIBE — 99 $ for the 1st year

Create a free account to read this article

*renews at 199$/year, cancel anytime before renewal.

GenZero’s report describes three scenarios for the future of carbon markets: Climate Theocracy, Climate Diplomacy and Climate Autonomy. Each presents a different form of cooperation and fragmentation between nations regarding carbon market standards.

Climate diplomacy and climate autonomy

In the Climate Diplomacy scenario, ideological differences persist, but countries manage to establish common principles for the carbon market. “By the end of the 2030s, there is harmonization on quality principles between Western buyers and Eastern project developers,” reports GenZero. Climate Autonomy, on the other hand, would see highly fragmented markets, with each country treating carbon credits as national assets.

Economic implications and cross-border projects

National tensions in the Autonomy scenario could hamper cross-border carbon credit trading and project investment. However, there will always be a desire to use the carbon market as a neutral platform for certain bilateral collaborations.

Quality standards and conservation projects

In Climate Theocracy’s optimistic scenario, carbon market standards could be harmonized around a high level of quality by the early 2030s. This focus could, however, divert funding away from large-scale projects such as avoided deforestation, towards direct carbon removal projects.

The role of rating agencies

Frederick Teo, CEO of GenZero, discussed the notion of “permanence” in emissions reduction projects, a controversial topic that influences the favorability of certain nature-based projects. He also suggested that carbon markets could draw inspiration from the diamond market to establish mechanisms for comparison and fungibility.

GenZero’s report highlights the complexity and strategic importance of carbon markets in the current context of climate change and geopolitics. Decisions taken today will shape the viability and efficiency of these markets for decades to come.

  • Popular on energynews.pro
India diversifies coking coal purchases, Australia retreats
Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies launch the first subsea CO2 injection in Norway
Quebec allocates $1.5M to meet the demand for wind turbine technicians
Guidehouse forecasts $8.1 billion revenues for modular reactors by 2034
AMIGO LNG signs 15-year deal with Macquarie for 0.6 MTPA of LNG
Return of IAEA inspectors to Iran after one month of diplomatic breakdown
Iran once again authorises the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its nuclear sites, following a suspension triggered by a dispute over responsibility for Israeli strikes.
Ukrainian Arrested in Italy Refuses Extradition for Nord Stream Sabotage
First suspect linked to the Nord Stream pipeline explosions, a Ukrainian citizen challenged by Berlin opposes his judicial transfer from Italy.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian energy sites and reignite tensions
Ukrainian drones targeted a nuclear power plant and a Russian oil terminal, increasing pressure on diplomatic talks as Moscow and Kyiv accuse each other of blocking any prospect of negotiation.
Ukrainian Arrested in Italy for Alleged Role in Nord Stream Sabotage
A Ukrainian national suspected of coordinating the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage has been apprehended in Italy, reigniting a judicial case with significant geopolitical implications across Europe.
Russia and India strengthen energy trade despite US pressure
Russia continues hydrocarbon deliveries to India and explores new outlets for liquefied natural gas, amid escalating trade tensions with the United States.
Russian Strikes Threaten Gas Cooperation Between Azerbaijan and Ukraine
Azerbaijani energy infrastructure targeted in Ukraine raises concerns over the security of gas flows between Baku and Kyiv, just as a new supply agreement has been signed.
Iran cuts 1.4 GW to Iraq, Baghdad speeds up regional interconnections
The suspension of 1,400 MW of electricity supplied by Iran to Iraq puts pressure on the Iraqi grid, while Tehran records a record 77 GW demand and must balance domestic consumption with regional obligations.
China rejects European threat to reinstate sanctions against Iran
Beijing opposes the possible return of European trio sanctions against Iran, as the nuclear deal deadline approaches and diplomatic tensions rise around Tehran.
Washington strengthens ties with Pakistan over minerals and hydrocarbons
The United States plans to collaborate with Pakistan on critical minerals and hydrocarbons, exploring joint ventures and projects in strategic areas such as Balochistan.
Russia gains adoption of oil and gas standards in Africa and the Middle East
Around 80 Russian technical standards for oil and gas have been internationally validated, notably by the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Oman, according to the Institute of Oil and Gas Technological Initiatives.
Iraq and Syria Revive Kirkuk-Baniyas Pipeline to Bypass Traditional Routes
Baghdad and Damascus intensify discussions to reactivate the 850 km pipeline closed since 2003, offering a Mediterranean alternative amid regional tensions and export blockages.
Armenia and Azerbaijan Sign TRIPP Corridor Agreement Under American Auspices
The two countries end 37 years of conflict with a 43-kilometer corridor under American control for 99 years. The infrastructure will transport 50 million tons of goods annually by 2030.
IAEA Dispatches Envoy to Tehran to Negotiate New Nuclear Framework
A senior official from the UN agency begins technical discussions with Iran on Monday, the first meeting since June strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Indonesia finalises free trade agreement with Eurasian Economic Union for December
A free trade agreement between Indonesia and the Eurasian Economic Union is set to be signed in December, aiming to reduce tariffs on $3 bn worth of trade and boost bilateral commerce in the coming years.
India sends top adviser to Moscow as US steps up pressure on Russian oil imports
The visit of India's national security adviser to Moscow comes as the United States threatens to raise tariffs on New Delhi due to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
EU suspends 93 billion euros in tariffs against Washington
Brussels freezes its retaliatory measures for six months as July 27 deal imposes 15% duties on European exports.
Iran and Iraq struggle to finalize gas agreement despite advanced negotiations
Discussions between Tehran and Baghdad on export volumes and an $11 billion debt reveal the complexities of energy dependence under U.S. sanctions.
India navigates between US sanctions and Russian oil dependence
Facing US secondary sanctions threats, Indian refiners slow Russian crude purchases while exploring costly alternatives, revealing complex energy security challenges.
US-Brazil trade war opens pathway for China and Europe in Latin America
The 50% tariffs push Brasília toward accelerated commercial integration with Beijing and Brussels, reshaping regional economic balances.
Trump hits Brazil with 50% tariffs but spares oil and iron
Washington imposes massive duties citing Bolsonaro prosecution while exempting strategic sectors vital to US industry.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.

or

Go unlimited with our annual offer: $99 for the 1styear year, then $ 199/year.

SUBSCRIBE - €99