Falling oil prices: OPEC+ struggles to reverse the trend

Brent crude oil prices hit their lowest level since March 2023. OPEC+ postpones production increases, but the market remains skeptical in the face of flagging demand.

Partagez:

Oil prices continue to fall, putting Opep+ and its production strategies in difficulty.
On Friday, Brent crude reached $71.06 a barrel, its lowest level since March 2023.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $67.67.
This drop comes against a backdrop of persistently weak demand, despite OPEC+ maintaining its production cuts.

Market faced with weakening demand

OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, recently postponed the production increase originally scheduled for October.
This strategic change, which was supposed to support prices, did not reassure the markets.
Oil demand remains under pressure, partly due to unfavorable economic signals in China and the United States, two of the world’s biggest oil consumers.
China is showing signs of a slower-than-expected economic recovery, while the United States is suffering the effects of high interest rates and a slowing job market.

Opec+ strategies called into question

Despite these production adjustments, the market seems to doubt the effectiveness of Opep+’s actions in stabilizing prices.
Analysts point out that the organization can only influence supply, while the current weakness is mainly due to weaker-than-expected demand.
Some Opep+ members have already expressed differences over the production policy to be adopted.
In addition, the possibility of extending the postponement of the November production increase is increasingly being discussed.

Increased competition on the oil market

The challenges don’t stop there for Opep+.
In addition to managing market expectations, the organization faces growing competition from new producers such as the USA, Brazil and Guyana.
These countries are gradually increasing their market share, reducing the impact of Opep+ decisions on the overall balance of supply and demand.
Analysts predict that Opep+ may have to revise its production targets to avoid further loss of market share.

Outlook for Opec+ and oil markets

The short-term outlook for the oil market remains uncertain.
Recent moves by Opep+ indicate that the organization may be ready to take tougher measures to control supply, if necessary.
However, with global demand remaining weak and external players continuing to grow, Opep+ will have to strike a delicate balance to avoid disrupting the market too much while trying to support prices.

Faced with recurrent shortages, Zambia is reorganising its fuel supply chain, notably issuing licences for operating new tanker trucks and service stations to enhance national energy security and reduce external dependence.
The closure of the Grangemouth refinery has triggered a record increase in UK oil inventories, highlighting growing dependence on imports and an expanding deficit in domestic refining capacity.
Mexco Energy Corporation reports an annual net profit of $1.71mn, up 27%, driven by increased hydrocarbon production despite persistently weak natural gas prices in the Permian Basin.
S&P Global Ratings lowers Ecopetrol's global rating to BB following Colombia's sovereign downgrade, while Moody’s Investors Service confirms the group's Ba1 rating with a stable outlook.
Shell group publicly clarifies it is neither considering discussions nor approaches for a potential takeover of its British rival BP, putting an end to recent media speculation about a possible merger between the two oil giants.
The anticipated increase in the tax deduction rate may encourage independent refineries in Shandong to restart fuel oil imports, compensating for limited crude oil import quotas.
Petro-Victory Energy Corp. starts drilling of the AND-5 well in the Potiguar Basin, Brazil, as the first phase of an operation financed through its strategic partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Energia.
The Texan Port of Corpus Christi has completed major widening and deepening work designed to accommodate more supertankers, thus strengthening its strategic position in the US market for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust is offering its interest in Prudhoe Bay, North America’s largest oil field, as part of its planned dissolution, assisted by RedOaks Energy Advisors for this strategic asset transaction.
CNOOC Limited’s Hong Kong subsidiary and KazMunayGas have concluded a nine-year exploration and production contract covering nine hundred and fifty-eight square kilometres in Kazakhstan, sharing investment and operations equally.
Donald Trump announced that the United States will no longer oppose Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, immediately triggering a drop in global crude oil prices and profoundly reshaping international energy trade partnerships.
Research firm S&P Global Commodity Insights lifts its outlook for the fourth straight year, betting on three point five mn barrels per day from 2025 despite lower prices.
Enbridge plans to expand its infrastructure to increase oil transportation from the American Midwest to the Gulf Coast, anticipating rising exports and addressing current market logistical constraints.
US commercial crude inventories significantly decline by 3.1 million barrels, widely surpassing initial forecasts and immediately pushing international oil prices higher.
The UK could have hydrocarbon reserves twice as large as current official estimates, according to Offshore Energies UK, highlighting the impact of fiscal policies on forecasts and the economic future of the North Sea.
Following US strikes in Iran, international energy companies partially evacuate their teams from Iraq as a precaution, while Lukoil maintains its entire personnel on southern oilfields.
Chinese independent refineries remain cautious amid rising Iranian crude prices driven by escalating Iran-Israel tensions, potentially threatening access to the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Gazprom, affected by a historic $6.9bn loss in 2023, is offering Pakistani state-owned firm OGDCL its petroleum assets in Nigeria to strengthen its presence in Asia’s energy market, according to Pakistani sources.
Donald Trump urges control of oil prices following U.S. military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, amid escalating tensions around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, threatening to significantly impact global markets.
PermRock Royalty Trust announces a monthly distribution of $539,693 to unit holders, impacted by reduced oil volumes and prices in April, partly offset by increased natural gas sales.