European Natural Gas in 2026: Summer Tensions Despite Growing Global Supply

Despite planned increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacities in the United States and Qatar, European summer 2026 prices reflect supply tensions, while winter promises a more balanced market.

Share:

Comprehensive energy news coverage, updated nonstop

Annual subscription

8.25£/month*

*billed annually at 99£/year for the first year then 149,00£/year ​

Unlimited access • Archives included • Professional invoice

OTHER ACCESS OPTIONS

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2£/month*
then 14.90£ per month thereafter

FREE ACCOUNT

3 articles offered per month

FREE

*Prices are excluding VAT, which may vary depending on your location or professional status

Since 2021: 35,000 articles • 150+ analyses per week

European natural gas prices for summer 2026 remain in backwardation compared to winter 2026, according to Commodity Insights data. This phenomenon, where summer contracts trade at higher prices than winter contracts, reflects uncertainties tied to the summer injection season and the arrival of new LNG production capacity later in the year.

Current Price Status and Market Dynamics

The Dutch TTF summer 2026 contract was assessed at €34.485/MWh on November 25, compared to €34.22/MWh for the winter contract. This difference of €0.265/MWh highlights a rare and pronounced trend compared to the contango structure observed last year.

This dynamic stems from delays in the development of new LNG liquefaction capacity. While these facilities are expected to start operations by winter 2026, additional volumes will primarily arrive in 2027, fueling short-term price volatility.

Capacity Growth in the United States and Qatar

In 2026, global LNG production is expected to increase to 494 million metric tons, up from approximately 452 million metric tons in 2025. A significant share of this growth will come from the United States and Qatar, currently accounting for 21% and 19% of the global market, respectively.

In the United States, the delayed Golden Pass LNG project is expected to begin exports in Q1 2026, with a more notable impact in Q4. The country’s total capacity is set to grow by 20% between Q3 and Q4. Additionally, projects like Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi will contribute to this growth.

Qatar, on the other hand, plans significant export increases through its North Field East and North Field South expansions. These projects are projected to add 32 million metric tons of annual capacity by 2026 and an additional 16 million metric tons by 2027.

Implications for LNG Shipping

Despite the increased supply, the LNG shipping market remains under pressure. With a rising number of new builds and an oversupply of ships, freight rates have dropped sharply. For example, in the Atlantic Basin, rates for two-stroke ships fell to $15,000/day in November 2025, compared to $197,500/day the previous year.

Experts predict these pressures will persist until 2027, even as new European regulations, such as the Emissions Trading System (ETS), may limit the viability of older ships.

Outlook for the European Market

While European gas prices remain high, the planned capacity increases are expected to gradually ease tensions in global markets. Nevertheless, traders highlight that summer 2026 will continue to face uncertainties, particularly during the injection season, before a rebalancing anticipated for winter.

Spot prices still reflect this volatility. The DES Northwest European Marker for January 2026 was assessed at $14.648/MMBtu on November 25, significantly above $11.128/MMBtu recorded the previous year.

A jihadist attack targeted Palma, a strategic area in northern Mozambique, marking a return of insecurity near TotalEnergies' suspended gas project since 2021.
Fermi America has signed an agreement with Energy Transfer to secure a firm natural gas supply for powering Phase One of its HyperGrid energy campus, dedicated to artificial intelligence, near Amarillo, Texas.
Rockpoint Gas Storage priced its initial public offering at C$22 per share, raising C$704mn ($515mn) through the sale of 32 million shares, with an over-allotment option expanding the transaction to 36.8 million shares.
Tailwater Capital secures $600mn in debt and $500mn in equity to recapitalise Producers Midstream II and support infrastructure development in the southern United States.
An economic study reveals that Germany’s gas storage levels could prevent up to €25 billion in economic losses during a winter supply shock.
New Fortress Energy has initiated the initial ignition of its 624 MW CELBA 2 power plant in Brazil, starting the commissioning phase ahead of commercial operations expected later this year.
Talen Energy launches $1.2bn debt financing and expands credit facilities to support strategic acquisitions of two combined-cycle natural gas power plants.
The Ukrainian government is preparing to raise natural gas imports by 30% to offset damage to its energy infrastructure and ensure supply continuity during the winter season.
Driven by rising electricity demand and grid flexibility needs, natural gas power generation is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.8% through 2030.
Talen Energy secures $1.2bn term financing and increases two credit facilities to support the acquisition of two natural gas power plants with a combined capacity of 2,881 MW.
Tenaz Energy finalised the purchase of stakes in the GEMS project between Dutch and German waters, aiming to boost production to 7,000 boe/d by 2026.
Sembcorp Salalah Power & Water Company has obtained a new 10-year Power and Water Purchase Agreement from Nama Power and Water Procurement Company, ensuring operational continuity until 2037.
Eni North Africa restarts drilling operations on well C1-16/4 off the Libyan coast, suspended since 2020, aiming to complete exploration near the Bahr Es Salam gas field.
GOIL is investing $50mn to expand its LPG storage capacity in response to sustained demand growth and to improve national supply security.
QatarEnergy continues its international expansion by acquiring 27% of the offshore North Cleopatra block from Shell, amid Egypt’s strategic push to revive gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Polish authorities have 40 days to decide on the extradition of a Ukrainian accused of participating in the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea.
The Japanese company has completed the first phase of a tender for five annual cargoes of liquefied natural gas over seven years starting in April 2027, amid a gradual contractual renewal process.
Baker Hughes has secured a contract from Bechtel to provide gas turbines and compressors for the second phase of Sempra Infrastructure’s LNG export project in Texas.
Targa Resources will build a 500,000 barrels-per-day pipeline in the Permian Basin to connect its assets to Mont Belvieu, strengthening its logistics network with commissioning scheduled for the third quarter of 2027.
Brazilian holding J&F Investimentos is in talks to acquire EDF’s Norte Fluminense thermal plant, valued up to BRL2bn ($374 million), as energy-related M&A activity surges across the country.

All the latest energy news, all the time

Annual subscription

8.25£/month*

*billed annually at 99£/year for the first year then 149,00£/year ​

Unlimited access - Archives included - Pro invoice

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2£/month*
then 14.90£ per month thereafter

*Prices shown are exclusive of VAT, which may vary according to your location or professional status.

Since 2021: 30,000 articles - +150 analyses/week.