The gradual lifting of economic sanctions on Syria marks a strategic shift in the European Union’s (EU) Middle East policy. These measures, implemented since 2011, were imposed in response to human rights violations by Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Following the regime’s collapse in December 2024, the EU is pursuing a conditional approach aimed at stimulating the country’s reconstruction.
Syria’s energy reserves, while modest by regional standards, remain a critical asset for revitalizing an economy in ruins. Before the 2011 conflict, Syria had 2.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, mainly located in the Deir ez-Zor and Hassakeh regions. Additionally, its natural gas reserves were estimated at 8.5 trillion cubic feet, concentrated in areas around Palmyra and Homs. These resources represented a significant share of the nation’s revenue, albeit negligible on a global scale.
A Potential to Rebuild
The Syrian civil war caused the collapse of its energy sector, previously a key contributor to the national economy. By 2018, Syria’s oil production had dropped to just 24,000 barrels per day, a 90% decline compared to 2010 levels. Energy infrastructure, heavily damaged or controlled by armed factions, now requires significant investment for rehabilitation.
In this context, the EU’s decision to ease sanctions is seen as an opportunity to attract international players to Syria’s energy sector. However, this lifting comes with conditions. Brussels demands that Syria’s new government commit to protecting minority rights, implementing institutional reforms, and ensuring transparent governance.
Gradual and Reversible Measures
The technical details of this lifting process are under development. Among the initial steps, the EU plans to partially lift the embargo on importing crude oil and petroleum products from Syria. Restrictions on foreign investments in Syria’s oil and gas industries may also be eased, but in a controlled manner to prevent misuse of funds.
Certain sanctions targeting specific entities linked to the former regime are expected to remain in place. This approach aims to ensure that former regime officials do not directly benefit from the economic recovery.
Implications for the Regional Energy Market
If Syria’s oil and gas production resumes, it could play a modest yet strategic role in the region’s energy dynamics. Syria could potentially become a secondary supplier to its neighbors or serve as a transit point for energy infrastructure linking the Middle East to Europe.
However, challenges remain. Investor skepticism, logistical hurdles, and the need to comply with environmental and governance standards complicate short-term prospects. Analysts predict that fully restoring the sector will require years of work and substantial financial commitments.
Nonetheless, this decision sends a strong signal from the European Union, which seeks to play a key role in stabilizing and rebuilding a country at the crossroads of strategic regional and global energy interests.
