Electricity transmission system operator RTE warned on Friday that there was now a “high” risk of tensions on the French power grid in January, due to the slower-than-expected restart of EDF nuclear reactors.
The risk of recourse to the Ecowatt system, and in particular to the red alert signal, appears to be “high in January but will depend largely on weather conditions and the possible occurrence of even a moderate cold snap”, according to the monthly update of the “outlook for the electricity system published” by RTE.
To put it plainly: the risk that RTE will call on the French to reduce their electricity consumption in January, on pain of power cuts, has increased.
“January now concentrates more risk” than in its previous analysis, RTE writes.
For the time being, the decrease in electricity consumption, observed for several weeks (-6.6% over 4 weeks compared to the average from 2014 to 2019), “reduces the risk on the security of supply” electricity for the winter.
But uncertainties remain due to a record unavailability of EDF’s nuclear fleet this winter. With nearly half of its 56 reactors shut down for scheduled maintenance or for known or suspected corrosion problems, nuclear electricity production is expected to reach an all-time low this year, between 275 and 285 terawatt hours (TWh).
Normal or cold winter?
Thus, according to the “most likely scenario”, only about 40 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power should be available at the beginning of January, according to RTE’s forecast, i.e. about 65% of the installed nuclear capacity.
The prospect of reaching 45 GW as initially planned on September 14 by RTE in the presentation of its winter scenario, now appears “unlikely” but “not impossible” according to Thomas Veyrencq, executive director in charge of strategy, foresight and evaluation of RTE, during an online press briefing.
EDF, for its part, foresees in its official calendar an availability of 48 GW on January 1st, according to the analysis of AFP.
“We have noted a small but real deviation from our central scenario, a delay of around two weeks”, on the forecast availability of the nuclear fleet, a deviation that could be “more significant” in January, according to RTE.
The reasons: the “social movements” in September and October, which put a stop to the work as well as “delays and technical hazards” in the current maintenance. However, this situation is not related to the work planned to solve the problems of stress corrosion in 16 reactors considered “sensitive or highly sensitive” to this phenomenon.
Until then, the probability of activation of the Ecowatt red signal, which warns of possible targeted power cuts by sending an alert, appears “unlikely” for the end of November, and “medium” for the beginning of December. The other Ecowatt signals are green and orange.
“The level of quantitative risk is unchanged over the whole winter. But it will be distributed a little differently: less risk in December, more in January, less at the end of February and March. But quantitatively over the winter it is the same risk and therefore the number of expected red Ecowatt days is not modified compared to what we published in September,” explained Thomas Veyrencq.
In a normal winter, the number of activations of the red Ecowatt signal is estimated at 0 to 2, and 0 to 5 in a cold winter, RTE said.
