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An Unexpected Jump in U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

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Commercial crude oil reserves rose sharply last week, according to figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a surprise for the market, which was expecting a slight contraction.

US crude oil inventories: Surprise rise of 5.9 million barrels in July

In the week ending July 7, commercial inventories rose by 5.9 million barrels, whereas analysts were expecting a drop of 50,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg consensus. This increase is due in particular to the fall in crude oil exports (-45% over one week), which fell to their lowest level since the beginning of January. It is also linked to the sudden slowdown in US demand.

Oil products delivered in the USA, an indicator that measures demand, fell by 12%, again touching the lowest level since early 2023. The increase in commercial inventories can also be explained by the slight contraction of 400,000 barrels in strategic reserves. Last but not least, a major statistical adjustment led the EIA to add 9.9 million barrels to the volumes arriving on the US market.

In most cases, these modifications are intended to rectify statistical approximations from previous periods. This exogenous factor, unrelated to oil activity during the week under review, put the sharp rise in commercial inventories into perspective.

Oil Prices Track Rise in U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Prices were in the green before the publication, but remained up after the EIA report was released. At around 14:55 GMT, a barrel of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for August delivery was up 1.48% at 75.94 dollars. The rise in commercial reserves is all the more surprising given that the utilization rate of US refineries rose sharply to 93.7%, compared with 91.1% in the previous period, the highest level for a month.

Refinery activity was driven by exports of petroleum products, which came close to the all-time record for the United States set in October. On the production side, after rising to a post-pandemic peak, US crude oil volumes fell back slightly, to 12.3 million barrels per day, compared with 12.4 previously.

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