In November, the average price of electricity in Estonia was €82.56 per megawatt-hour (€/MWh), recording a 9.6% decrease compared to October. Compared to the previous year, this drop reached 21.5%, mainly due to milder weather and a significant increase in renewable energy production. These favorable conditions allowed a notable reduction in energy costs for consumers.
The hourly distribution of prices revealed significant fluctuations. The highest prices were observed between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m., averaging €127.4/MWh, 54.3% above the monthly average. Conversely, the lowest prices occurred between midnight and 4 a.m., with an average rate of €33.59/MWh, 59.3% below the monthly average. This pattern reflects peak consumption concentrated during daytime hours.
Renewable Production on the Rise
Wind energy production in Estonia saw a sharp increase, reaching 171 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in November, three times more than in November 2023. Although solar production remains marginal at 16.1 GWh, it still doubled compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, shale oil-based production dropped by over 50%, totaling 118 GWh. These shifts mark a transition toward less carbon-intensive energy production in the region.
In November, Estonia’s electricity consumption was primarily met through imports (43.8%), followed by wind energy (23.7%) and shale oil-based electricity (16.4%). Biomass contributed 5.9%, while other sources had minimal impact. Overall, Estonia produced 404.4 GWh of electricity, covering slightly more than half of its consumption.
Regional and European Context
Baltic neighbors Latvia and Lithuania recorded average prices similar to Estonia, at €88.75/MWh and €88.66/MWh, respectively. However, maintenance on the electricity network between Estonia and Latvia temporarily limited transmission capacity, hindering the optimal flow of competitive electricity from Finland.
In Europe, natural gas prices on the Dutch TTF exchange averaged €45.01/MWh in November. However, forecasts indicate a price rise to €48–49/MWh this winter due to lower wind forecasts and increased demand driven by unusually cold weather. Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowances reached €67.51/ton, with expectations of stability at €69/ton by year-end.
Weather-Dependent Outlook
As winter sets in, electricity price trends will heavily depend on weather conditions. Windy conditions could support significant wind energy production, helping curb price increases. Conversely, cold and windless weather would drive up energy consumption and associated costs.
