Russia

Serbian oil company NIS, partially owned by Gazprom, faces newly enforced US sanctions after a nine-month reprieve, testing the country's fuel supply chain.
Russian oil output moved closer to its OPEC+ allocation in September, with a steady rise confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Russia formally exits bilateral nuclear agreement with the United States

The State Duma has approved Russia’s formal withdrawal from a treaty signed with the United States on the elimination of military-grade plutonium, ending over two decades of strategic nuclear cooperation.
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Crude prices rose following the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to increase production only marginally in November, despite ongoing signs of oversupply.
The Ukrainian government is preparing to raise natural gas imports by 30% to offset damage to its energy infrastructure and ensure supply continuity during the winter season.

Belarus quadruples fuel exports to Russia in September

Rail shipments of Belarusian gasoline to Russia surged in September as Moscow sought to offset fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure.
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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said it was not in Poland’s interest to extradite to Germany a Ukrainian citizen suspected of taking part in the explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022.
Denmark is intensifying inspections of ships passing through Skagen, a strategic point linking the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, to counter the risks posed by the Russian shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil.

China opts for quarterly thermal coal contracts with Indonesia for 2026

Chinese buyers begin negotiations for 2026 thermal coal deliveries, favouring shorter contracts to maintain flexibility in a stable price environment.
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A night-time attack on Belgorod’s power grid left thousands without electricity, according to Russian local authorities, despite partial service restoration the following morning.
Opec+ slightly adjusts its quotas for November, continuing its market share recovery strategy amid stagnant global demand and a pressured market.

OPEC+ prepares new production hike amid rift between Riyadh and Moscow

Eight OPEC+ countries are set to increase oil output from November, as Saudi Arabia and Russia debate the scale of the hike amid rising competition for market share.
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Hungary has signed a ten-year agreement with Engie for the annual import of 400 mn m³ of liquefied natural gas starting in 2028, reinforcing its energy diversification strategy despite its ongoing reliance on Russian gas.
The potential removal by Moscow of duties on Chinese gasoline revives export prospects and could tighten regional supply, while Singapore and South Korea remain on the sidelines.

Russian strike cuts power to Chernobyl site, reigniting nuclear safety concerns

The containment structure over Chernobyl’s destroyed reactor lost power after a Russian strike, as Zaporizhzhia remains cut off from external electricity for over a week.
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An unprecedented overnight offensive targeted gas infrastructure in Ukraine, damaging several key facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions, according to Ukrainian authorities.
Vladimir Putin responded to the interception of a tanker suspected of belonging to the Russian shadow fleet, calling the French operation “piracy” and denying any direct Russian involvement.

Macron urges Europe to act against Russian shadow fleet after offshore seizure

France intercepted a tanker linked to Russian exports, prompting Emmanuel Macron to call for a coordinated European response to hinder vessels bypassing oil sanctions.
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After being intercepted by the French navy, the Boracay oil tanker, linked to Russia's shadow fleet, left Saint-Nazaire with its oil cargo, reigniting tensions over Moscow’s circumvention of European sanctions.
Russian seaborne crude shipments surged in September to their highest level since April 2024, despite G7 sanctions and repeated drone strikes on refinery infrastructure.
Natural gas prices are soaring, reaching a record high in the United States and Europe for the past year, driven by weather forecasts for one and geopolitical tensions for the other.
In response to IAEA criticism, Iran has activated new advanced centrifuges, escalating its nuclear program and heightening tensions with Western powers.

Russian refineries face squeezed margins and major logistical challenges

Between low margins, rising taxes, and rail delays, Russian refineries struggle to sustain operations, while modernization projects are hindered by high interest rates and Western sanctions.
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Russia and Iraq strengthen their cooperation within OPEC+ to manage oil price fluctuations. This coordination is crucial for their respective budgets amidst sanctions and heavy reliance on oil revenues.
A dispute between Gazprom and OMV disrupts Europe’s energy balance. Despite stable flows via Ukraine, legal and economic tensions increase the challenges of the European Union’s energy diplomacy.

Trump: a pro-nuclear future under budgetary uncertainties

The Trump administration plans to support nuclear energy and domestic uranium production. However, questions remain about future budgets and priorities amid competing spending demands.
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Hungary proposes a budget increase for its Paks II nuclear project, a strategic initiative funded by Russia but facing technical, economic, and geopolitical challenges.
Following the suspension of Russian gas deliveries to OMV, the Mukran LNG terminal offers exceptional backup capacity to cover Austria’s annual energy demand.

New Russian Offensive: Ukrainian Energy Grid Severely Hit

A massive attack with drones and missiles targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing two deaths and major power outages. Kyiv denounces the intensification of strikes as winter approaches.
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Following a contractual dispute with Gazprom, Austria, which relied on 90% of Russian gas this summer, faces a supply halt. Despite the crisis, the country claims to have secured its energy supply.
Orano temporarily suspends uranium extraction activities in Niger

Al Gore denounces the role of petro-states in organizing COPs

During COP29 in Baku, Al Gore criticized the organization of climate conferences in petro-states and called for a reform of the selection process for host countries and participants, accusing these nations of conflicts of interest.
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North Macedonia strengthens its energy security with an agreement with SOCAR, aiming at the diversification of natural gas supplies and innovative projects like gas cogeneration.
Cuba, hit by two hurricanes and an acute energy crisis, receives enhanced support from Russia, including financial aid, equipment, and an educational partnership to develop its energy sector.

Vietnam Revives Its Nuclear Program to Meet Growing Energy Demand

Vietnam plans to reactivate its nuclear program, halted in 2016, to support rapid industrialization and meet increasing energy demands while aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050.
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G7-linked tankers are returning to Russian routes, reaching a seven-month high as they seize opportunities presented by the weakness of Russian crude prices under the $60/barrel cap.
Niger opens its doors to Russian companies for the exploration of its natural wealth, marking a strategic shift as tensions persist with French companies, particularly over uranium.

Libya and Kazakhstan: Contrasting Production Efforts within the OPEC+ Alliance

OPEC+ recorded an increase of 30,000 barrels per day in October, marked by Libya’s production surge and Kazakhstan’s reduction. Compliance remains a key challenge for the group.
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Despite escalating tensions and the preparation of a Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine continue as usual, according to data from GTSOU.
A sample of radioactive debris from the Fukushima power plant has been secretly transported to a laboratory near Tokyo. This crucial step is part of the lengthy decommissioning process, which is expected to take several more decades.