China, faced with the immense challenge of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, seems at last to be finding a path to a successful energy transition. According to a recent study, the country should see a drop in its CO2 emissions as early as 2024.
Record growth in renewable energies
This is mainly due to the unprecedented expansion of its renewable energy capacity. The study, published by Carbon Brief, a British climate website, points out that Chinese solar installations installed in 2023 doubled the total capacity of the United States.
Energy Impact Compared to France
Lauri Myllyvirta, from the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research, states in his report that the new solar, wind, hydroelectric and nuclear power capacities will generate around 423 terawatt-hours per year. To put this into perspective, it’s equivalent to France’s total electricity consumption.
The Sustainability of Lower Emissions
These ambitious efforts are not without consequences for China’s energy sector. The report points to a probable drop in fossil-fuel-based electricity generation, and a consequent reduction in CO2 emissions. This trend could be set to continue, given that the development of low-emission energies is now outstripping the average annual increase in electricity demand in China.
Renewable energies versus coal
China’s energy transition is based on a solid foundation of official and commercial data. At the same time, however, China continues to expand its coal-fired power generation capacity. This contradiction raises concerns about a possible clash between different interest groups, notably the coal industry and local governments.
Carbon Brief warns against the potential resistance of these players to the energy transition. This resistance could hamper progress and call into question China’s ability to meet its climate targets. This delicate situation calls for skilful management of the various interests at stake. At the same time, Chinese and American climate officials met recently, in preparation for COP28. Although details of the discussions were not divulged, they were described as “constructive”, pointing to possible international collaboration in the fight against climate change.
China is at a turning point in its energy policy, with CO2 emissions set to fall thanks to a boom in renewable energies. However, coexistence with coal development poses a major challenge, requiring balanced management of divergent interests for a successful transition.
