Global crude oil production is forecast to grow by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, according to projections released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). A significant portion of this growth, amounting to 0.4 million b/d, is expected to come from three South American countries: Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. These countries have recently expanded their production capacity, independently of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), whose coordinated supply cuts have so far limited global output increases.
FPSOs at the core of Brazil’s rebound
In Brazil, output reached 4.0 million b/d for the first time in October 2025, supported by the commissioning of new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units. The Bacalhau field, operated by Equinor, marked a milestone as the first project in Brazil led by an international company. After stable production levels in 2024, the country recorded an increase of 0.4 million b/d in 2025, averaging 3.8 million b/d. Two new FPSO units, currently being deployed in the Búzios field operated by Petrobras, are expected to add a further 0.2 million b/d by the end of 2026.
Guyana ramps up exports to Asia
Guyana’s oil production increased ten-fold between 2020 and 2025, reaching an average of 750,000 b/d, mainly due to discoveries in the offshore Stabroek block. This development is led by ExxonMobil, with partners Hess and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). In November 2025, output exceeded 900,000 b/d, driven by the ramp-up of the Yellowtail project. The planned commissioning of the Uaru project in 2026 could add 250,000 b/d, pushing production beyond the one million b/d mark by 2027.
Argentina consolidates gains through Vaca Muerta
After years of decline, Argentina has increased its output thanks to the development of the Vaca Muerta shale formation in the west of the country. It is one of the few sites outside the United States producing significant volumes of oil using hydraulic fracturing. Output reached 740,000 b/d in 2025, with 62% coming from this geological formation between January and October. Forecasts for 2026 point to average production of 810,000 b/d.
The growing role of these three South American producers in the global oil balance reflects the shifting dynamics of supply outside the OPEC+ framework, particularly amid volatile global demand and geopolitical constraints on traditional flows.
