popular articles

Elections in Venezuela: The stakes for US sanctions

The Venezuelan opposition joins forces behind Corina Yoris against Maduro, potentially influencing the future of US oil sanctions.
élections Venezuela sanctions USA

Please share:

Several Venezuelan opposition parties have chosen Corina Yoris as their candidate to challenge Nicolás Maduro in the July presidential elections. This decision could lead the United States to consider a temporary easing of oil sanctions, already eased in May 2022 and October 2023, with the aim of encouraging a fair electoral process. Rachel Ziemba of Horizon Engage notes that this development, coupled with other partial concessions, could lead to an easing of sanctions, although this requires openness on Maduro’s part.

US sanctions and General License 44

In October, the US issued General License 44, authorizing certain oil and gas transactions, following an agreement in Barbados between Maduro and the opposition for fair presidential elections in 2024. However, the disqualification in January of María Corina Machado, the main opposition candidate, prompted US warnings that sanctions would be reimposed if Maduro did not allow all candidates to compete.

Potential impacts on the energy sector

If General License 44 is maintained, Venezuelan crude production could increase from the current 770,000 b/d to less than 850,000 b/d by 2025, according to Nick Blanco of S&P Global Commodity Insights. On the other hand, cancellation of this license would have a rapid impact on Venezuelan production and trade, potentially redirecting exports to China, the main consumer of Venezuelan crude during the sanctions.

Considerations and consequences of sanctions

Markets are anticipating a partial return to sanctions on April 18. David Goldwyn of the Atlantic Council suggests that the U.S. could design a new license that limits the Maduro regime’s revenues without penalizing the Venezuelan population. The implications of the announcement of Yoris’ candidacy are minimal for actual flows up to April 25, with major impacts expected on US refiners and diluent exporters.

Yoris’ ability to run as a candidate remains uncertain, with Maduro likely to use administrative restrictions to block a popular candidate. The opposition is requesting an extension to the registration deadline due to computer problems, while Maduro has formalized his candidacy for a third six-year term.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Recently published in

Qatar announces technical assistance to restore essential infrastructure in Syria, severely affected by years of conflict. This aid includes an energy contribution as well as support for the electricity sector, which is undergoing restructuring.
Nearly 120 missiles and drones targeted key infrastructures in Ukraine, causing widespread power outages. This attack occurred as Volodymyr Zelensky met with European leaders in Poland.
Nearly 120 missiles and drones targeted key infrastructures in Ukraine, causing widespread power outages. This attack occurred as Volodymyr Zelensky met with European leaders in Poland.
Despite months of negotiations, OECD countries failed to reach an agreement to restrict public support for fossil fuel industries, highlighting key divergences between nations.
Despite months of negotiations, OECD countries failed to reach an agreement to restrict public support for fossil fuel industries, highlighting key divergences between nations.
The pro-Russian separatist leader of Transdniestria, Vadim Krasnosselski, traveled to Moscow to address the energy crisis impacting his region after Russian gas deliveries were cut, jeopardizing the local economy and power grid.
The pro-Russian separatist leader of Transdniestria, Vadim Krasnosselski, traveled to Moscow to address the energy crisis impacting his region after Russian gas deliveries were cut, jeopardizing the local economy and power grid.
Thanks to the extension of the TAL pipeline, the Czech Republic diversifies its energy supply, reducing its dependence on Russian oil while enhancing its strategic security.
Ukrainian drone strikes targeted industrial and energy facilities in Russia, causing significant fires in Tatarstan and Saratov regions, according to local authorities.
Ukrainian drone strikes targeted industrial and energy facilities in Russia, causing significant fires in Tatarstan and Saratov regions, according to local authorities.
The United States is considering a 25% tax on Canadian oil imports, threatening a strategic energy partnership. This measure could disrupt Alberta’s economy and global oil markets.
The United States is considering a 25% tax on Canadian oil imports, threatening a strategic energy partnership. This measure could disrupt Alberta’s economy and global oil markets.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky plan discussions on the partial resumption of Russian gas transit, representing 25% of the volumes needed for Slovakia.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky plan discussions on the partial resumption of Russian gas transit, representing 25% of the volumes needed for Slovakia.
As Nicolás Maduro begins a contested third term and Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, tensions between Washington and Caracas reach a critical point. Between tightened sanctions, strategic alliances, and oil stakes, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for these two nations.
Russia reports that nine Ukrainian drones targeted a TurkStream pipeline station, without disrupting deliveries to Europe. This incident highlights the geopolitical stakes of energy infrastructure.
Russia reports that nine Ukrainian drones targeted a TurkStream pipeline station, without disrupting deliveries to Europe. This incident highlights the geopolitical stakes of energy infrastructure.
Discussions in Geneva between Iran and the E3 group aim to regulate uranium enrichment now reaching 60%, while adhering to international regulatory frameworks.
Discussions in Geneva between Iran and the E3 group aim to regulate uranium enrichment now reaching 60%, while adhering to international regulatory frameworks.
The separatist authorities of Transdniestria, grappling with the halt of Russian gas deliveries, are calling on Moscow for help to prevent a humanitarian crisis exacerbated by power outages and an economy on the brink of collapse.
The separatist authorities of Transdniestria, grappling with the halt of Russian gas deliveries, are calling on Moscow for help to prevent a humanitarian crisis exacerbated by power outages and an economy on the brink of collapse.
Faced with US sanctions targeting Russian oil, Serbia is negotiating with Moscow to ensure the full withdrawal of Russian shares in its main gas supplier, NIS, 56% owned by Gazprom and Gazprom Neft.
A tanker carrying 99,000 tons of oil, stranded in the Baltic Sea, has been secured by German rescue operations. The incident reignites debates over Russia's "ghost fleet" and its environmental implications.
A tanker carrying 99,000 tons of oil, stranded in the Baltic Sea, has been secured by German rescue operations. The incident reignites debates over Russia's "ghost fleet" and its environmental implications.
Washington and London impose historic sanctions on the Russian energy sector, targeting Gazprom Neft and a fleet of 200 ships. Moscow accuses the U.S. of global destabilization, while Biden defends the strategic impact.
Washington and London impose historic sanctions on the Russian energy sector, targeting Gazprom Neft and a fleet of 200 ships. Moscow accuses the U.S. of global destabilization, while Biden defends the strategic impact.
Lithuania strengthens the protection of the LitPol Link, its critical connection with Poland, ahead of its planned disconnection from the Russian power grid in February.
Lithuania strengthens the protection of the LitPol Link, its critical connection with Poland, ahead of its planned disconnection from the Russian power grid in February.
Electric interconnections have reshaped global energy systems, enabling cross-border cooperation and economic stability. Rooted in Oxford Energy Institute research, this piece highlights key agreements, technological milestones, and the diplomatic strategies driving these transformative infrastructures.
Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States, attacks the United Kingdom's energy policies, blaming high taxes in the North Sea for pushing companies like APA Corporation to exit the region by 2029.
Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States, attacks the United Kingdom's energy policies, blaming high taxes in the North Sea for pushing companies like APA Corporation to exit the region by 2029.
Turkey Provides 58 GW of Electricity to Northern Syria in 2024
Turkey Provides 58 GW of Electricity to Northern Syria in 2024
An undersea cable linking Finland and Estonia has been damaged in the Baltic Sea. Suspected of belonging to the Russian "ghost fleet," the tanker Eagle S is at the center of investigations, reinforced by a Swedish naval vessel.
An undersea cable linking Finland and Estonia has been damaged in the Baltic Sea. Suspected of belonging to the Russian "ghost fleet," the tanker Eagle S is at the center of investigations, reinforced by a Swedish naval vessel.
Bulgarian and Hungarian ministers discussed ambitious energy projects aimed at strengthening regional energy security, including two green corridors and initiatives to diversify supply chains.
Recent U.S. strikes in Yemen targeted critical Houthi infrastructure, resulting in the destruction of seven drones and missiles amid heightened tensions over Red Sea maritime routes.
Recent U.S. strikes in Yemen targeted critical Houthi infrastructure, resulting in the destruction of seven drones and missiles amid heightened tensions over Red Sea maritime routes.
The interruption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine affects 14 billion cubic meters annually, triggering major political and economic consequences for Eastern Europe.
The interruption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine affects 14 billion cubic meters annually, triggering major political and economic consequences for Eastern Europe.
Niger accuses Nigeria of involvement in an attack on its pipeline to Benin. This incident highlights growing political and economic tensions in the region.
Niger accuses Nigeria of involvement in an attack on its pipeline to Benin. This incident highlights growing political and economic tensions in the region.

Advertising