Elections in Venezuela: The stakes for US sanctions

The Venezuelan opposition joins forces behind Corina Yoris against Maduro, potentially influencing the future of US oil sanctions.

Share:

élections Venezuela sanctions USA

Several Venezuelan opposition parties have chosen Corina Yoris as their candidate to challenge Nicolás Maduro in the July presidential elections. This decision could lead the United States to consider a temporary easing of oil sanctions, already eased in May 2022 and October 2023, with the aim of encouraging a fair electoral process. Rachel Ziemba of Horizon Engage notes that this development, coupled with other partial concessions, could lead to an easing of sanctions, although this requires openness on Maduro’s part.

US sanctions and General License 44

In October, the US issued General License 44, authorizing certain oil and gas transactions, following an agreement in Barbados between Maduro and the opposition for fair presidential elections in 2024. However, the disqualification in January of María Corina Machado, the main opposition candidate, prompted US warnings that sanctions would be reimposed if Maduro did not allow all candidates to compete.

Potential impacts on the energy sector

If General License 44 is maintained, Venezuelan crude production could increase from the current 770,000 b/d to less than 850,000 b/d by 2025, according to Nick Blanco of S&P Global Commodity Insights. On the other hand, cancellation of this license would have a rapid impact on Venezuelan production and trade, potentially redirecting exports to China, the main consumer of Venezuelan crude during the sanctions.

Considerations and consequences of sanctions

Markets are anticipating a partial return to sanctions on April 18. David Goldwyn of the Atlantic Council suggests that the U.S. could design a new license that limits the Maduro regime’s revenues without penalizing the Venezuelan population. The implications of the announcement of Yoris’ candidacy are minimal for actual flows up to April 25, with major impacts expected on US refiners and diluent exporters.

Yoris’ ability to run as a candidate remains uncertain, with Maduro likely to use administrative restrictions to block a popular candidate. The opposition is requesting an extension to the registration deadline due to computer problems, while Maduro has formalized his candidacy for a third six-year term.

BRICS adopt a joint financial framework aimed at supporting emerging economies while criticizing European carbon border tax mechanisms, deemed discriminatory and risky for their strategic trade relations.
The European Commission is launching an alliance with member states and industrial players to secure the supply of critical chemicals, amid growing competition from the United States and China.
Trade between Russia and Saudi Arabia grew by over 60% in 2024 to surpass USD 3.8 billion, according to Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Anton Alikhanov, who outlined new avenues for industrial cooperation.
Meeting in Rio, BRICS nations urge global energy market stability, openly condemning Western sanctions and tariff mechanisms in a tense economic and geopolitical context.
Despite strong ties, Iran's dependence on oil revenues limits its ability to secure substantial strategic support from Russia and China amid current international and regional crises, according to several experts.
Egypt’s Electricity Minister engages in new talks with Envision Group, Windey, LONGi, China Energy, PowerChina, and ToNGWEI to boost local industry and attract investments in renewable energy.
The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz places Gulf producers under intense pressure, highlighting their diplomatic and logistical limitations as a blockage threatens 20 million daily barrels of hydrocarbons destined for global markets.
Budapest and Bratislava jointly reject the European Commission's proposal to ban Russian energy supplies, highlighting significant economic risks and a direct threat to their energy security, days ahead of a key meeting.
Libya officially contests Greece's allocation of offshore oil permits, exacerbating regional tensions over disputed maritime areas south of Crete, rich in hydrocarbons and contested by several Mediterranean states.
Hungary, supported by Slovakia, strongly expresses opposition to the European Commission's plan to phase out imports of Russian energy resources, citing major economic and energy impacts for Central Europe.
Israeli military strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear site destroyed critical electrical infrastructure but did not reach strategic underground facilities, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The French president travels to Nuuk on 15 June to support Greenlandic sovereignty, review energy projects and respond to recent US pressure, according to the Élysée.
Kazakhstan has selected Rosatom and China National Nuclear Corporation to build two nuclear power plants totaling 2.4 GW, a decision following a favorable referendum and coinciding with Xi Jinping’s upcoming strategic visit.
Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear sites disrupt US-Iranian talks on the nuclear deal. Tehran now considers canceling the upcoming negotiation round in Oman, heightening regional economic concerns.
Facing alarming breaches of uranium enrichment thresholds by Iran and explicit existential threats, Israel launches targeted military strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, escalating regional tensions dramatically.
The Kremlin has confirmed that Vladimir Putin aims to help resolve the nuclear dispute between the United States and Iran, leveraging strengthened strategic ties with Tehran.
President Lee Jae-myung adopts an energy diplomacy rooted in national interest, amid a complex international landscape of rivalries that could create challenging situations for the country and its energy businesses.
Paris and Warsaw held a bilateral workshop in Warsaw to strengthen coordination on electricity infrastructure investments and supply security under the Nancy Treaty.
Donald Trump firmly rejects any uranium enrichment by Iran, while Russia affirms Tehran’s right to civil nuclear power, intensifying tensions in negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program.
Syria has signed a $7bn agreement with a consortium of companies from Qatar, Turkey and the United States to rebuild its national power sector.