The evolution of manufacturing processes is imposing a new hierarchy within the solar energy market. Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact technology (TOPCon 4.0) has established itself as the dominant standard due to its compatibility with existing industrial infrastructure. According to recent analyses by Wood Mackenzie (Wood Mackenzie), the production cost of TOPCon stabilizes at around $0.25 per watt ($/W) in 2026. This competitiveness is directly linked to the ability to convert legacy PERC (Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell) production lines, thereby limiting initial capital expenditures for players such as Jinko Solar (Jinko Solar) and Trinasolar (Trinasolar).
Comparative advantages and financial barriers of HJT
By contrast, Heterojunction Technology (HJT) positions itself in the premium segment, with conversion efficiencies reaching 26% in mass production. However, its manufacturing cost remains 15% to 20% higher than that of TOPCon 4.0, ranging between $0.30/W and $0.35/W according to technical data from TaiyangNews (TaiyangNews). This structural cost premium is explained by higher silver paste consumption and the need to install entirely new production lines. Although HJT offers a superior temperature coefficient, its large-scale adoption remains constrained by a level of capital intensity that many manufacturers cannot absorb in the current context of margin compression.
The profitability of solar assets now depends on annual power degradation and component reliability. TOPCon 4.0 exhibits extremely low degradation rates, with measurements as low as 0.14% per year under certain desert conditions according to exposure tests conducted by Hamad Bin Khalifa University (Hamad Bin Khalifa University, HBKU). For asset managers, the technical choice therefore leans toward TOPCon for utility-scale projects requiring a minimal Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Conversely, HJT is favored for installations in high-temperature geographic zones, where its thermal resilience ensures superior energy yield over twenty-five years.
Standardization prospects and materials innovation
Forecasts from the ITRPV (International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic, ITRPV) suggest a gradual reduction in the price gap between these two architectures by the end of 2026. The introduction of copper metallization as a partial replacement for silver could reduce HJT manufacturing costs by 5% to 10%. In parallel, improvements to TOPCon through Laser Enhanced Contact Optimization (LECO) enable panel power increases of 5 to 10 watts without major cost modifications. This technological convergence is pushing the industry toward standardization, where supplier reliability and bankability become the primary criteria for differentiation.
The global market is gradually reaching saturation, generating deflationary pressure on modules while favoring N-type technologies, which now represent the majority of installed production capacity. Infrastructure developers’ procurement decisions are based on rigorous performance analyses, such as the Optisol testing campaign conducted by Certisolis (Certisolis). The emergence of the Grade A (Grade A) classification confirms that financial solidity is now inseparable from pure innovation. This sectoral shift raises questions about the ability of second-tier manufacturers to finance the transition to these technologies without full vertical integration.
