According to data from the General Administration of Customs, Chinese exports of clean petroleum products climbed 58% on the previous month and 36.9% year-on-year to 4.55 million tonnes in March. This level had not been reached since January 2023, when exports stood at 5.07 million tonnes.
Impact of the maintenance season
Refining sources indicate that April volumes may be limited despite healthy export margins, due to the maintenance season. Exports in March brought total flows of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to 10.16 million tonnes in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year drop of 21.2%.
Applications for new export quotas
Sources at state quota holders told S&P Global Commodity Insights that they have requested new export quotas, expected in late April or early May, of up to 18 million tonnes. These sources add that these new quotas will not immediately impact their export rate, forecasting a total quota for 2024 unchanged from 2023, i.e. around 40 million tonnes.
Lower margins expected in April
In April, gasoline exports from three PetroChina refineries in northeast China fell by 71% on March, to around 71,000 tonnes. Despite this, monthly export margins for RON 92 gasoline rose to $8.35/b on April 17, compared with an average of $7.96/b in March.
High margins for diesel should encourage an increase in the proportion of this product in combined flows to maximize margins. Gasoil exports recorded the strongest monthly growth in March, rising 125.4% to 1.42 million tonnes.
