The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) enters its final phase under high tension. Simon Stiell, head of UN Climate, stepped up the pressure on delegates, urging them to overcome tactical stumbling blocks and focus their efforts on the crucial issues: phasing out fossil fuels and providing financial assistance to the poorest countries. The negotiations, hampered by divergent national interests and considerable economic stakes, are at a tipping point between historic progress and diplomatic deadlock.
The Compromise Text: A Diplomatic Sprint
A new draft agreement, eagerly awaited, promises to launch an intense diplomatic sprint. Sultan Al Jaber, Emirati president of COP28 and head of the national oil company, is committed to achieving a “historic” agreement. He sees the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C as his “North Star”. This new agreement, still in gestation, is supposed to reflect a compromise between global aspirations for an energy transition and the economic and political realities of each nation.
Divergent Positions in Participating Countries
The divide between nations is widening. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the leading oil exporters, remain firmly opposed to any reduction or abandonment of fossil fuels, relying on emerging carbon capture technologies. On the other, a consensus is gradually emerging among other countries to signal the beginning of the end of the oil, gas and coal era. The latter are increasingly perceived as relics of a bygone industrial past, incompatible with global climate objectives.
The urgency of the energy transition is palpable. Debates are crystallizing around the need to triple the capacity of renewable energies by 2030, making the reduction of coal and hydrocarbons conditional on the development of clean energies. This represents a considerable ambition, aimed at reshaping the global energy landscape and fostering a gradual transition to more sustainable, less polluting energy sources.
China and the United States: Key Actors of Change
China’s position, initially perceived as reticent, has evolved towards a more constructive approach. At the same time, the United States, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases along with China, is playing a decisive role in shaping the agreement. The Sino-American joint declaration of November, in which the two giants avoided talking about a “phase-out” of fossil fuels but stressed their gradual replacement by renewables, serves as a reference for the current negotiations.
Developing countries at the heart of negotiations
The success of the agreement depends heavily on the commitments made to developing and emerging countries. From nations like India, still heavily dependent on coal, to those most vulnerable to climate change, all are looking for assurances and concrete support to facilitate their energy transition and adapt to changing climatic realities.
COP28 is moving towards an uncertain conclusion, oscillating between hope and challenge. The next few hours will be crucial in determining whether the international community can unite around a more sustainable and equitable energy future, marking a turning point in the fight against climate change.
