Colombia could reduce its growing dependence on natural gas imports by 2030 by investing in energy efficiency and the electrification of household uses, according to a new joint study conducted by Transforma and Ember. The country, facing a projected supply deficit of 14,556 Giga British Thermal Units (GBTU) by 2030, would risk increased vulnerability to international gas price fluctuations if no demand reduction measures are implemented.
Growing dependence on imported gas
The report states that the natural gas deficit will reach 3.9% of total demand in 2030 and could increase to 52% by 2039. This trend results from the widening gap between national production and the current import capacity, amid steadily rising domestic demand. According to the study’s authors, a strategy focused solely on increasing supply—whether local or imported—exposes the country to significant economic and geopolitical risks.
Industry currently accounts for 24% of national gas consumption, with nearly half used in oil refining and coal coking. The residential sector consumes 15% of this resource, mainly for cooking. These two segments are identified as priorities for any demand reduction strategy.
Expected gains in energy efficiency
The study estimates that targeted improvements in the direct and indirect thermal processes of industry could enable an annual reduction of more than 14,000 GBTU, equivalent to a 14% decrease in industrial gas consumption. These measures include technological upgrades and modernisation of existing facilities, with short-term implementation potential.
In households, replacing 10% of gas stoves with electric or induction appliances would result in an estimated reduction of 6,061 GBTU in 2030. This transition could be complemented by replacing 30% of domestic water heaters, allowing for an additional 1,020 GBTU reduction in the same year. Combined, these efforts would avoid gas imports valued at $190mn as early as 2030 and up to $2bn over ten years.
Strategic allocation of resources
The authors highlight that the cumulative savings would represent two full years of industrial gas use or three years of residential consumption. The report recommends directing gas use toward strategic sectors while reducing its share in applications that can be electrified at lower cost.
Energy security has become a national issue in Colombia, where the path to greater autonomy depends on strict economic trade-offs. In response to the projected deficit, analysts call for a rational approach based on immediately available alternatives.
Wilmar Suárez, Latin America analyst, stated: “The scenario Colombia is heading towards requires quick decisions in sectors where demand reduction is the cheapest to implement.”
